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KVS (Key-Volume Strategies)

Short Term Market Services and Systems

1734 Brevard Highway   Suite 180

Hendersonville NC 28791

 

 

Dear Trading Enthusiast:



You have probably just browsed "Op40", one of the two most popular investment products of Key-Volume Strategies Inc (KVS).  We are in our 39th year of publication. We do not update our web site frequently because we are in daily contact with subscribers and system purchasers through telephone and email hotlines, thus our subscribers and system users are updated continuously.  Our web site serves the purpose of initial contact, so you know what we offer and how long we've been serving Wall Street.  We also publish the KVS Market Releases every 4 to 6 weeks, mainly for technical education and timing, and special features on systems and tools.  More about them below.

The other of our two most popular products is the just mentioned KVS Market Service which produces our Market Releases and special features. Projected market tops and bottoms are coordinated with the trading of index options.  After you finish this introductory letter and browse further, you'll see several full recent market releases, as well as excerpts from earlier releases thru the years, so you may get a seasoned feeling of confidence.  Once a month the second part of the release features an Op40 performance update, and Q & A for system users.

As you gradually become familiar with our work, you'll notice that through these many challenging and eventful years of market rises and declines, our main thrust has been technical innovation.  What we offer is exclusive to our subscribers and system users.  Options "40 In 4" which we nicknamed Op40 is a standalone product to trade SP100 (OEX) calls and puts regularly, with a remarkably small amount of daily attention.  The trading edge formula of Op40 does not even require a computer, and no option watching during the day is called for!

 

"Op40" has started its 13th year!  Because of this milestone event, the first release we're displaying below is #955, an early copy soon to be supplemented with an update on Magnetic Bands.  The table of these bands enables users to do their buying in the strongest support bands, and their selling in the strongest resistance bands. --- As you go through the Anniversary Q&A you'll find 4 special offers. They're presented in Q&A pair #11. Add 1 month to the offer of your choice as a bonus for ordering Op40, or an extension of your current KVS services, on the occasion of our anniversary.

 

PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS:

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       KVS  #957  FALL 2008:  1. AUTO TRADE THE KVS OPTION SYSTEM “DTE2008”:  DOWN MARKET TRADE AVERAGE +26%;  2. SHORT TERM MARKET CYCLES: NEW “BEAR PHASE” INEVITABLE;  3. “OP40” YEAR #13!

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We have completed our last DTE2008 performance task, to maintain a +25% or better trade average in an environment of “unpredictable” whipsaws. The task was to recognize unusually high risk of loss in advance, and bypass the responsible signals. Period #16 in the 10 month summary below (Oct 2007 into Aug 2008) presented no fewer than 5 real life test cases for the “inevitability” of loss. Indeed, actual trades incurred losses, but our Loss Bypass Screen, developed and back tested as part of this last task, ignored these signals and bypassed the losses. Retroactive application to periods before #16 would have enhanced returns further, but we felt that period #16 by itself sufficed as a proving ground.

 

Your first Bonus as an Auto Trader will be a detailed description of how “inevitable” loss can be recognized in advance, and side stepped.  In your auto trade account, recognizing and side stepping such a high risk profile will be evident from the absence of trade recommendations for certain days. Trade omission rationale will be amplified by educational footnotes. You won’t need to take any special action, the auto trade process will simply not allow certain signals to generate trades. But if you have one or more other trading accounts that you manage yourself: then knowing the Loss Bypass Screen may well become one of your most appreciated assets. --- Here is your 10 month DTE2008 snapshot: it was during this period that the Dow fell 20% (even increased it to 25%), and thereby issued a traditional Bear Market signal:

 

 

PERIOD SIGNAL RANGE  #OF SIG  Q%   R%  COMPOS CUMUL CUM SIGS CUM AVGE

====== ============= ======= ==== ==== ====== ===== ======== ========

   1   OCT 31-NOV 14    11   +265 +295  +280% + 280%    11    + 25%

   2   NOV 15-NOV 30    11   +139 +183  +161% + 441%    22    + 20%

   3   DEC  3-DEC 17    11   +297 +183  +240% + 681%    33    + 21%

   4   DEC 18-JAN  4    11   +241 +259  +250% + 931%    44    + 21%

   5   JAN  7-JAN 22    11   +397 +889  +643% +1574%    55    + 29%

   6   JAN 23-FEB  6    11   +551 +562  +556% +2130%    66    + 32%

   7   FEB  7-FEB 22    11   +153 +  6  + 80% +2210%    77    + 29%

   8   FEB 25-MAR 10    11   +310 +384  +347% +2557%    88    + 29%

   9   MAR 11-MAR 26    11   +331 +404  +368% +2925%    99    + 30%

  10   MAR 27-APR 16    11   +162 +625  +393% +3318%   110    + 30%

  11   APR 17-MAY  2    13   +224 +563  +394% +3712%   123    + 30%

  12   MAY  5-MAY 21    11   +168 + 84  +126% +3838%   134    + 29%

  13   MAY 22-JUN  6    12   + 96 +326  +211% +4049%   146    + 28%   

  14   JUN  9-JUN 24    11   +152 - 41  + 56% +4105%   157    + 26%

  15   JUN 25-JUL 14    11   +233 + 67  +150% +4255%   168    + 25%

  16   JUL 15-AUG  7    12   +187 +535  +361% +4616%   180    + 26%

 

The last entry in the record, in the three right columns, shows that the cumulative gain on 180 traded signals was +4616%. The average gain was +26%: 4616 divided by 180. If you trade index options systematically, with daily attention, this should not surprise you.  Anticipating your questions:   How long does a trade last? One to 4 sessions. How does KVS get a signal? By analyzing price patterns and market movements daily, using original KVS formulas. How does KVS share the signal with its system users? By email near 10PM ET. The email advises, for next day: specific option; specific buy price; specific sell price. If the option is still held at the end of the next day: that night's email advises a new sell price, or stays with the previous.

 

Which index and expiration month does KVS use? All signals are for specific SP100 ("OEX") options, expiring in the current month, unless the time left is less than 2 weeks; in that case the following month is picked. "Can I substitute a different index, if I think it will do better?" SP100 price action correlates well with the price action of other indices. If KVS recommends a call, you buy a call as well, on your chosen index.  If KVS recommends a put, you buy a put as well, on your chosen index. Track KVS results, and your own, for a few days. Be satisfied that you're getting comparable gains. Typically: 

 

The KVS option choice achieves +30% to +40% on a winning trade. Losses are no more than 4 out of 11. Average loss is less than  average gain. These results should be what you get from your chosen index as well, as a minimum. If your choice under performs the KVS choice more often than not: raise or lower your strike price, till your performance is on par. Or simply trade the exact options KVS chooses: any stock broker can buy and sell OEX options, and no margin is needed. Starting capital of $3000 to $5000 is common.

 

Why does KVS measure its system performance in groups of 11 to 13 signals? It takes 2 weeks, sometimes an extra day or two, to get 11 trading signals. Summarizing results for 2 weeks at a time enables frequent performance comparisons, reflecting the system's ability to be consistently profitable, ranging from highly profitable as periods 5 & 6, to modestly or marginally profitable as periods 7 & 14.

 

What do the headings mean for the 5 columns that track the percent achieved?  Q% = Quick Exits. These were sales within 5 sessions (commonly within 3) at predetermined prices. R% = Relaxed Exits. Slower sales, typically 1 day past quick exits, at the opening. Composite = Q% and R% averaged. This is the key performance measure. Cumulative = Composite results cumulated.  Cum Avge = Cumulative Average. Composite results divided by cumulated signals.

 

Do the results for 10 months suggest a trend?  Yes. Note in the last column that the average exceeded +29% for 4 periods (#6, 9, 10, 11), then eased down into the 20's, ending on an up tick with the current +26%. Since DTE2008 was designed to do particularly well in a recessionary or "Bear Market" environment, the fact that results have moved beyond their peaks indicates that the strong hold of the bear has been weakening. If you prefer to trade call options to puts, to benefit from a rising market and improving economy, you'll find that the daily signal mix will gradually shift more and more to favor call options, and puts will return to their traditional role of capitalizing on downside reactions.

 

 

Time to favor a veteran "all weather" system like Op40 again, in its 13th year?  We welcome new and renewing users to either system. After the Short Term Market Cycles update, you’ll find several pages on “Op40”, the “do it yourself” trader’s option system.

Should you prefer that a broker familiar with KVS trade a system for you: choose DTE2008 because it is a specific entry & exit vehicle, thus especially suitable for Auto Trading.  For details: send an email to kvshotlines@aol.com. Include your phone number, and say you're interested in trading DTE2008. We'll respond with the contact information, email and phone, for our Auto Trade broker. You make your own contact for account setup, and information on rebates based on trading frequency, to reduce or eliminate your cost.  These are pre-requisites, so that KVS may provide the daily trading advice to the broker:

You need to be a current or new KVS/DTE2008 subscriber. Choose from the special offers below. The $544 offer for 6 months includes a $155 administrative fee. If you’re a current subscriber, with 6 or more months KVS/DTE2008 service left, then you can start with the $155 administrative fee as your only expense. These fees are exclusively for KVS, as provider of the daily advice by email. Same advice is provided to our Auto Trade broker, the night before each trading day, and to individual subscribers who do not Auto Trade.

After you have your response from our Auto Trade broker:  Decide whether you wish an Auto Trade arrangement, and before your trading account is set up, take care of your KVS subscription or administrative fee by email:  kvshotlines@aol.com. For those who also wish to phone, our System Support number has 24 hour voice mail: 877-350-3796.

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** What are the current special offers for Op40 and DTE2008,  separately or together?   If you are not a KVS system or email hotline user yet: DTE2008 is $544 with 6 months nightly email. KVS Market Timing, with Dow (DJI) targets in both directions, updated daily, is a separate extra feature provided at no charge.  Op40 is $545 with 4 months nightly email. Longer term Op40 offers are not available because of quota. You're welcome to both the $544 and $545 offers as a combo, with an 11% discount. Extra bonus with the combo: 2 more months of Op40 email, so you'll have the same duration for the nightly email of both systems. Cost of this 6 month package: $969. Review above whether you’re eligible for the $155 fee only.

 

How to Order:  Your choice of email to kvshotlines@aol.com or phone order: 877-350-3796 or 800-334-0411 x12D. Use Visa, Master Card or American Express. Prefer to mail a check? Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E Lincoln Ave , White Plains NY 10604 . Early response gets an unadvertised bonus. Thank you for choosing KVS systems and services, our 39th year.

** Introduction to KVS features, with Q&A:  If you clicked on the Auto Trade link on the KVS web site to get here, this took you on a shortcut past informative text which we recommend that you read now, by scrolling back to the beginning of "KVS #957 Fall 2008".

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How to Order:  Your choice of email to kvshotlines@aol.com or phone order: 877-350-3796 or 800-334-0411 x12D. Use Visa, Master Card or American Express. Prefer to mail a check? Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E Lincoln Ave , White Plains NY 10604 . Early response gets an unadvertised bonus. Thank you for choosing KVS systems and services, our 39th year.

 

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Short Term Market Cycles: New “Bear Phase” Coming; Profits Taken on Previous Recovery

 

These cycles were discovered by KVS in early 2007. They are tracked on the nightly KVS Market Hotline: a second nightly email for DTE2008 subscribers and Auto Traders. This is a bonus in addition to the Loss Bypass Screen.

 

Each short term market cycle consists of three phases:  1. Bear Phase,  2. Turnaround Phase,  3. Recovery Phase.  Next on the agenda is a new Bear Phase. It will be signaled by a 240 point or larger down closing by the Dow (DJI). Might you have to wait quite a while for that?  Not likely. The average interval between Bear Phase signals has been 22 calendar days, and the last such signal occurred on July 28. What came next? The Turnaround Phase followed unusually quickly, the next day. Its entry formula suggested buying at DJI 11265. This was accomplished on August 1, and the Recovery Phase was in force. Its profit taking formula targeted 11681 for a gain of +416 points. Profits are normally in the 400 to 600 points range.

 

On Aug 6 the profit materialized, and an extended recovery followed. We needed to use other KVS market tools to project a goal above 11681. The KVS Market Hotline uses several such tools regularly. It announced that based on our special work with Big 1 Day Changes (DJI 90 points or more at the close),  a further rise into the 11932-11947 range is justified. On Aug 11 this range was reached, with a theoretical high of 11934. Theoretical highs and lows on the Dow are more accurate measures of overbought and oversold extremes than the actual numbers that you see on computer and TV screens all day. Theoretical numbers become available shortly after the close. We get them from the CBOE, which is also our source for option prices.

 

Just two sessions past the 11934 high, the DJI was already back down to 11377, a substantial 557 points. This swift drop was punctuated by single day down closings of -140 and -110 points. That was a total of -250. Are we in a new Bear Phase? No, we did not get a single day down closing of -240 or more negative. So the wait continues. Meanwhile the KVS Market Hotline keeps its users well supplied with market targets in both directions. And for option traders, DTE2008 and Op40 leave little room for inactivity. The balance of this report focuses on Options “40 In 4” (Op40), including a 13th anniversary Q&A

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 13TH YEAR CONTINUES - LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

OPTION BUYER’S ADVANTAGE: ANY KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!

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Already in its 13th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-117   1605    1269:336    +54540%        + 34%    1363.5

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

  150      12       8: 4      + 260%        + 22%       6.5

  151      13      12: 1      + 680%        + 52%      17.0

  152      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  153      14      11: 3      + 500%        + 36%      12.5

  154      14      11: 3      + 420%        + 30%      10.5

  155      13      11: 2      + 560%        + 43%      14.0

  156      13       9: 4      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  157      13       8: 5      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  158      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  159      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  160      12       8: 4      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  161      15      13: 2      + 680%        + 45%      17.0

  162      12       8: 4      + 160%        + 13%       4.0

  163      13      10: 3      + 400%        + 31%      10.0

  164      15      10: 5      + 260%        + 17%       6.5

  165       9       6: 3      + 300%        + 33%       7.5

  166      15      13: 2      + 680%        + 45%      17.0

  167      11       9: 2      + 420%        + 38%      10.5

 ALL 167 2298    1792:506    +75960%        + 33%    1899.0

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The 78% win ratio (1792 gains/2298 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (75960/2298) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next pages:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 

KVS #957,”Op40” periods #162-168

 

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

JAN31     1    FEB665C    7    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 1.0   2.70  3.80

FEB 1+    2      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -65   ..  ..  - 1.5  - 0.5   2.07  0.65

    4     3    FEB660C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -65   ..  ..  - 1.5  - 2.0   0.90  0.30

    5     4    MAR530P    7    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  - 1.0   2.55  4.00

    6+    5      “”      10   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  - 0.5   3.17  3.80

    7     6      “”       6   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5    0.0   2.77  3.30

    8            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   11            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   12     7    MAR670C    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -3   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 0.5   2.42  2.35

   13+    8      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -6   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 1.0   2.50  2.35

   14     9      “”       7    ..  +50   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0    0.0   1.57  2.35

   15            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   19            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   20    10    MAR660C    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 1.0   2.25  3.30

   21    11    MAR560P    6    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.0   2.20  3.10

   22            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.0

   25    12    MAR660C    8    ..   ..   ..  +85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0

***   PERIOD 162:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 4.0

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER” (more below)

               

FEB26     1    MAR660C    9    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.5   2.10  3.40

   27+    2      “”      10    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.5   1.89  2.70

   28            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5

   29     3    MAR565P    8    ..   ..   ..  +90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.5  + 4.5   2.15  4.10

MAR 3     4      “”       3    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   2.05  4.10

    4           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5

    5            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5

    6     5    MAR565P    6    ..   ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 7.5   2.47  3.90

    7     6      “”       6    ..   ..  +50   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 8.5   2.55  3.90

   10     7    APR510P   10    ..   ..   ..  +80   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +10.5   1.48  2.70

   11     8    APR660C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..  +12   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.5   1.97  2.20

   12            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.5

   13+    9    APR660C    5    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +12.0   1.33  2.20

   14    10    APR510P    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -70  - 1.5  +10.5   3.00  0.80

   17    11      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  + 9.0   1.27  0.40

   18    12    APR550P    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.0   2.25  4.70

   19    13    APR530P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -55  ..  - 1.0  +10.0   1.75  0.75

   20            (C)      6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.0  [2.50] ....

        ***   PERIOD 163:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………        +10.0

 

MAR24     1    APR660C    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -60  - 1.5  - 1.5   2.25  0.80

   25            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 1.5

   26     2    APR570P    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  - 0.5   2.35  3.40

   27     3      “”       5    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 0.5   2.30  3.40

   28+    4      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  - 1.0   2.45  0.80

   31     5      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -45  ..  - 1.0  - 2.0   1.00  0.55

APR 1     6    APR655C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..  +18   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 2.0   2.45  2.90

    2+    7      “”       4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  - 1.0   1.97  2.90

    3     8      “”       7    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 0.5   1.55  2.50

    4            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

    7            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

    8            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

    9     9    MAY570P    4    ..   ..   ..  +90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.5   2.53  4.90

   10            (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5

   11    10    MAY550P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  + 1.0   2.28  0.80

   14    11      “”       6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0    0.0   1.07  0.50

   15           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   16    12    MAY655C    2    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   2.32  6.40

   17+   13      “”       6    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 3.0   4.60  6.40

   18+   14    MAY665C    7    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.5   1.92  3.10

   21    15      “”       4    ..   ..   ..  +95   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   1.58  3.10

***   PERIOD 164:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 6.5

 

Companion System to “Op40”: “9 to 1 EdgeFinder”:  While the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (called “9 to 1” for short) has its own trading rules and can be traded as an independent system, it gives relatively few signals, and is most suitable as an enhancer for Op40. When both systems give a trading signal for the same option, consider investing a larger amount than you’d commit typically.  Signals flagged by + (plus sign) qualified for this technique in the 3 periods above, and more on the next pages. In total, the last 6 of 7 performance periods are final, and the 7th (#168) is previewed, incomplete as we write this.

 

Total “RPS” points for the flagged signals were 8.5, counting Op40 signals alone. Committing 1.5 times the usual capital, to utilize Op40 and “9 to 1” teamwork, increased RPS points to 13.0. Each RPS point represents a 40% to 59% gain. Counting the minimum 40%:  Total Op40 percent result for the flagged signals was +340%. Total from Op40/9 to 1 teamwork for the same signals was +520%.

 

The previous page gives long term results and includes a special offer for the two-system combo. Notice that the difference is modest: $545 for Op40 with 3 months nightly email hotline (comes by 8:30PM ET before each trading day), and $675 including the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” with its own email hotline the same days. The remaining two pages, which complete Rel #957, include additional insights into “9 to 1”, see Q9 of the “Anniversary Q&A”.

KVS #957 continued

 

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

APR22+           (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   23+    1    MAY665C    3                 +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   1.62  3.10

   24     2      “”       3    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0   2.02  4.70

   25     3      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.0   2.03  4.70

   28     4      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 8.0   1.57  4.70

   29+           (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 8.0

   30+    5    MAY605P    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  ..  - 1.0  + 7.0   1.07  0.60

MAY 1            (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

    2+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

    5+    6    JUN590P    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 8.0   2.57  3.80

    6     7    JUN690C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -16   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 7.5   0.89  0.75

    7     8    JUN590P    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -19   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 7.0   3.20  2.60

    8            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0  [3.20]

    9+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   12+           (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   13           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   14            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   15     9    JUN675C    6   +30   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 7.5   2.75  3.60

   16           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

***   PERIOD 165:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER” (more below)

               

MAY19     1    JUN675C    3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0  - 1.0   0.91  0.45

   20     2    JUN605P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 1.0   2.30  5.00

   21     3    JUN595P    7    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.0   2.25  3.50

   22+    4      “”       4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 3.0   2.42  3.50

   23     5      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 6   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.0   2.35  2.50

   27     6    JUN660C    6    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.5   1.52  2.60

   28     7      “”       4    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 6.0

   29     8      “”       9    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -35   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 5.5   1.97  1.20

   30            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5

JUN 2     9    JUN600P    5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.5   1.67  5.20

    3+   10      “”       7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 9.5   2.35  5.20

    4    11      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.5   1.52  5.60

    5    12    JUN615P    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +13.5   3.05 10.30

    6    13    JUN590P    4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +15.0   2.07  3.30

    9            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +15.0

   10+           (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +15.0

   11    14    JUL550P    4   +25   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  +15.5   2.75  3.45

   12    15      “”       6    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +17.0   1.87  3.00

   13            (9)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +17.0

        ***   PERIOD 166: RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +17.0

 

JUN16     1    JUL650C    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  - 1.5   1.77  0.60

   17     2    JUL555P    4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5    0.0   2.13  3.50

   18     3      “”       8    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.5   2.07  3.50

   19     4      “”       4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 3.0   2.77  4.50

   20     5      “”       6    ..   ..  +75   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.5   2.55  4.50

   23            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.5

   24            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.5

   25     6    JUL625C    5    ..   ..   ..   ..  - 8   ..   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 4.0   0.60  0.55

   26     7    JUL540P    6    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 5.0   1.87  2.55

   27            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0

   30            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0

JUL 1     8    JUL610C    6   +35   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 5.5   0.95  1.50

    2     9    JUL540P    6    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 7.0   1.60  2.55

    3            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

    7    10    AUG500P    3    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 8.5   1.47  2.40

    8            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 8.5

    9    11    AUG510P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +10.5   2.75  6.50

   10            (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.5

 ***  PERIOD 167: RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………          +10.5

 

 

Preview of Period #168, into August:   Our next report will begin with period #168 and end with #170. Meanwhile, the bulk of period #168 is already behind us, so we can  give you preliminary statistics now.

 

When period #168 is finished, we expect its results to be very close to this:

 

Number of signals = 16 or 17.  Winning signals = 10 or 11.  Total RPS = 9 to 11.  Total % achieved = +380 to +440.  To learn more about “RPS”, review Q4 thru Q6 and their answers, in the Anniversary Q&A on the final page of Rel #957.

 

Long term win ratio will remain 78%.  Long term average per trade will remain +33%.  Thank you for choosing KVS products.

 

ANNIVERSARY Q&A:  “OP40” IN  ITS 13TH YEAR!   (KVS Release #957 concludes with this page)

 

Q1: What determines the option choice?  A1: “TE” the Trading Edge. It does double duty. The same time it tells you whether the signaled direction favors a call or a put, it names exactly which call or put. KVS knows from many years of experience that SP100 (OEX) options, that last closed in the 1.50-3.50 range, and expire in the current month with at least 2 weeks left to expiration, are the best candidates for 1 to 4 day trades for 40% profit or more.

 

Q2: Can you go a little further into computing “TE” ? What data does the formula need?  A2: Two options in the price range just mentioned, a call and a put, are handed over every evening to the “TE” formula, for a few price comparisons. Only the day’s open, high, low, and closing prices are used. Percent differences, between certain prices in this “data base” of only 8 prices, are converted by the formula into values normally in the 0 to 10 range. Values are summed separately for the call and the put. The option with the higher sum has the edge. In case of a tie: TE = 0 and there’s no trading signal for next day.

 

 Q3: If I’d rather not compute the TE myself, can I get it already computed, from the hotline?  A3: Yes, you can.  The most liked feature of the hotline, your choice of voice or Email, is that it gives you already determined values and decisions.

 

Q4: The Performance columns, on the signal summary pages, show two values. Do these numbers evaluate the performance of each signal? Are they like a “report card” for the system?  A4: A good name! The left number is the grade that Op40 gets for handling the signal, profitably or not. We call this grade “RPS” (Rated Performance Score): it rates Op40 performance with a   score. The right number “CUMUL” cumulates the individual scores for a full performance period, commonly 4 weeks.

 

Q5: Can you give an example or two for the scoring? A5: For every 20% the option rises, RPS =0.5. For a 40% rise, on up to 59%, RPS = 1. For a 60% rise, on up to 79%, RPS = 1.5. For an 80% or larger rise, RPS = 2. With RPS values included, the signal tracking format not only shows the price advances (and occasional declines), but a  report card  for Op40 as well.

 

Q6: Where do you measure the price rises from?  A6: From the average buy price for the given signal. It is the mid point between the next day’s opening, which is your first opportunity to act, and the day’s low, the best available price.

 

Q7: If I recall right from previous Op40 descriptions: you chose the full name “Options 40 In 4” because the system objective is a 40% or larger gain within 4 sessions?  A7: Yes, exactly. Relatively few gains turn out to be less than 40%, and there’s an occasional loss. Per trade average over the long run has been +33%, see the summary for 168 periods on previous pages.

 

Q8: I see a percent size breakout of the results. Why not show it all in one column?  A8: Most system users like to see how the small, medium, and large returns are distributed, for an easy scan of relative frequency. The “RPS” numbers are all in a single column: multiply by 40, and that’s the percent Op40 gets credit for, not to exceed 80%. That’s the practical limit, because traders seldom try for more, with such quick turnaround, 4 days or less.  We do show rises up to 100%, but RPS =2 is max.

 

Q9: The record shows Op40 doing quite well, and for a long time now. Why use a second system to enhance Op40? A9: The  “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (short name “9 to 1”) started in 2000. It uses the same options as Op40 in its signal logic and buy/sell formulas, but with different emphasis: accept fewer signals, but each with a 90% probability of profit within 3 sessions. Teamwork has been beneficial for both systems, here’s an excerpt from previous summaries for the 5 ways it has worked:

 

There have been 5 ways for teamwork to enhance results:   1. Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but “9 to 1” traded. 2. Op40 had a signal in one direction, “9 to 1” had one in the other direction. To assure sufficient volatility for profit in both directions: “9 to 1” checks how high TE is, and if it’s 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own signal.  3. “9 to 1” bought twice.  4. Op40 loss prevented or offset by“9 to 1”. 5. Both systems chose the same option, suggesting higher $ commitment.

 

Q10: I misplaced the 1996 charter offer. Am I still entitled to it to get your lowest rate?  A10: We’re celebrating the 39th year for KVS (Key-Volume Strategies) and 13th year for Op40. You’re welcome to the 1996 charter offer, restored for 15 days. Review the Op40 introduction, which includes the charter offer, on our web site: www.key-volume.com.

 

Q11: How do I get started?  A11: Each offer includes system instructions, step by step: choosing your option, buying your option, selling your option. You also get nightly hotline for 3 months, your choice of voice or email. Order with credit card for fastest start (Visa, Master Card, American Express), or mail a check. Specify A or B, or if you already have Op40: C or D.

 

Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling 800-334-0411 x12K. We’ll be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E. Lincoln Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Thank you for choosing KVS!  We’re proud of  39  years of systems and services.  

 

Offer “A”: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call “the hotline”, total $545.

Offer “B”: Op40 and “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (“9 to 1”) with 3 months nightly email hotline for both, total $675.

Offer “C”:  If you already have the Op40 system: “9 to 1” system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.

Offer “D”: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems (extension or renewal) $265.

 

Anniversary Bonus!  Add 1 month to the offer of your choice. To assure this bonus, do order within 10 days . Thank you!


KVS #955 review

*********************************************************************

"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 13TH YEAR BEGINS -  LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

OPTION BUYER’S ADVANTAGE: ANY KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!

*********************************************************************

 

Already in its 13th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-109   1517    1205:312    +52340%        + 34%    1308.5

  110      11       9: 2      + 440%        + 40%      11.0

  111      10       8: 2      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  112      10       6: 4      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  113      10       8: 2      + 180%        + 18%       4.5

  114      11       9: 2      + 360%        + 33%       9.0

  115      16      10: 6      + 180%        + 11%       4.5

  116       8       7: 1      + 240%        + 30%       6.0

  117      12       7: 5      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

  150      12       8: 4      + 260%        + 22%       6.5

  151      13      12: 1      + 680%        + 52%      17.0

  152      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  153      14      11: 3      + 500%        + 36%      12.5

  154      14      11: 3      + 420%        + 30%      10.5

  155      13      11: 2      + 560%        + 43%      14.0

  156      13       9: 4      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  157      13       8: 5      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  158      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

 ALL 158 2182    1705:477    +72460%        + 33%    1811.5

 

The 78% win ratio (1705 gains/2182 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (72460/2182) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

AUG14     1    SEP560P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   2.10  6.30

   15     2      “”       5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -22   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 1.5   3.35  2.60

   16     3      “”       4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 3.0   1.60  2.60

   17            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.0            

   20+    4    SEP715C    4   +37   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 3.5   1.82  2.50

   21+    5      “”       2   +33   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 4.0   1.88  2.50

   22+    6      “”       4   +22   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 4.5   1.76  2.15

   23+    7    SEP610P    5    ..   ..   ..  +90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   1.75  3.40

   24     8    SEP715C    7    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 7.5   1.92  2.80

   27            (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5            

   28     9    SEP600P    8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -60  - 1.5  + 6.0   1.75  0.70

   29    10    SEP625P    4   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 6.5   2.65  3.20

   30           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5            

   31+           (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5            

SEP 4    11    SEP715C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -45  ..  - 1.0  + 5.5   1.92  1.00

    5            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5   1.93  2.30

    6           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5

    7          OCT560P    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5

   10    12      “”       2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -33   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 5.0   1.35  0.90

   11    13    OCT730C    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.0   2.60  5.50

***   PERIOD 156:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.0

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +10.5

               

SEP12     1    OCT730C   10    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.5   3.40  5.50

   13+    2      “”      10    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.5   3.23  7.60

   14+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.5

   17+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.5            

   18+    3    OCT740C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -39   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 3.0   3.12  1.90

   19     4      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  ..  - 1.0  + 2.0   2.35  1.35

   20     5      “”       4   +36   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 2.5   2.02  2.75

   21           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5

   24     6    OCT660P    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  ..  - 1.0  + 1.5   2.42  1.40

   25+    7      “”       6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -31   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 1.0   1.45  1.00

   26+           (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 1.0            

   27+    8    OCT735C    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.0   1.95  4.30

   28+           (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.0

OCT 1     9    OCT740C    6    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 4.0   1.53  2.15

    2            (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.0            

    3+   10    OCT690P    3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -38   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 3.5   1.29  0.80

    4+   11    OCT735C    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 4.5   2.92  4.30

    5    12      “”       8    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 6.0   2.55  4.30

    8+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.0            

    9    13    NOV760C    7    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 7.5   1.73  2.90

   10           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5            

***   PERIOD 157:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +20.5

 

OCT11            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0             

   12     1    NOV760C    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0  - 1.0   1.20  0.60

   15     2    NOV660P    7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 1.0   2.57  5.20

   16+    3      “”       5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.0   1.95  5.20

   17+    4      “”       3    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 5.0   2.10  5.20

   18+           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0             

   19+    5    NOV635P    5    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 5   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0   2.37  2.50

   22     6      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.0   1.23  2.50

   23            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0            

   24            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0            

   25+    7    NOV735C    5    ..   ..   .. + 85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 9.0   2.75  5.20

   26+    8    NOV740C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..  +15   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 9.0   2.60  3.00

   29+    9      “”       7   +28   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 9.5   2.35  3.00

   30    10    NOV675C    4    ..   ..   .. + 90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.5   1.42  2.70

   31    11    NOV740C    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -70  ..  - 1.5  +10.0   0.87  0.25

NOV 1    12    NOV660P    7    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +11.5   2.00  3.30

    2+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +11.5            

    5            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +11.5            

    6    13    DEC750C    6    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  +12.5   1.72  2.55            

    7            (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +12.5            

    8    14    DEC580P    1    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  +13.5   2.75  4.00

***   PERIOD 158:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +13.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +24.5

 

 

Anniversary Q & A   Q1: In all your record updates you stress that “Op40” has been the most popular KVS option system, since it started in 1996. What accounts for this?  A1: The main reason has been the accuracy of the plain math that gives you the Trading Edge (“TE”) every day. Scan the TRDG EDGE column of the record (the 4th column above).  If TE=0, there’s no signal to trade. If TE=5 or above (seldom higher than 10), you trade the current option choice (to the left of TE). If TE is in the 1 to 4 range, additional logic determines whether to trade or not.  Q2: What determines the option choice?  A2: See next page.

 

ANNIVERSARY Q&A:  “OP40” STARTS ITS 13TH YEAR!  (Continued from previous page)

 

Q2: What determines the option choice?  A2: “TE” the Trading Edge. It does double duty. The same time it tells you whether the signaled direction favors a call or a put, it names exactly which call or put. KVS knows from many years of experience that SP100 (OEX) options, that last closed in the 1.50-3.50 range, and expire in the current month with at least 2 weeks left to expiration, are the best candidates for 1 to 4 day trades for 40% profit or more.

 

Q3: Can you go a little further into computing “TE” ? What data does the formula need?  A3: Two options in the price range just mentioned, a call and a put, are handed over every evening to the “TE” formula, for a few price comparisons. Only the day’s open, high, low, and closing prices are used. Percent differences, between certain prices in this “data base” of only 8 prices, are converted by the formula into values normally in the 0 to 10 range. Values are summed separately for the call and the put. The option with the higher sum has the edge. In case of a tie: TE = 0 and there’s no trading signal for next day.

 

 Q4: If I’d rather not compute the TE myself, can I get it already computed, from the hotline?  A4: Yes, you can.  The most liked feature of the hotline, your choice of voice or Email, is that it gives you already determined values and decisions.

 

Q5: The Performance columns, on the signal summary pages, show two values. Do these numbers evaluate the performance of each signal? Are they like a “report card” for the system?  A5: A good name! The left number is the grade that Op40 gets for handling the signal, profitably or not. We call this grade “RPS” (Rated Performance Score): it rates Op40 performance with a   score. The right number “CUMUL” cumulates the individual scores for a full performance period, commonly 4 weeks.

 

Q6: Can you give an example or two for the scoring? A6: For every 20% the option rises, RPS =0.5. For a 40% rise, on up to 59%, RPS = 1. For a 60% rise, on up to 79%, RPS = 1.5. For an 80% or larger rise, RPS = 2. With RPS values included, the signal tracking format not only shows the price advances (and occasional declines), but a  report card  for Op40 as well.

 

Q7: Where do you measure the price rises from?  A7: From the average buy price for the given signal. It is the mid point between the next day’s opening, which is your first opportunity to act, and the day’s low, the best available price.

 

Q8: If I recall right from previous Op40 descriptions: you chose the full name “Options 40 In 4” because the system objective is a 40% or larger gain within 4 sessions?  A8: Yes, exactly. Relatively few gains turn out to be less than 40%, and there’s an occasional loss. Per trade average over the long run has been +33%, see the summary for 158 periods on a previous page.

 

Q9: I see a percent size breakout of the results. Why not show it all in one column?  A9: Most system users like to see how the small, medium, and large returns are distributed, for an easy scan of relative frequency. The “RPS” numbers are all in a single column: multiply by 40, and that’s the percent Op40 gets credit for, not to exceed 80%. That’s the practical limit, because traders seldom try for more, with such quick turnaround, 4 days or less.  We do show rises up to 100%, but RPS =2 is max.

 

Q10: The record shows Op40 doing quite well, and for a long time now. Why use a second system to enhance Op40? A10: The “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (short name “9 to 1”) started in 2000. It uses the same options as Op40 in its signal logic and buy/sell formulas, but with different emphasis: accept fewer signals, but each with a 90% probability of profit within 3 sessions. Teamwork has been beneficial for both systems, here’s an excerpt from previous summaries for the 5 ways it has worked:

 

There have been 5 ways for teamwork to enhance results:   1. Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but “9 to 1” traded. 2. Op40 had a signal in one direction, “9 to 1” had one in the other direction. To assure sufficient volatility for profit in both directions: “9 to 1” checks how high TE is, and if it’s 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own signal.  3. “9 to 1” bought twice.  4. Op40 loss prevented or offset by“9 to 1”. 5. Both systems chose the same option, suggesting higher $ commitment.

 

Q11: I misplaced the 1996 charter offer. Am I still entitled to it to get your lowest rate?  A11: We’re celebrating the start of the 39th year for KVS (Key-Volume Strategies) and 13th year for Op40. You’re welcome to the 1996 charter offer, restored for 15 days. Review the Op40 introduction, which includes the charter offer, on our web site: www.key-volume.com.

 

Q12: How do I get started?  A12: Each offer includes system instructions, step by step: choosing your option, buying your option, selling your option. You also get nightly hotline for 3 months, your choice of voice or email. Order with credit card for fastest start (Visa, Master Card, American Express), or mail a check. Specify A, B, C, or if you already have Op40: C or D.

 

Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling 800-334-0411 x12K. We’ll be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E. Lincoln Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Thank you for choosing KVS!  We’re proud of  39  years of systems and services.  

 

Offer “A”: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call “the hotline” (shorter version available by phone) total $545.

Offer “B”: Op40 and “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (“9 to 1”) with 3 months nightly email hotline for both, total $675.

Offer “C”:  If you already have the Op40 system: “9 to 1” system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.

Offer “D”: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems (extension or renewal) $265.

 

Anniversary Bonus!  Add 1 month to the offer of your choice. To assure this bonus, do order by Nov 30. Thank you.

 

Our other timing and trading products are taught in our releases and special supplements, with hotlines to keep you current.  Here's a preview, you are welcome to the keys to any named tool, one per 6 subscription months, for only a $70 surcharge per tool.  Your subscription term choices are:   6, 12 or 18 months.  With the 18 month term you're welcome to an extra tool, your choice, as a bonus, without surcharge.  See rates further down.

 

"One Day Advantage" Trading Principle "ODA":  Recent innovation, first available in 2002, allows you to trade Op40 signals with a one day delay, taking advantage of the fact that the best buy price is already known.

 

"MRM":  Major Risk Measurement Gauge:  Byproduct of Op40, in use since 1998, gives 1 or 2 signals in most months, to trade specific index puts with a 100% or larger profit potential.  Nearly 90% of signals have been profitable.

 

"5 Minute" Tool:  Just 5 minutes into any trading day you can make a quick test on the DJI to learn:  will this be an up day or a down day?  Minimum intraday gain is typically 70 points when the tool is correct.  When the tool is wrong, a second rule tells you how to make up the loss in a ratio of at least 3 to 1, example:  if you lost 100 points, you gain 300 or more.  The combined accuracy of the 1 day indication and the "make good 3 to 1" rule has been over 90% since 1999.

 

Two-Way Signals:  Frequent signals, in use since 1991, confirm that natural volatility is present, and traders have the odds in their favor to profit in either direction or both.  Absence of Two-Way signals in 5 or more consecutive sessions constitutes a major downside alert, for normally a 400 to 600 point DJI fall, with an occasional even larger one of  800 to 1000 points.  Since we discovered this major warning feature in 1999, there have been an average of 5 such signals a year.

 

"9 to 1" Edge Finder:  Discovered in 2000, this tool has the prime role to enhance returns from any option system.  A signal occurs only when there is a 90% (9 to 1) probability for a quick profit of up to 60% in 1 or 2 days.  Nearly 9 in 10 signals have indeed been accurate.  The tool can also be used as a standalone index option trading system, but signals are relatively infrequent, sometimes only 6 to 8 in a month.

 

Big One Day Changes:  Since 1998 we have used a set of simple rules for treating every 90 point or larger DJI closing change (up or down) as a signal for a move of about 600 points.  Some big up days are buy signals, others are sell signals.  Likewise, some big down days are buy signals, others are sell signals.  The trading logic decides direction, entry, and exit.

 

Natural Volatility Products:  NV1 (formulas) or NV2 (full system).   We discovered the underlying logic near the end of 2002.  Learn how to measure volatility and profitability by easy math, using only a day's prices for a given index option.  Catch trading signals for options several times a month for 60% gains within 3 days.  Use specific rules for adjusting your original exit goal when the gain does not come quickly enough.  NV signals have been profitable slightly over 80% of the time.

"SPP":  Sell Price Predictor:  Before you accept a loss on any index option which you bought thru any source, consult the Rebound Profiles of SPP,  introduced in August 2004.  The profiles tell you clearly whether to accept a loss, or if not:  how many more days to hold for, and for what size rebound.  The surcharge for SPP is $175, rather than the $70 that applies to other methods.
 

Other investment aids, which you learn automatically through a subscription to the KVS releases include: Key-Dates for market turns;  Magnetic Bands for support and resistance;  and the Key-Volume concept for stock trading. 

 

HOW TO ORDER   The one-time fee for Options "40 In 4" is $675, but you can save through the Anniversary Special fee of only $545.  You may even be eligible for the super saver charter rate from 1996, mentioned in the 15 day time limit offer you've browsed up front.  Higher rates of $495 to $545 include two months hotline by voice ($495) or email ($545), the choice is yours.  The highest fee of $675 includes "ODA" (described above) plus 3 months hotline, voice or email.  If you wish to renew the hotline later, rates start at $135 for 3 months.  Use the hotline as your data source, learning aid, or shortcut.

 

KVS  subscriptions bring you 14 to 20 features a year on systems, tools and techniques, numbered as "releases" (plus educational back issues) and four email or recorded updates (your choice) per week, two on market timing and stocks and two on the large potential (100%+) option trading outlook.  Special rates for web site browsers are $279 for 6 months, $449 for a full year, or $579 for 18 months.  Bonus and surcharge choices were described above.  If you already have all the listed  tools from an earlier subscription, you're welcome to one of the following as a bonus with a 1 year or 18 month order: 2008 Stock Trader's Almanac, hardcover 180+ pages, focusing on seasonal opportunities and dangers, with daily calendar timing help and a variety of record keeping forms;  and/or Extra Hotline Time, 1 month.  Email address for our System Support staff:  kvshotlines@aol.com


Call 800-334-0411 ext. 12-E to order:  Use Visa, MasterCard or American Express.  This is a 24 hour number.  If you prefer to mail a check, ask to speak to someone on the KVS staff for the fastest service mailing address, and for a code to be written on your mailing envelope to assure your special rate.  From outside the USA call 828-692-3401.  If you prefer to order by Email:  info@key-volume.com.  Be sure to include your telephone number with your order.  If you have a Fax number, please provide it as well.    Thank you, we appreciate your joining us, we fill all orders by 2 day priority mail; auxiliary material is sent by Email.

 

**************************************************************************************************************************

 

PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS:

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.                    RELEASE #952 JULY/AUG/SEPT 2007                            VOL. 38, NO. 4

 

Hello again from your KVS support staff:  Welcome to the new world of DJI 13000-14000, and the DTE 2007 system! You may have been on an early distribution list for this milestone report in July, with special offers, because of your past orders. If not, this web site copy will bring you current. This can mean important savings for you, because some fees are scheduled to double.  Thank you very much for choosing the KVS family of investment products and services!  KVS Systems Support

 

KVS #952 SUMMER  2007:  MESSAGE FROM THE DOW: “I HAVE JUST CHANGED 55 OR

MORE POINTS FROM YESTERDAY. TAKE THIS AS A CLUE TO PROFIT 50% FROM OPTIONS.”  

 

When the Dow starts talking to you, perhaps you’ve been working too hard, and you need a rest. But then again, this could be special reward time if you accept a challenge. This is our 38th year in the market, and our experience tells us that there’s always another challenge. Stay alert, recognize what it is, and do something about it. It’s too soon to rest!

 

A system we call simply “DTE” for Daily Trade Email, has been the work horse for our specific entry/exit logic for trading index options. The SP100 (OEX) index is our preferred vehicle. If it’s not yours yet, we’re confident that it will be. Because DTE wants to trade almost every day, and we want to minimize open positions, we have a not-so-fantastic 30% quick profit goal per signal. We’ve been getting it more than two thirds of the time, for going on 3 years. What about unused potential?

 

DTE does have a way to score occasional large gains, even in excess of 100%. But what if we could score frequent large gains, not necessarily triple digits, but realistically: how many traders would object to +50% to +75% gains, let’s say 6 to 10 times a month? What could make that happen? Something as simple as 55 point or larger moves by the Dow (DJI), in either direction, from one day’s closing to the next. Continue to use the established DTE quick gain logic, but when the Dow gives a large gain alert: boost the 30% target to the 50% to 75% range, even higher at times, with some added logic.

 

You’ll be pleased to know that such added logic is no longer tentative: it has been applied to DTE signals, and Dow signals, since the start of 2007. We designated the 6 month period through June as the pre-release test period, then extended it by 2 months through August, to give “Murphy’s Law” more than a fair chance to make its move. We’ve all had experience with this troublesome “law”: “If something can go wrong, it will.”

 

What the new logic has accomplished so far, as you’re about to see, leaves us confident that “DTE 2007” is not about to present unpleasant surprises. Therefore the upgraded DTE, with large gain capability, is available now at a discounted early release fee. After August the fee will rise considerably, so for the “daring” among you the opportunity is here right now to get a head start, and save a significant amount. Scan the record, then we’ll tell you more. If it’s past August when you read this: see extra 5th page with track record addendum, and grace period special into September.

 

---- DTE 2007 ACHIEVED BY SIGNAL TYPE ----

SIGNAL  %OF ALL  TOTAL   AVERAGE      WIN

 TYPE   SIGNALS  %GAIN  PER SIGNAL   RATIO

  1N      44     + 823%   + 46%       83%

  5,6     15     + 432%   + 72%      100%

  2N      12     + 423%   + 85%      100%

  1       12     + 373%   + 75%       80%

  3N      10     + 153%   + 38%       75%

  4N       7     + 171%   + 57%      100%

  ALL    100     +2375%   + 58%       87%

 

 

Specific Option, with Entry & Exit Prices, In a Nightly Email, Directly to You  The nightly email hotline content, to which current DTE users are accustomed, will be extended by a few lines starting July 31, to include Large Gain advice. To quantify the new large gain capability, we gave you a summary above, based on the last 50 times the DJI changed 55 or more points, close to close, and a DTE 2007 signal resulted. About 2 in 10 signals permit no action, because other signal components cancel them, or the buy price is not available. The table on page 2 expands the summary into trade by trade detail.

 

Do you need to learn the signal logic? No, you do not. The nightly email tells you exactly which option to buy, at what price, and what your sell target is as a minimum, commonly 50%. Thus, as soon as your email subscription starts, you can begin trading. Even with the decisions made for you, you’ll probably like some insight into the system foundation and logic structure:  So we’re adding a description of signal components to the trade by detail on the next page. When the DJI changes 55 or more in a single day, that is a trading alert, not a signal yet.  One or more of the other signal components need to confirm the alert. Altogether there are 6 components, each one a KVS “in house” technical invention, ranging in experience from 38 years to one year. They have been specially put together for DTE 2007 and stand ready to serve you. Meet the team:

 

 

DTE 2007 SIGNAL COMPONENTS    1. DJI Closing Change: At Least 55 points above or below the previous day’s.

 2. Magnetic Bands: Used for support and resistance in market timing for 28 years. Recently enhanced with day to day option trading capability.  3. “2 Day Magnet” and “EOP” (Ease of Profit): These formulas have generated the 30% quick profit signals for DTE since 2005. 4. Natural Volatility: Upgraded from 2003 to recognize when it’s OK to buy an option at next day’s opening for a 50 to 60% rise. Signal types ending with N are supported by the smart second screen we call NV3.

 

5. “Two-Day Swing”: Measurement of full DJI 2 day move size, using intraday extremes, from low to high, and also high to low. Used since KVS started in 1970. 6. Trading Edge “TE”as computed daily by the Op40 system:  Whether the direction of the DJI move (component #1) agrees or disagrees with the “TE” direction determines most signal types. For traders who prefer to learn a system in detail, then have a role in decision making,”Op40” is the recommended alternative to DTE 2007. Works well together with the “9 to 1 Edge Finder”. These two systems are featured on the last 2 pages today.   

 

Now see what the team has been capable of, and how to order the DTE 2007 service. Thank you for choosing a KVS product!

 

                        SIGNAL    OPTION   BUY   TARGETS AND DAYS TO ACHIEVE THEM

DATE  TYPE  CHOICE  PRICE  ORIG DAYS  HIGH DAYS  NORM %GAIN

3/ 2   4N   MAR650C  1.80  2.70   0   2.80   0   2.75 + 53%

3/ 5   4N   APR660C  2.90  4.30   X   4.20   3   4.20 + 45%

3/ 6   3N   APR580P  1.85  2.75   X   2.25   4   2.05 + 11%

3/13   3N   APR580P  2.25  3.40   0   3.40   0   3.40 + 51%

3/14   1N   APR655C  3.10  4.60   X   4.00   3   4.00 + 29%

3/19   1N   APR600P  1.85  2.75   X   1.90   0   1.25 – 32%

3/20   1    APR660C  2.15  3.20   0   6.80   1   5.00 +132%

3/21   1N   APR665C  3.00  4.30   1   4.40   1   4.35 + 45%

3/21   2N   APR635P  2.40  3.60   2   4.90   4   4.25 + 77%

3/23   5    APR635P  2.60  3.90   0   4.90   2   4.40 + 69%

3/28   1N   APR625P  1.70  2.55   0   3.10   0   2.83 + 66%

 

4/ 3   1N   APR665C  2.25  3.40   0   3.50   2   3.45 + 53%

4/11   2N   MAY675C  2.50  3.70   1   7.00   2   5.35 +114%

4/12   1N   MAY675C  3.20  4.80   1   8.50   2   6.65 +108%

4/16   3N   MAY685C  2.40  3.60   1   5.90   3   4.75 + 98%

4/20   1    MAY695C  1.85  2.75   2   3.30   2   3.03 + 64%

4/25   1N   MAY695C  3.00  4.50   X   2.95   2   2.95 -  2%

4/27   5    MAY665P  1.90  2.85   0   3.40   1   3.13 + 64%

5/ 2   1N   MAY695C  2.50  3.70   1   4.50   2   4.10 + 64%

5/11   1N   JUN710C  2.05  3.10   1   4.10   4   3.60 + 75%

5/16   1N   JUN710C  2.90  4.30   2   4.40   2   4.35 + 50%

5/22   5    JUN675P  1.80  2.70   1   3.10   1   2.90 + 61%

5/24   2N   JUN710C  1.85  2.75   2   4.20   4   3.48 + 88%

5/30   1N   JUN710C  3.00  4.20   1   4.20   1   4.20 + 40%

5/30   4N   JUN690P  1.90  2.60   0   4.00   4   3.30 + 73%

 

6/ 6   1    JUL650P  2.65  4.00   0   4.20   1   4.10 + 55%

6/ 7   3N   JUL630P  2.10  3.10   X   1.95   2   1.95 -  7%

6/ 8   1N   JUL715C  3.30  4.60   3   6.40   4   5.50 + 67%

6/13   1N   JUL715C  3.50  5.20   1   6.40   1   5.80 + 66%

6/15   1    JUL725C  2.45  3.70   X   2.40   2   2.35 -  4%

6/19   5    JUL670P  1.50  2.25   0   4.00   1   3.13 +109%

6/20   1N   JUL670P  3.20  4.80   1   6.60   3   5.70 + 78%

6/21   2N   JUL670P  2.75  4.10   0   6.60   2   5.35 + 94%

6/22   1N   JUL655P  2.30  3.40   1   4.10   2   3.75 + 63% 

6/26   6    JUL710C  2.00  3.00   0   3.70   1   3.35 + 67%

6/27   1N   JUL710C  2.75  4.00   3   4.10   3   4.05 + 47%

6/27   2N   JUL655P  1.50  2.20   1   2.30   1   2.25 + 50%

6/29   5    JUL710C  2.50  3.70   1   4.40   4   4.05 + 62%

 

7/ 2   1N   JUL710C  2.80  4.20   2   4.40   3   4.30 + 54%

7/10   1N   AUG640P  2.30  3.40   X   1.10   3   1.10 – 52%

7/11   1    AUG730C  2.10  3.10   0   6.40   1   4.75 +126%

 

Notes on column content, more detail when you subscribe:  SIGNAL TYPE is determined by which components played a role. BUY PRICE is specified in daily email. ORIGINAL TARGET (sell) is specified in daily email. X indicates the target was not reached and needed to be lowered in follow-on email. DAY 0 means the day of purchase, 1 is a day later, etc. NORM is the average gain, halfway between minimum (original) and high, you get guidelines up front, then comments in daily email.

 

How to order the Early Release at Lowest Price:  Cost is $409 including the current DTE 2006 system, with rules for 30% gains and new guidelines for larger gains, also including 3 months daily email, with quick gain entry & exit, as well as large gain entry & exit. On Aug 31, 2007 the fee will approximately double. Order with credit card by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling toll free: 800-334-0411 x12D. All system user questions are answered same day or next. Renewal fees are $219 for 3 months or $389 for 6. Mail orders: call or send email to say this is your preference, and you’ll get a code and address.

KVS #952 page 3

*********************************************************************

"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 12TH YEAR, 2007 -  LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

OPTION BUYER’S ADVANTAGE: ANY KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!

*********************************************************************

 

Already in its 12th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule. Update coming late September.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-104   1458    1159:299    +50480%        + 34%    1262.0

  105      11       7: 4      + 140%        + 13%       3.5

  106      14      12: 2      + 740%        + 53%      18.5

  107      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  108       9       6: 3      + 160%        + 18%       4.0

  109      12      10: 2      + 520%        + 43%      13.0

  110      11       9: 2      + 440%        + 40%      11.0

  111      10       8: 2      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  112      10       6: 4      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  113      10       8: 2      + 180%        + 18%       4.5

  114      11       9: 2      + 360%        + 33%       9.0

  115      16      10: 6      + 180%        + 11%       4.5

  116       8       7: 1      + 240%        + 30%       6.0

  117      12       7: 5      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

  150      12       8: 4      + 260%        + 22%       6.5

  151      13      12: 1      + 680%        + 52%      17.0

  152      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  153      14      11: 3      + 500%        + 36%      12.5

 ALL 153 2115    1654:461    +70360%        + 33%    1759.0

 

The 78% win ratio (1654 gains/2115 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (70360/2115) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Milestone Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

APR 27           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

    30    1    MAY665P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -55  ..  - 1.0  - 1.0   2.45  1.10

MAY 1+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 1.0

    2     2    MAY695C    6    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 0.5   2.62  4.50

    3+    3      “”       8   +27   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 1.0   3.30  4.50

    4     4    MAY700C   10    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -27   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 0.5   2.05  1.50

    7+    5    JUN715C    4   +28   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 1.0   1.60  2.05

    8     6      “”       4   +21   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 1.5   1.70  2.05

    9+    7      “”       6    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.5   1.35  2.00

   10+    8    JUN650P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 2   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5   1.87  1.90

   11     9    JUN710C    7    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.0   2.37  4.10

   14            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.0

   15    10    JUN710C   10    ..   ..  +75   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 5.5   2.52  4.40

   16    11      “”       8    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 6.5   2.85  4.40

   17    12      “”       5   +28   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 7.0   3.45  4.40

   18+   13    JUN715C    4   +21   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 7.5   1.93  2.30

   21+           (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

   22            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

   23+           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

***   PERIOD 152:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +16.0

               

MAY24+    1    JUN675P    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -21   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 0.5   1.78  1.40

   25     2    JUN710C    5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 1.5   1.92  4.20

   29           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 1.5

   30     3    JUN710C    7   +35   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 2.0   3.12  4.20

   31     4    JUN690P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0   1.70  4.00

JUN 1     5    JUN715C    5    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 5.0   1.30  1.90

    4+    6    JUL735C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -60  - 1.5  + 3.5   1.55   .60

    5            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.5

    6+    7    JUL650C    5    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 4.5   2.67  4.20

    7+    8    JUL630P   10   +30   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 5.0   1.50  1.95

    8     9    JUL715C    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.0   3.20  6.40

   11    10      “”       7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 9.0   2.30  6.40

   12+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 9.0

   13    11    JUL715C    7    ..   ..   ..  +80   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.0   3.50  6.40

   14+   12    JUL720C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 3   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +11.0   3.70  3.80

   15+   13    JUL725C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -35   ..  ..  - 0.5  +10.5   2.27  1.45

   20    14    JUL670P    6    ..   ..   ..  +85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +12.5   2.71  5.00

***   PERIOD 153:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +12.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +19.0

 

 

Teamwork: Op40 with “9 to 1 Edge Finder”  Options“40 In 4”, better known by its nick name “Op40”, has been our most popular option system since its first year. We bring you a monthly update of both the long term (previous page) and short term records (see two latest  periods above).  Major appeal of Op40 to option traders is that you learn the system, then maintain a measure of control:   you have elbow room to make your own decisions whether to trade or not – depending on size of “TE” (Trading Edge) – and whether to settle for a smaller profit quicker, or try for a  “home run”.  Note in the performance periods above:  no fewer than 11 opportunities for gains of +55% or better.  Different size profits are in different columns, for an easy scan of the distribution of smaller and larger gains. What the Op40 logic has not favored is buying at the market. Buy orders 5 to 30 cents under the previous close work the best.

 

A companion system from 2000, the “9 to 1 Edge Finder”, does buy at the next opening after a signal. What if the price gaps up, and leaves small room for profit? The “9 to 1” logic sets a limit price for a second buy a certain % under the first. If an up gap whipsaws back down, making it look like the buy was too high, buying again nearly always turns a paper loss into one or two actual gains.  Every signal flagged by + in the signal column invoked teamwork between the two systems. The foundation for both is simple math, comparing certain option prices to others, and using the percent differences for trading decisions.

 

There are 5 ways for teamwork to enhance results:  review below, then spot them in the record. For an easy scan of signal performance we have used the “RPS” (Rated Performance Score) method since the 1996 charter offer, which remains on our website www.key-volume.com.  The 5 ways, with examples:

 

1.        Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but “9 to 1” traded.  May 1, 21, 23; Jun 12. Example 6/12:  “9 to 1” Jul715C doubled 2.35 to 4.70.

2.        Op40 had a signal in one direction, “9 to 1” had one in the other direction: May 7, 9, 10; Jun 6, 15. To assure that there’s enough volatility for profit in both directions: “9 to 1” checks how high the TE is, and if it’s 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own signal.

3.        “9 to 1” bought twice. May 18, 21. Example 5/21: “9 to 1” Jun675P bought 2.35 and 1.60, then profited twice on rise to 3.10.

4.        Op40 los prevented or offset by“9 to 1”:  May 24; Jun 4,15. Example 6/15: call lost, but “9 to 1” choice Jul670P more than doubled from 2.25.

5.        Both systems chose the same option, suggesting higher $ commitment: May 3, 18, 21; Jun 7, 14.

 

Option Buyer’s Advantage: Daily Market Timing is Built In!  It’s a good idea to time your larger option purchases near our projected market bottoms and tops, but for daily action simply trade the signals of “Op40” and “9 to 1”.

 

Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling 800-334-0411 x12K. We’ll be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E. Lincoln Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Thank you for choosing KVS!  We’re proud of  38  years of systems and services.  

 

Offer “A”: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call “the hotline” (shorter version available by phone) total $545.

Offer “B”: Op40 and “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (“9 to 1”) with 3 months nightly email hotline for both, total $675.

Offer “C”:  If you already have the Op40 system: “9 to 1” system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.

Offer “D”: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems (extension or renewal) $265.

 

KVS #952 p. 5

 

DTE 2007 Addendum, with September Grace Period   For those who’ve been curious about the durability of DTE 2007 performance, given the recent eruption of market whipsaws: this expansion of the record will speak for itself. The influence of the whipsaws is best seen in the first of the two DAYS columns, under TARGETS: note the more frequent occurrence of  X” compared to the previous table (3/2-7/11).   “X” marks those trading signals that did not reach their original exit targets. The whipsawing invoked protective rules which lowered the targets.

 

Go to the ends of the “X” rows, and you’ll find very modest gains, or losses. Our exit logic is strong on the principle that profit protection is a better discipline than waiting for a couple of extra days for losses to whipsaw back into gains. We’d do new studies if the win ratio dipped to 67%, though two of three trades winning would be acceptable to most. But we remain comfortably higher: the 8 losses in the 7/12-8/29 signal period take a back seat to 24 wins. The win ratio is 75%.

 

We do not blame traders who missed the 8/31 deadline for the Early Release Savings.  A new column DJI, second from the left, shows the Daily DJI Change that triggered each signal. The magnitudes have been “awesome”. But if you have a system that can master personality changes in the market, it’s not a good idea to wait on the sideline for the return to “normal”. This may be it! Scan the record, then we’ll update the special offer on an earlier page of this release. The Signal Type statistics, omitted this time to make room for the DJI, are provided to all new DTE 2007 system users.

 

                        SIGNAL     OPTION  BUY   TARGETS AND DAYS TO ACHIEVE THEM

DATE   DJI  CHOICE  PRICE  ORIG DAYS  HIGH DAYS  NORM %GAIN

7/12  +284  AUG735C (2.95)  --   --    --   --   SEE: 7/16

7/16  + 44  AUG675P  2.25  3.30   1   3.60   1   3.45 + 53%

7/19  + 82  AUG740C  1.65  2.45   X   1.80   1   1.80 +  9%

7/20  -149  AUG670P  2.55  3.80   1   4.50   2   4.15 + 63%

7/23  + 92  AUG735C  2.00  3.00   X   1.15   1   1.15 - 42%

7/24  -226  AUG670P  3.10  4.70   1   9.50   1   7.10 +129%

7/24  -226  AUG725C  2.25  3.00   0   3.00   0   2.97 + 33%

7/25  + 68  AUG670P  4.70  7.00   0   9.50   0   8.25 + 75%

7/26  -312  AUG635P  2.05  3.40   1   3.80   1   3.60 + 76%

7/27  -208  AUG635P  3.40  5.10   X   2.60   1   2.60 - 24%

7/27  -208  AUG710C  1.75  2.35   1   2.90   1   2.63 + 50%

7/30  + 93  AUG635P  1.40  2.10   0   3.80   0   2.95 +111%

7/31  -146  AUG625P  2.10  2.80   X   1.40   2   1.40 - 33%

7/31  -146  AUG700C  2.25  3.00   0   4.50   0   3.75 + 67%

 

8/ 1  +150  AUG705C  1.95  2.60   X   2.15   0   2.15 +  8%

8/ 1  +150  AUG625P  1.45  1.95   X   1.40   1   1.40 -  3%

8/ 2  +101  AUG650P  2.35  3.50   0   7.20   3   5.35 +127%

8/ 3  -281  AUG625P  1.80  2.40   0   2.50   0   2.45 + 36%

8/ 3  -281  AUG695C  1.55  2.05   0   7.30   1   4.67 +201%

8/ 6  +287  SEP730C  1.55  2.05   0   4.40   1   3.22 +108%

8/ 6  +287  SEP600P  2.60  3.60   2   5.00   2   4.30 + 65%

8/ 8  +154  SEP740C  1.50  2.00   0   2.10   0   2.05 + 37%

8/ 8  +154  SEP600P  3.00  4.00   0   6.90   1   5.45 + 82%

8/ 9  -387  SEP560P  2.25  3.30   3   6.30   4   4.80 +111%

8/13  - 3   SEP725C  1.35  1.80   3   2.30   3   2.05 + 52%

8/14  -208  SEP560P  2.20  3.30   0   6.30   1   4.80 +118%

8/15  -167  SEP560P  4.30  5.00   0   6.30   0   5.65 + 31%

8/17  +233  SEP560P  1.95  2.90   X    .60   3    .60 - 69%

8/22  +145  SEP715C  2.15  3.20   X   2.05   1   2.05 -  5%

8/24  +143  SEP715C  2.35  3.10   X   1.40   2   1.40 - 40%

8/27  - 57  SEP630P  3.40  4.60   0   6.00   0   5.30 + 56%

8/28  -280  SEP600P  1.90  2.50   X   1.40   1   1.40 - 26%

8/29  +247  SEP710C  2.20  2.95   0   4.40   1   3.67 + 67%

 

Q&A  Q1: I  thought the DJI has to change at least 55 points to trigger a signal. I see a +44 (7/16) and -3 (8/13) in the record, please comment.  A1: There are infrequent “3 day pattern” signals,  such as “Momentum Dry-up”, which start with a big one day change (as 7/12), and are followed by two changes less than 55.  Q2: Is there a maximum buy price, to protect against paying too much on an opening up-gap?  A2: Yes, but  large “Magnetic Band Spans” allow exceptions.  Q3: Some big DJI changes appear to generate signals for a call and put, both. Comment?  A3: Correct, our “Natural Volatility” readings suggest trading both directions, on occasion, and produce two profits rather than one, or a profit more than offsetting a loss.

 

How to order the Early Release at Lowest Price: Extended Deadline  Cost is $409, includes: 1. DTE 2006 system, forerunner of  DTE 2007, with rules for 30% gains, and a “relaxed exit” tactic for larger ones.  2. DTE 2007 with focus on gains of +50% or more. Rules & guidelines.  3. Nightly advice from both:  3 months email hotline. Market forecasts included. Questions answered promptly. -- On Sep 25:  the fee will rise to $690. Order with credit card by email to kvshotlines@aol.com, copy kvsnick@aol.com. Or place your order toll free: 800-334-0411 x12D. Renewals:  $219 for 3 months or $389 for 6. Mail orders: call us, or send email to say this is your preference, and you’ll get a code and address. Thanks for choosing KVS, our 38th year!

PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS:

 

 

PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS: PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS:

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.                       RELEASE #950 MAR/APR  2007                              VOL. 38  NO. 2

 

Dear Current or Prospective Subscriber or System User: Featured this time is the teamwork of “OP40”, and the “9 to 1 Edge Finder”. Read carefully and you’ll have no concern about “bad times” ahead!  We can now save first class mail time, and give Email users an edge to act on special offers with a time limit (pages 2 and 3). Thank you for choosing KVS products!

 

KVS #950 MAR/APR  2007:  “BEN, I LIKE YOUR SYSTEMS, BUT…

WHY DO YOU LEAVE SO MUCH PROFIT POTENTIAL UNUSED?”

 

The above question was addressed to Ben Sterling, a KVS systems developer who authored “Op40” and the “9 to 1 Edge Finder”. What triggered the question was a rash of very large runups by OEX (SP 100) put options during the big February market fall. To put our result tracking in perspective, and give you a head start on future market falls, we have two tables and a Q&A for you on the last page, we suggest that you go there first:

 

Just above the “Bad Times” for the Market paragraph note the substantial difference for period #149 between the performance score (RPS) for Op40 by itself: RPS = 11, and the enhanced score using Op40 and “9 to 1” teamwork, RPS = 22. You’ll probably ask if you’re reading this correctly: double the percent achieved, using the two systems together, in the same amount of time?  Yes, you are reading correctly. The profit potential of the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” had a “back seat” in previous presentations. This was mainly because of relatively few signals in several months. But there have been enough busy months to justify today’s feature, and begin realizing more of the profit potential than we had previously settled for.

 

The signal tracking format below is very similar to that on the last page, but the content includes “9 to 1” results in extra rows that follow Op40 results. If no “9 to 1” signal, then the Op40 signal is not repeated from the last page.  In the second column: “9 to 1 Decision”, if CALL or PUT is underlined, then both systems had a trading signal for the same option. You’ll find 8 such cases for the two performance periods #148 and #149, separated by a row of hyphens.. When the two systems support one another this way, a larger dollar commitment (1.5 to 2 times) is justified. What about the other 10 signals? Pass them by? You will not want to! Scan the table, see if you get an idea or two. Then go on to the facts and suggestions that follow.

 

 OP40 “9to1”  OPTION   OP40    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE  MIN%LOSS  -- RPS --   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL DECN   CHOICE    TE   +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40   OP40 9to1   BUY    TO 

JAN12+        FEB675C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -16  ..  - 0.5        2.93  2.45

   12+ CALL     “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -14  ..        -0.5   3.60  3.10

   16+        PAUSE-C    1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0

   16+ CALL   FEB675C    1   +24x2 ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +1.0   2.50  3.10

   29+        FEB650P    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -27  ..  - 0.5        1.24   .50

   29+ CALL   FEB670C   [5]   ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..        +2.0   1.80  4.30

   30+        PAUSE-C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0                   

   30+ CALL   FEB670C    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..        +2.0   1.90  4.30

   31+        FEB670C    8   +29   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  + 0.5        3.25  4.20

   31+ CALL     “”       8   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +0.5   3.50  4.20

FEB 6+        PAUSE-P    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0

    6+ CALL   MAR685C   [4]   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   –2x2 ..        –0.5   1.38  1.35

    7+        MAR650P    3    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  + 1.5        2.65  4.40

    7+  PUT     “”       3    ..   ..  +63   ..   ..   ..   ..        +1.5   2.70  4.40

        *** PERIOD #148 TOTALS, FOR DAYS WITH DUAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY ……  + 1.0 +6.0       

 

FEB 8+        MAR650P    3    ..   ..   .. + 80  ..    ..   ..  + 2.0        2.42  4.40

    8+ CALL   MAR680C   [3]   ..  +45x2 ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +2.0   1.98  2.90

    9+        MAR640P    8   +24   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  + 0.5        2.10  2.60

    9+  PUT     “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  –40x2      -2.0   1.86  1.10

   12+        MAR640P    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  - 1.0        1.78  1.10

   12+  PUT     “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  –40x2      -2.0   1.80  1.00

   13+        MAR675C    4    ..   .. [+65]  ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0       [3.10] 5.10 

   13+ CALL     “”       4    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +1.0   3.20  5.00

   14+        MAR680C    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  - 1.0        1.90   .95

   14+  PUT   MAR650P   [7]   ..   ..   ..   ..  + 9   ..   ..        +1.0   1.75  1.90

   15+        PAUSE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0

   15+  PUT   MAR650P   [4]   ..  +40x2 ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +2.0   1.44  2.05

   16+        PAUSE-C    1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0

   16+ CALL   MAR680C    1   +37x2 ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +1.5   1.46  2.00

   20+        MAR680C    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -27  ..  – 0.5        1.31   .95

   20+  PUT   MAR660P   [2]   ..  +45x2 ..   ..   ..   ..   ..        +2.0   2.88  4.30

   21+        PAUSE-P    1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..    0.0

   21+  PUT   MAR660P    1    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..        +1.5   2.50  4.30

   22+        MAR660P    8    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  + 2.00       3.10 26.00

   22+  PUT     “”       8    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..        +2.00  3.20 26.00 

   26+        MAR655P    8    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  + 2.0        4.45 22.50

   26+  PUT     “”       8    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..        +2.00  4.50 22.50

 *** PERIOD #149 TOTALS, FOR DAYS WITH DUAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY ……  + 4.0 +11.0        

 

Four Other Ways that “9 to 1” Enhances Op40    *1. Op40 Pauses, TE too low.  But “9 to 1” trades.

 

In the Option Choice column of the joint record on page 1, PAUSE-C indicates that C = CALL had a low Trading Edge, which Op40 rules suggested not to trade. PAUSE-P was a similar restriction for a P = PUT signal. But “9 to 1” logic did have a tradable signal, why not assume that Op40 is being too cautious, and about to miss an opportunity?  The evidence supports “9 to 1” trades in such cases. Note in the next row after each occurrence of PAUSE the favorable outcomes, in the “RPS  9to1” column. Among the 6 signals (1/16, 1/30,  2/6, 2/15, 2/16, 2/21) only one resulted in a loss (2/6), so 5 of 6 cases, for an 83% win ratio, produced gains. Total RPS (Rated Performance Score) added to the Op40 record was +7.5. With each RPS = +0.5 representing a price rise of 20%, RPS = +7.5 meant an addition of +300% to enhance Op40

.

* 2. Op40 Trades One Direction, “9 to 1” trades the Opposite  These bi-directional opportunities are infrequent but potent. In the Op40 TE column look for TE values inside [  ] (brackets). Unless Op40 had a concurrent pause (as on 2/6 and 2/15), it was appropriate to trade both directions (1/29, 2/8, 2/14, 2/20). Sum the “RPS 9to1” column for these signals, and you get total RPS = +7.00. That’s another +280% added, to enhance Op40 (RPS = 1.0 represents +40%).

 

* 3. Bargain Buying: Second Buy at Lower Price on Same Signal  The “9 to 1” logic allows for a second buy on the same signal, if a price drop qualifies for a Bargain Buy. This can happen the same day or 1 day later. In tracking the signals when it did happen, we appended x2 to the % rise (or fall) to indicate that the result needs to be counted twice, because the Avg Buy column reflects the average buy price for two trades. Examples: the 1/16 “9 to 1” signal achieved +24%x2 = +48%, therefore RPS = +1, and the 2/8 signal achieved +45%x2 = +90%, therefore RPS = +2.0. Each RPS point reflects +40%.

 

* 4. Op40 loss becomes Breakeven or Overall Gain  There’s only one example available, with few Op40 losses to make good. Look at the 2/14 signals: Op40 took a 50% loss on a call, but “9 to 1” more than offset it with a put. While a 9% gain is hardly one to celebrate, when combined with the prevention of a 50% loss it is significant. We show both the loss and gain to permit this illustration, but in practice: when TE>6 and there are opposing signals by Op40 and “9 to 1”, a second test is made to decide which system to trade, or whether to trade both. In this case, trading only “9 to 1” was correct.

 

You Can Do Well with this Teamwork, KVS provides Complete Instructions  The foundation for both Op40 and the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” is simple math, comparing certain option prices to others, and using the percent differences for such decisions as: 1. Is the Trading Edge (TE) the right size for a trade, sometimes two trades?  2. Does the call or the put have the edge? 3. At what price should you buy again, in relation to the original buy?  Your “data base” of information will include a mere 8 prices: the day’s open, high, low and close for a specific call, and the same for a specific put. Op40 chooses for you, daily. To minimize your work, choose a package that comes with nightly email hotline, including TE computation; Quick Exit alert if timely for the next day; Contrarian Tactics; bargain buying; and time limit.

 

All Offers Include: “Additional Pointers for Using Op40 and  9 to 1  Together”.  By email or mail, your choice.

 

Offer “A”: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call “the hotline” (shorter version available by phone) total $545.

 

Offer “B”: Op40 and “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (“9 to 1”) with 3 months nightly email hotline for both, total $675.

 

Offer “C”:  If you already have the Op40 system: “9 to 1” system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.

 

Offer “D”: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems (extension or renewal) $265.

 

 

Q8 (Q&A expanded from last page): How to Order?.  If you misplaced your Op40 charter offer, restored briefly from 1996, it’s on  our website www.key-volume.com or call for a Fax:  877-350-3796.  Order toll free:  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.  Should you prefer to mail in your order, make your check to Key-Volume Strategies Inc. and address to same at: 46 E Lincoln  Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Please print in lower left corner: Attn. Scott, and also print the special offer code that we give you by email or phone when you let us know that you wish to order. Fastest service: choose offer A, B, C or D and call the 800 number above, and use a credit card.  Thank you for choosing KVS products, as we continue our 38th year!

 

Q9: Why do your tables sometimes show +100%, other times only +80%, but you take credit for only +80% (RPS=2) in either case?  A9: We report as much as was available on every signal, sometimes much more than even +100% (compare AVG BUY to ROSE TO), but we cap performance at RPS=2, which equates to +80%. Most traders don’t try for more, in a short 1 to 4 day period. We do show +100% to indicate: that much or more was available. For an option to double is a popular goal for traders, so our tables show how often a doubler was available.

 

Q10: Is a limit order necessary for buying, or can I just buy the next opening after a signal?  A10:  Op40 suggests buy orders below the previous close. It gives you statistics from past performance to help you decide how much under the close to buy, the average has been in the 25 to 35 cents range. The “9 to 1 Edge Finder” buys the next opening, but may buy a second time, the same day or next, if a bargain buy price is reached, quantified in the rules.

 

Q11: Which of your email hotline predicts tops and bottoms for the market (DJI)?  A11: The same hotline that announces and tracks the “9 o 1” signals. It is called the KVS Hotline and it not only predicts, it teaches you timing tools (some at a modest extra charge) for independent use.

 

Q12: How soon after my order can I expect the materials, and the start of the hotline(s)?  A12: We fill orders within 2 days, priority mail or email. See Q8.

KVS #950   page 3

*******************************************************************

"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 12TH YEAR, 2007 -  LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

“BAD TIMES” FOR THE MARKET? JUST FINE FOR OP40. TIMELY Q&A!

*******************************************************************

 

Already in its 12th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-100   1407    1120:287    +49260%        + 35%    1231.5

  101      14      10: 4      + 180%        + 13%       4.5

  102      11      10: 1      + 420%        + 38%      10.5

  103      13       9: 4      + 320%        + 25%       8.0

  104      13      10: 3      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  105      11       7: 4      + 140%        + 13%       3.5

  106      14      12: 2      + 740%        + 53%      18.5

  107      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  108       9       6: 3      + 160%        + 18%       4.0

  109      12      10: 2      + 520%        + 43%      13.0

  110      11       9: 2      + 440%        + 40%      11.0

  111      10       8: 2      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  112      10       6: 4      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  113      10       8: 2      + 180%        + 18%       4.5

  114      11       9: 2      + 360%        + 33%       9.0

  115      16      10: 6      + 180%        + 11%       4.5

  116       8       7: 1      + 240%        + 30%       6.0

  117      12       7: 5      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

 ALL 149 2063    1612:451    +68620%        + 33%    1715.5

 

The 78% win ratio (1612 gains/2063 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (68620/2063) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

JAN12+    1    FEB675C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -16   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 0.5   2.93  2.45

   16+           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 0.5

   17            NONE     0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 0.5

   18     2    FEB650P    7    ..   ..   ..   ..  +19   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 0.5   2.32  2.75

   19     3    FEB675C    6    ..   ..  +75   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.0   1.52  2.70

   22     4    FEB650P    6    ..   ..   ..  +80   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.0   1.80  3.30

   23     5    FEB675C    7    ..   ..   ..  +95   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 5.0   1.52  3.00

   24     6      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -15   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 4.5   2.07  1.75

   25     7    FEB670C    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   2.07  4.30

   26     8      “”       9    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 8.5   1.60  4.30

   29+    9    FEB650P    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -27   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 8.0   1.24   .90

   30+           (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 8.0

   31+   10    FEB670C    8   +29   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 8.5   3.25  4.20

FEB 1    11    FEB675C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 3   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 8.5   1.55  1.60

    2    12      “”       4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -55  ..  - 1.0  + 7.5   1.40   .60

    5            NONE     0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

    6+           (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

    7+   13    MAR650P    3    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 9.0   2.65  4.40

***   PERIOD 148:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 9.0

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +: ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +15.0

               

FEB 8+    1    MAR650P    3    ..   ..   ..  +80   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   2.42  4.40

    9+    2    MAR640P    8   +24   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 2.5   2.10  2.60

   12+    3      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -44  ..  - 1.0  + 1.5   1.78  1.10

   13+         MAR675C    4    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 1.5  [3.10] 5.10

   14+    4    MAR680C    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0  + 0.5   1.90   .95

   15+           NONE     0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

   16+           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

   20+    5    MAR680C    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -27   ..  ..  - 0.5    0.0   1.31   .95

   21+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   22+    6    MAR660P    8    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   3.10 26.00

   23     7    MAR655P   10    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0   1.92 22.50

   26+    8      “”       7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.0   4.45 22.50

   27     9    MAR600P    5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 8.0   1.10  2.75

   28    10    MAR625P    4    ..   ..   ..  +85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +10.0   4.00  7.50

MAR 1    11    MAR625P    7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +12.0   2.31  3.70

    2    12    MAR605P   13    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -45  ..  - 1.0  +11.0   2.58  1.40

***   PERIOD 149:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +11.0

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +: ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +22.0

 

“Bad Times” for the Market? Just Fine for Op40! Timely Q&A. Options“40 In 4”, better known by its nick name “Op40”, has been our most popular option system since its first year. We bring you a monthly update of both the long term (previous page) and short term records (see latest completed periods above).  Major appeal of Op40 to option traders is that you learn the system, then maintain a measure of control:   you have elbow room to make your own decisions whether to trade or not – depending on size of “TE” (Trading Edge) – and whether to settle for a smaller profit quicker, or try for a  “home run”.  Note in the performance periods above:  no fewer than 14 opportunities for gains of +55% or better.  Different size profits are in different columns, for an easy scan of the distribution of smaller and larger gains. Period #149 included a market drop of nearly 900 points! But Op40 did well. Let’s take a close look:

 

Q1: How does Op40 avoid lower performance, when the market is weak or negative?  A1: Op40 signal rules have been thoroughly tested in actual use for more than 11 years. The signal logic has been responsive, beyond our pre-launch expectations of 1996, to changes in market direction, gradual or sudden. This is reflected in the mix of trading signals, for call options which benefit from market advances, and put options which benefit from market declines.

 

Q2: What has been the mix, since the market topped out near 12800 in February?  A2: Period #149, the second of two performance periods reported above, includes Op40 signals from Feb 8, just before the decline, thru Mar 2, by when the market started to recover. Of the 12 Op40 signals traded in this period: 10 were for put options, while only 2 were for call options.

 

Q3: Overall, then, this had to have been a very good performance month for Op40, correct?  A3: Yes. The RPS total was 11.0. Each “RPS” point equates to a 40% option rise, thus RPS = 11.0 means a total of +440%. To view this from a long term perspective, scan the last column of the long term table on the previous page, with the heading “Total RPS”. For the last 16 periods, each being about 4 weeks, since #134 (see numbering in first column), performance totals ranged from a low 3.0 to a high 17.5. The latest total is near the high end, though market historians have been busy with negative statistics.

 

Q4: What about extra large gains on individual signals? On the Feb fall, I noticed several put option runs, greater than 400%, one even greater than 1000%, in just a couple of days.  A4: Because most traders don’t try for more than an 80 to 100% gain on a single signal, we cap Op40 performance at RPS = 2.0. A reliable way to exceed this cap in personal returns, and outperform Op40, is this: set a mental profit goal 40 to 50%, don’t actually place a sell order. Check daily whether the mental goal has been achieved. If yes: sell at the next opening, or at least  equal to the mental goal in case of a sudden pullback.

 

 Q5: Would you show of couple of examples for how this tactic can produce larger gains?  A5: Fine, we’ll use a 50% profit goal and measure from the next opening after an Op40 signal (though you can almost always buy lower than the opening). Feb 22 signal: Op40 choice was Mar660 put OEYOL. Opened 2/23 at 3.20. Mental goal: 3.20 + 50% = 4.80. Reached 2 days later. Next opening (2/28)  was 19.40. Rise from 3.20 was +506%. Feb 23 signal: Op40 choice Mar655 put OEYOK opened next day at 2.05. Mental goal: 2.05 + 50% = 3.10. Reached 1 day later. Next opening (2/28) was 15.90. From 2.05: +675%.

 

Q6: Going back to A4, would you show a “sudden pullback” example, with the mental goal becoming the actual goal?  A6: Feb 27 signal: Op40 choice Mar600 put OEYOT opened next day at 1.55. Mental goal: 1.55 + 50% = 2.35. Reached on a rise to 2.75 a day later. A sudden pullback the same day (3/1) lowered the price to 1.00. The 2.35 goal  became the actual goal, with a limit order placed to sell. Reached at 3/5 opening of 2.50 for gain of +61%.

 

Q7: How does the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” add to profits of Op40 signals?  A7: This is the main topic of the first 2 pages, go back to the front page.

 

                       

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.                       RELEASE #948 NOV/DEC 2006                              VOL. 37  NO. 9

 

Dear Current or Prospective Subscriber or System User:  Featured systems in this release are again MAGOP, on the first two pages, and Options “40 In 4” on the last two.  Special offers are on page 4. We’re pleased that we can now save first class mailing time, and give Email users an edge to act on special offers with a time limit. Thank you for choosing KVS products.

 

KVS #948 NOV/DEC 2006:  “MAGNETIC BANDS” ADD TO THEIR

 OPTION TRADING PROFIT RECORD, WITH ADVANCED ENTRY/EXIT LOGIC

 

A KVS invention from more than a quarter century ago, “Magnetic Bands”, has revealed an unplanned ability to generate quick turnaround profits in S&P index options. As we’ve been reminding trading enthusiasts since Release #945:  If you seek to improve your investment results consistently, sometimes “when you least expect it you’re selected” for a profitable surprise.  It was during a routine update of market turn statistics, a little over a year ago, that we made the discovery. We did not expect an invention to result, but one did!  We’ve been grateful, and have shared the basics with a growing number of investors who read a KVS release in the #945-948 range, and ordered at modest prices that may well look too low for a complete system. But we’re not aiming at “home runs” with our fees, we’d rather broaden our user base with new users from all income levels.

 

See the rest of this page, and the next page, for your introduction, or re-introduction, with expanded record. The one time fee for the system is now $290, just $80 more than earlier. An additional $199 brings you a daily email with specific SP100 options, and specific entry & exit prices, saving you substantial self study. What is the key to continuing profits? It’s what we call the Magnetic Bands Options Connection: MAGOP for short. MAGOP combines the long term success of Dow (DJI) support & resistance bands, now in their 28th year, with short term profit opportunities from DJI rallies and pullbacks, typically   160 or more points. Many, perhaps most of you have probably not been aware that such moves occur almost every two days. Watching only DJI closings conceals the all-important intraday moves that reward MAGOP signals several times a week. Scan the latest segment of the record below, then read on for how you can start sharing the benefits.

View Table

 

 

 

Observe the Trade Map column in the center: for each signal (always received after the close) you see a code. This is called the Action Pointer (AP). The daily email advice includes the specific option to trade, with its symbol and closing price, and also the AP code which points to a specific row in a decision table called the Trade Map. Users receive the system instructions, along with the Trade Map, a day or two after ordering MAGOP. Your daily routine, fully usable without studying the rules, will be to find the AP row, read across, and do simple math (subtraction and addition) to determine prices for placing orders.

 

Daily Signal Tracking: Keys to MAGOP Record (p.1)  The table shows you the origin and outcome of MAGOP signals for the latest two month period, as of the publication of Rel #948 in the latter part of November.  For readers who just want the Trade Map and daily email advice, there is more detail than needed. Later you may wish to learn the rules for independent use, then all content will become important. For now, view the content as a display of the thoroughness of the system logic on which the daily advice is founded. Which columns would be best to get familiar with now? Follow along in the record:

 

DJI Swings: Signals were received at the DJI levels shown, on the dates shown, after the close. What generated the signals? The prime trigger was move size. The Signal Swing column, with the larger numbers, measures maximum intraday moves, usually for 2 days, exceptionally for 3. The Verify Swing column measures to the DJI closing only, for signal verification. The relationship between the two sizes, the Swing Ratio, is a key determinant of whether to trade the signal or omit it. Omitted trades are excluded from the record. You’re probably curious about move sizes preceded by the letter D: it stands for divergent behavior, such as an intraday up move with a down closing, or down move with an up closing. This is important for the system logic, but not important to learn by email advice followers. We know, it’s difficult to see things flagged and be told it’s not important to know why. But you can be a MAGOP “driver” without being a MAGOP “mechanic”. First things first.

 

Option Choices and Action Prices  Starting with the Option Choice column at page center, you see exactly what the Trade Map told users to buy, at prices known as the Norm and Bargain. For some signal patterns such as Q+ or M (shown in Trade  Map column) Norm Buy is a buy at the next opening. For other patterns such as Q or Q#, Norm is a certain % under the Signal Close. The Bargain Buy price, set for a second, lower buy on the same signal, is not usually reached. When not reached it is shown in [brackets]. Whether it executes or not, the bargain buy price is important for the Exit price logic of the system. Trade results: if % Gain is underlined it is to be counted twice when aggregating results, because it’s the average gain from two buys on the same signal. The High column shows the best available outcome for a signal, on system exit day or a day later. MAGOP does not take credit for these high gains (or smaller losses). They’re shown for comparison, and as an incentive for independent optimization effort by users. As we come to new conclusions,  we plan to share optimization with users. See Q&A on page 4!

 

MAGNETIC BANDS: SUBSET OF TABLE COMING IN RELEASE #949, WITH SPECIAL DJI 11000+ FOCUS

 

                      ZONE    BAND    RANGE    RANK  FOCAL NBRS CNT UP>30
              ********** **** *********** **** *********** *********
              Blowoff     110 12300-12399   2  12356-12369
                         109 12200-12299   1  12223-12242    34
              ------------------------------------------------------
              Resistance  107 12000-12099   3  12074          49
                         106 11900-11999   3  11932          37
              Res/Trans   105 11800-11899   2  11854-11882    40
                         104 11700-11799   1  11753-11776    41
              ------------------------------------------------------
              Transition  102 11500-11599   3  11548          43
                         101 11400-11499   2  11454-11479    34
                          99 11200-11299   1  11230-11275
              ------------------------------------------------------


Our intent with this subset, initially brought to attention on a KVS email hotline, is to give a timely preview of the larger table in Rel #949. We needed to alert subscribers:  there will not be a "return to reality" by way of a major drop into lower and stronger bands than those in this subset. The strongest zone, the Support Zone, bands #94 through #98, with magnetic target counts in the 189-214 range, is not even shown in this preview. Trading above the Support Zone, in the 3 zones highlighted here, has become the new reality for market timers. By the time  #949 follows in January, we may no longer be calling 12200+ a “blowoff” zone. The DJI didn’t just shoot up into it, then fall back. Since Oct 13, DJI 12000+ has been a daily occurrence.

The distinguishing feature of these highlighted bands is that 7 out of 9, a convincing majority, have had the largest target count increases since Rel #945. The increase has been in the 34 to 49 range (see last column) in bands #101 through #109. In contrast, the largest increase in any band in the Support Zone has been 15. This means that buying support for some time to come, several months, will be found primarily in the Transition Zone, and even higher in the lower portion of the Resistance zone, identified here as Res/Trans (Resistance/Transition).  Prime importance of RANK is to users of MAGOP (Magnetic Bands Options Connection), our latest system, featured in Releases #945 thru #948.

In order for this preview to be of most benefit, study Rel #945 which gives you a full intro to Magnetic Bands. These bands have been one of our major market timing assets since their discovery over 27 years ago. If you do not have  #945, or it's not handy, ask for it by email to kvshotlines@aol.com. Our response will include an attachment which is a 4 page Word File.

 KVS hotlines discuss Magnetic Bands regularly, and forecast tops and bottoms using the focal numbers within the bands. Current fees: $279/6 mos, $449/full year. Thank you for choosing KVS systems and services. More choices on page 4.

 

KVS #948  P. 3

*******************************************************************

"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 11TH YEAR  -  2006 RECORD CONTINUES

WINNING TRADE RATIO:  PLANNED 75%,  ACHIEVED 78%

*******************************************************************

 

Near the end of its 11th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its performance goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

View Table

 

 

The 78% win ratio (1574 gains/2012 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (66820/2012) exceeds the +24% goal.  So that results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit rises to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to under perform, limiting some periods to 10 or less trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and   receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Your special combo fee of $545 is less than the current $675 fee for Op40 alone.  Hotline messages are your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

View Table

 

 

More Choices for Systematic Option Trading  Options “40 In 4”, better known by its nick name “Op40”, has been our most popular  option system since its first year. We bring you a monthly update of both the long term (previous page) and short term records (see above; latest period, beyond Nov 14 signal, is not complete, it will be in Rel #949).  Major appeal of Op40 to option traders is that you learn the system, then maintain a measure of control:   you have elbow room to make your own decisions whether to trade or not – depending on size of “TE” (Trading Edge) – and whether to settle for a smaller profit quicker, or try for a  “home run”.  Note in the performance periods above that there were no fewer than 15 opportunities for gains of +55% or better.  Different size profits are in different columns, for an easy scan of the distribution of smaller and larger gains.  What the Op40 logic does not give you is specific entry and exit prices.  If that’s what you prefer, give today’s intro to “Magnetic Bands: Options Connection” a close look.  Ideas for using Op40 and “Mag Bands” together:  1.  If both favor the same option with concurrent signals, commit 1.5 times or even twice your usual $ amount to a trade.  2. If Op40 does not have a tradable signal but “MAGOP” does:  trade the option choice of the latter as if it were an Op40 choice.   If you have yet to acquire Op40, see special offers on previous page.  If you misplaced your Op40 charter offer, restored briefly from 1996, it’s on  our website www.key-volume.com or call for a Fax:  877-350-3796.  Order toll free:  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.  Welcome to KVS products and services: starting our 38th year!

 

MAGOP System Questions Answered   Q1:Do results vary much from one 2 month period to another?  A1: Variance since Sept 2005: Lowest win ratio 78%, highest win ratio 92%. Q2: Does MAGOP use stops to limit losses? A2: Not stops, but protective tactics which add a certain % to low prices that follow buys, if considered low enough to be warnings. When the Profit Guide column (last in p. 1 table) shows a code starting with L, protective math was invoked. MAGOP also uses time limits, commonly 4 days, see TL codes in same column.  Q3: What happens if the suggested entry price is not hit? Try again next day?  A3: No, if the entry price is missed, the signal is excluded from the record. Buy orders are not repeated a day later: by then MAGOP is focused on new data for a potential new signal. 

 

Q4:  Are there days when MAGOP recommends both a call and a put? A4: Yes, infrequently. Most of the time the larger DJI swing gets the signal, but if two patterns are equally convincing, MAGOP tries to profit in both directions. See Nov 1, 7, 10 and 14 in the record. Q5: Will I know my MAGOP profit  taking goal even before buying the recommended option?  A5: Yes, you’ll get this from the Action Pointer (AP) code, which you look in the Trade Map to read out the complete advice. Q6: How are Magnetic Bands created and tracked? A6: Every DJI drop of 60 or more points is recorded. When the starting point of a drop is exceeded on a subsequent rally, we use special math to project 4 target numbers. They’re sorted into 50 and 100 point bands. We examine bands daily and use them for support and resistance input to our market top and bottom forecasts. See the recent email hotline feature in the lower part of page 2.

 

How to Order KVS, or a KVS/MAGOP package:  For a 6 month KVS subscription, which brings one detailed release per month as the one you’re reading, and 4 or 5 emails per week, fee is $279.  For a full year it’s $449. You get market timing, and intro to timing tools. KVS/MAGOP Package: Includes $290 one time charge for the MAGOP rules and Trade Map, and a KVS subscription for 4 months for $199. Total $489. Daily MAGOP email is part of the KVS hotline. How to Order “Op40”:  See “More Choices” above, under the performance tables. KVS/MAGOP/Op40 Combo:  Separately the packages would cost $489 + 545 = $1034. If you order together you get a 7.5% discount: Net $956.  For all orders, toll free: 800-334-0411 x12M.  Email: kvshotlines@aol.com.  Mail:  Key-Volume Strategies, 46 E Lincoln  Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Please print in lower left corner: Attn. Scott, and also print the special offer code that we give you by email or phone when you let us know that you wish to order.  Thank you for choosing KVS products as we begin our 38th year!

                                                           

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.                      RELEASE #945 MAY/JUNE 2006                                 VOL. 37  NO. 6

 

Dear Current or Prospective Subscriber or System User:  You get to view this release several days earlier than those who need to wait for their first class mail.  This enables you to benefit from educational features sooner, and gives you extra time to act on special offers with a time limit (see pages 3 & 4).  We’re pleased that we can now distribute our material by Email and Internet, and give early readers an edge.  Thank you for choosing the KVS family of investment products and services!  

 

KVS #945 MAY/JUNE  2006:  “MAGNETIC BANDS” INCREASE THEIR

 OPTION TRADING PROFITABILITY WITH SPECIFIC ENTRY/EXIT MODULE

 

If you seek to improve your investment results consistently, sometimes “when you least expect it you’re selected” for a profitable surprise.  A routine update of statistics on 2005 market turns and move sizes picked us for such a surprise last fall, as shared with readers in #939.  A KVS invention from more than a quarter century ago, “Magnetic Bands”, revealed an unplanned ability to generate large gains, in a matter of 5 or fewer days, from S&P 100 options.  The stage for such gains is set when the DJI rises or falls into a band which is the strongest or second strongest in its zone.  If you’re not acquainted with the support & resistance mechanics of Magnetic Bands, look ahead to page 2 now.  Then return here so that we may demonstrate the increased profitability of “band trading” with index options, not only for large gains – which may come only 2-3 times a month – but for much more frequent modest profits as well, in the +25% to +65% range.  Scan the record below, for starters, then read on, for a detailed intro including special offers to acquire the “Magnetic Bands Options Connection.”  The record shows all the signals for the first two months, which were the basis for developing the rules, and the latest two months,  which will allay any fear that what worked just fine last fall may not work now, because “the market is different”.

 

View Table

 

What Makes “Magnetic Bands” and Index Options a Reliable Profit Team?   1. Recurring DJI swings in the 200-300 points range, rewarding both sides of the market. See the DJI signal triggers, and move sizes that led to them, in the first 3 columns.  2. Most moves end in bands ranked 1 or 2, where they are ripe for reversal. When exceptionally they are not, our verification logic screens them out, and the record does not include them.  Moves then get larger, till a trigger gives us a verified hit. (p. 4)

     

"Magnetic Bands" In 27th Year   These bands have served us well with targets in both directions.  How bands are built and maintained is a technical KVS/Stock Performer invention, keeping track of  support and resistance ranges or "bands" for active investors.  Subscribers have found a reliable "comfort zone" in the uniformity of each updated table.  But on Nov 11, 2003 we needed to surprise our readers because of what we called a "curious recent development":  it prompted a break from tradition, in the way we present the bands.  We are staying on the new track. Scan the table, but before you do: for easiest reading click on your maximize symbol.

 

View Table

 

 

Compared to earlier presentations as in #901/902, the break produced these differences:  1. Shorter table: 26 bands today vs. 29 in #901/902.  2. The new presentation has been stretching higher: top band was #86 in 901/902, #91 in 907/908, #95 in 910,  #98 in 914, #101 in 934, and it’s #106 now.  3. In Aug 2003 the strongest band was 9400-9499 (#81).  Since then  the same band has been the weakest!  The curious development, responsible for our revised content and emphasis, was the infrequency of market drops of 500+ points.  Major shift in magnetic bands support?  We concluded yes, but temporary.  And it has been:

 

Examples of exceptions that proved us right:  1. From 10755 on 7/29/05 to 10098 on 10/13, the DJI fell 657 points.  2. From the 10/13 low to a high of 11179 on 2/17/06 the DJI rose 1081 pts.  But we still expect moves under 500 points to dominate by a decisive margin.  Note that within the 1081 point resurgence, 3 setbacks measured 321 pts (10483 to 10162), 304 pts (10998 to 10694), and 492 pts (11099 to 10607).  Total setback points = 1117, more than the entire resurgence so far.  The recurring prominence of even smaller 200-300 point moves has been instrumental in  our launching the Options Connection, see p. 1. 

 

Magnetic Bands:  How Support & Resistance Are Built   Building blocks of the table are DJI drops of 60 or more points, numbering 3018 thru 5/25, and corresponding rebounds of at least 60.  Magnetic Bands allow you an arm's length view of the market, 3 to 5 times a year, and to look ahead 2 to 4 months at a time, as an extra dimension to your work with daily  tools.

 

Here's how we get magnetic bands and focal numbers for forecasting:  When the starting level of a 60 point or larger DJI decline is revisited or passed on a rally, the formula gives us 4 target numbers: We sort them into 50-point DJI bands, and keep a target count for each band.  The higher the count, the more magnetic the band.  Other strength factors: A big value gap in a target count sequence, particularly where two zones meet, as bands #92 and #93, and #99 & #100, makes both bands stronger.  A sharp rise in target count, since the previous table, also makes a band extra strong.  Biggest rises in target counts since Rel #942 have occurred in bands #102 and 103.  We number 100 point bands low to high to give them an ID.  The 50 point bands inside are marked HI 50, the upper 50 point half, and LOW 50, the lower 50 point half.  An especially strong magnetic band first pulls the market into it, then repels it back into the nearest strong band above or below.  Today's table is divided into these six investment zones:

 

Upside Blowoff (bands 104-106), Resistance (100-103), Transition (97-99), Short Term Support (93-96),  Long Term Support (90-92), and Downside Blowoff  (89 and below).  Transition means:  repeating switching of the function of these bands between resistance and support.  Strongest band of each zone is flagged by double*.  Other strong ones are flagged by single *.  In bold you see the corresponding most influential focal numbers.  Each is the nucleus for target concentration in a given band.  Two strongest bands now are #95 (focal number range 10859-10876) and #96 (10919-10944).  Right end of the table gives you timing detail about swings in both directions, numbered 1 to 7 for the most likely sequence of target achievement.  Trading Budget Allocation  This is how much to keep in stocks, depending on the zone the DJI is in:  Upside Blowoff zone 50%;  Resistance zone 60%;  Transition zone 70%;  Short Term Support 75%;  Long Term Support  80%;  Downside Blowoff  90%.  Rest should be in reserve (cash instruments), up to 20% of which can be put to work in index puts for portfolio protection, provided you use a system regularly such as Op40 or the “Mag Bands Options Connection”. Otherwise limit your protection to 10%.

KVS #945  P. 3

*******************************************************************

"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 11TH YEAR  -  2006 RECORD CONTINUES

WINNING TRADE RATIO:  PLANNED 75%,  ACHIEVED 79%

*******************************************************************

 

Already in its 11th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its performance goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

For easiest reading of the performance table, click on your maximize symbol.

 

View Table

 

The 79% win ratio (1509 gains/1919 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (64160/1919) exceeds the +24% goal.  So that results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit rises to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to under perform, limiting some periods to 10 or less trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and   receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Your special combo fee of $545 is less than the current $675 fee for Op40 alone.  Hotline messages are your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 

View Table

 

 

More Choices for Systematic Option Trading   Options “40 In 4”, better known by its nick name “Op40”, has been our most popular option system since its first year.  We bring you a monthly update of both the long term (previous page) and short term records  (see above;  latest period, beyond May 26, is not complete, it will be in Rel #946).  Major appeal of Op40 to option traders is that you learn the system, then maintain a measure of control:   you have elbow room to make your own decisions whether to trade or not – depending on size of “TE” (Trading Edge) – and whether to settle for a smaller profit quicker, or try for a  “home run”.  Note in the performance periods above that there were no fewer than 11 opportunities for gains of +55% or better.  Different size profits are in different columns, for an easy scan of the distribution of smaller and larger gains.  What the Op40 logic does not give you is specific entry and exit prices.  If that’s what you prefer, give today’s intro to “Magnetic Bands: Options Connection” a close look.  Ideas for using Op40 and “Mag Bands” together:  1.  If both favor the same option with concurrent signals, commit 1.5 times or even twice your usual $ amount to a trade.  2. If Op40 does not have a tradable signal but “Mag Bands” do:  trade the option choice of the latter as if it were an Op40 choice.   If you have yet to acquire Op40, see special offers on previous page.  If you misplaced your Op40 charter offer, restored briefly from 1996, it’s on  our website www.key-volume.com or call for a Fax:  877-350-3796.  Order toll free:  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.  Welcome to KVS products and services:  our 37th year!

 

Magnetic Bands:  Options Connection   Keep referring to the table with the record on p. 1 as we continue:  What makes Magnetic Bands and Index Options a reliable profit team?  3. Band ranks tend to remain stable for as long as 4 to 5 months. For the entire period from Sep 2005 into June 2006, the table updates done in Rel #939 and #942 remained effective generating option signals:  the earlier table did the job thru most of Jan 2006, and the later table into the current month.  Now the signal source is the new table on page 2 of #945 herewith.  This rank durability will be a special asset to subscribers with do-it-yourself enthusiasm. While signals will come by email, already interpreted, there’ll be those of you who’ll want to recognize them and work with them independently.

 

4. Action Pointers: there are six basic characteristics that generate the signals and associated entry & exit rules.  They lend themselves to a table driven  trading action approach.  Characteristics are conveyed by single letters Q, M, D, R, S and X.  If more than one characteristic applies to the same signal, you see combinations such as QR or MRD.  Action Pointers with their instructions appear alphabetically in a table we call the Trade Map. When you become a Mag Bands Options Connection user, you need to keep your trade map handy, preferably daily.  Using the map, the KVS Email Hotline can inform you of signals easily, concisely, yet completely:  which option, with specific entry & exit instructions.  The hotline also revises exit goals as needed.  5. Quick Turnaround: Options respond promptly to most signals. One or two days of holding is common, 4 days is the limit.  Multiple open trades: infrequent.  6. Basic Math is the only “homework” requirement.  The Trade Map tells you how much to subtract from or add to the signal day’s closing (you know this the evening before entry) for first buy (NORM) and, exceptionally, second buy (Bargain).  The second buy, even if the price is not hit and is therefore [bracketed], is important to the exit formulas, the two most common ones being:  add 50% to bargain buy, and add  90% to bargain buy.

 

How to Order, What You’ll Get, and How Soon  For a 6 month KVS subscription, which brings  one detailed release per month as the one you’re reading, and 4 or 5 emails per week, fee is $279.  For a full year it’s $449. Also includes market timing advice and intro to timing tools. Add $210 one time charge for Mag Band Options Connection rules and Trade Map, by mid July.  Total $489 or $659.  Phone: 800-334-0411 x12M.  Email: kvshotlines@aol.com.  Mail:  Key-Volume Strategies, 46 E Lincoln Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Lower left corner: Attn. Scott, plus special offer code you receive when you phone or email  us. One time charge $210 is waived  for active users of the DTE 2006 system, no longer available to new users because of quota.  Thank you!

 

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.                         RELEASE #944  APRIL 2006                                     VOL. 37  NO. 5

Dear Current or Prospective Subscriber or System User:  You’re getting this release 3 or 4 days earlier than those who need to wait for their first class mail.  This enables you to benefit from educational features sooner, and gives you extra time to act on special offers, such as DTE 2006, with a time limit.  We’re pleased that we can now distribute our material by Email, and give Email subscribers an edge.  Thank you for choosing the KVS family of investment products and services!   KVS Staff

 

KVS #944 APRIL 2006:  SPECIFIC ENTRY/EXIT PLAN “DTE 2006” CONTINUES ITS

 SUCCESS.  ALSO FEATURED: “5 MINUTE” TOOL,  AND THE “OP40” SYSTEM

 

You may receive this release with a May postmark, but you are assured of the special Early User’s fee for DTE 2006.  We’re in transition between mailing services.  Our current service Langerfelds’ needs to retire due to circumstances beyond their control.  For over 30 years, Langerfelds’ has played an essential role in KVS promotions and order fulfillment, assembling our mailings and speeding them to investors.  We’ll miss their reliability and dedication  immeasurably, they were “part of the family”. We wish them our very best in their move and retirement.  In their final mailing here for KVS, a large contingent is included with whom we have not communicated for some time.  It would not be fair for anyone on our list to miss the early user special.  Therefore we’ve postponed the price increase to mid May.  We had stated that the reaching of 100 in the count of completed  DTE 2006 trades would trigger the increase.  At mid March the count was 95.  This prompts us to reissue the detailed record from #943 below, as the common basis for all prospective users to make their purchase decision.  The summary line does remind you that thru April 19 the trade count has risen to 114.  When  #945 adds another month, the early user fee will be withdrawn.  Meanwhile the working copy will be shared promptly with new users, and current users have been kept up to date by daily email.   

 

View Table

 

EXPANDED SUMMARY  9/1-4/19:  QUICK SALES  95 GAINS, 19 LOSSES  TOTAL +2655%;   RELAXED: 82 GAINS, 32 LOSSES  TOT +3589%

 

Profit Taking:  Quick or Relaxed?  “DTE 2006” uses a 30% Quick Profit goal, which varies modestly with rounding to executable prices, and by favorable openings.  It’s user’s choice whether to place open sell orders for day 1 and  2 exits, or to be more relaxed about selling and wait till the opening of the next day after the reaching of the quick goal, then sell.  The “relaxed tactic” may earn less gain, because the option has pulled back.  But other  times there is a reward for waiting.  Compare %GAIN totals in the detailed record, as well as on the Expanded Summary line, to help you decide which way you’ll go.

 

DTE 2006  Features & Fees:  Our latest invention, DTE (Daily Trade Email) 2006 owes its good record to the teamwork of two mechanical KVS option tools:  “EOP” (Ease Of Profit formulas) from last year, and the “2 Day Magnet”, a new tool.  DTE 2006 considers call option trades the Prime Direction because of the long term upward bias of the market. Each day it checks for a call signal first, then a put signal if a call does not qualify.  Put trades are flagged by * under  Entry Date.  Your 10 point checklist of features:  1. You get a trade plan for a specific index option for every trading day.  If there’s no new signal, you’re advised that this is the case, and receive only an open position update.  2. Email announcement the evening before entry.

3. No recommendation if  profit outlook is less than +30%.  4. Specific entry price.  5. Specific exit price.  (Continued on p. 4)

 

Favorite of Many Investors Since 1999: The “5 Minute” Tool  To combine day to day timing with large move signals, the "5 Minute" Tool has served investors with a high win ratio in up trends, down trends, and choppy interludes.  The tool has three keys.  How can you get the complete package?  With a KVS subscription or an option system purchase for only a $70 surcharge.  Key #1 is a simple mathematical observation of specific DJI values, just 5 minutes into the day.  It has foretold the direction for the day with an accuracy in the 60+ to 80+ percent range, giving buy signals for up days … (Recent record on p. 2, more on p.4)

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KVS #944  P. 3

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 11TH YEAR  -  2006 RECORD CONTINUES

WINNING TRADE RATIO:  PLANNED 75%,  ACHIEVED 79%

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Already in its 11th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its performance goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

View Table

 

 

The 79% win ratio (1489 gains/1893 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (63200/1893) exceeds the +24% goal.  So that results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit rises to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to under perform, limiting some periods to 10 or less trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and   receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Your special combo fee of $545 is less than the current $675 fee for Op40 alone.  Your hotline messages are a daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

View Table

 

More Choices for Systematic Option Trading   Options “40 In 4”, better known by its nick name “Op40”, has been our most popular option system since its first year.  We bring you a monthly update of both the long term record (previous page) and short term record (see above;  latest period, beyond Apr 4, is not complete, it will be in Rel #945).  Major appeal of Op40 to option traders is that you learn the system, then maintain a measure of control:   you have elbow room to make your own decisions whether to trade or not – depending on size of “TE” (Trading Edge) – and whether to settle for a smaller profit quicker, or try for a  “home run”:  note in the performance period above that there were no fewer than 5 opportunities for gains of +55% or better.  Different size profits are in different columns, for an easy scan of the distribution of smaller and larger gains.  What the Op40 logic does not give you is specific entry and exit prices.  If that’s what you prefer, give today’s intro to “DTE 2006” a close look.  Ideas for Op40/DTE 2006 teamwork: for those who have, or now acquire, both systems:  1.  If both favor the same option with concurrent signals, commit 1.5 times or even twice your usual $ amount to a trade.  2. If Op40 does not have a tradable signal but DTE 2006 does:  trade the DTE choice as if it were an Op40 choice.  Where + (plus) is appended to the date, one of the two teamwork conditions applied.  See the enhanced RPS score.  One RPS point represents a 40 to 59%  move by the selected option.   If you have yet to acquire Op40, see special offers on previous page.  If you misplaced your Op40 charter offer, restored briefly from 1996, it’s on  our website www.key-volume.com or call for a Fax:  877-350-3796.  Order toll free:  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.  Welcome to the KVS family of investment products:  our 37th year!

 

DTE 2006 Features & Fees  (cont’d from p.1)   6. Time limit is 3 days of holding, but with most gains taken in 1 or 2 days.  7. Outright buying & selling of options, no hedging (“spreads” etc.), no margin needed.   8. Availability of Early Use package that saves $150 (see below).  9. Whiles rules are provided, they need not  be learned by users with a hotline subscription.  Hotline is the same provided to KVS subscribers ($449/1 year, $279/6 mos) but there is a surcharge for the DTE section, which we detach and email separately to DTE 2006 users  ($145/1 year, $90/6 mos). 10. System Support:  For one-on-one Q & A, as well as for orders, our Email address is:  kvshotlines@aol.com.

 

Early User Special  with 3 Months Daily Email   This package gives you access to the DTE trade plan announced daily.  Since DTE is linked to the KVS Hotline, you’ll also get market timing advice and special features such Key #3 signals from the “5 Minute” Tool . Package includes prime direction trading rules $345 (one time), also contra rules for $100 extra, plus KVS/DTE hotline messages for 3 months $199.  Total = $544 or $644.  Either way you save $150. Order number:  800-334-0411 x12D.  -- More insight into DTE 2006 logic: there are two components.  (1) EOP (Ease of Profit formulas) for determining, from 2 day option price rises, whether the call or the put has more profit potential, and approximately how much.  (2) “2 Day Magnet” (2DM):   a specific price reached on the 2 day rise.  The 2DM math uses the price gap between 2DM itself  and the last closing price, to refine the profit potential to specific entry and exit prices.  For system users who learned to calculate EOP with the 2005 Supplement to Op40:  there is no change to the math, but the application of EOP values differs. 

 

“5 Minute” Tool  (from pp. 1 & 2) … as Mar 22 and Apr 3 (DJI up 82 and 36), and sell signals for down days as Mar 21 and Apr 11 (DJI down 39 and 52.)  Key #2 is an observation for verification, and at times the reversal of the Key #1 direction.  This key is no longer required because, since the discovery of Key #3, traders who prefer to work with only the larger moves, over 160 points most of the time, actually look forward to Key #1 being wrong!  This is because for Key #3 to have a job to do, Key #1 first has to be wrong for a day. If  the Key #3 column is blank, the entry in the DJI column was a gain for Key #1, as on 4/11:  DJI –52 was a gain for a SELL signal;  and on 4/12  DJI +40 was a gain for a BUY.  Key #3 had no job to do, key #1 had a gain.  When the Key #3 column shows BUY or SELL, Key #3 had to step in with that action to more than offset a Key #1 loss:  with a gain at least 3 times as large, in usually 2 to 5 days.  In the recent signal record on p. 2: observe the entries under Key #3 and Gain.  Then look left to the DJI column:  the DJI entry on the same row shows how much the one day loss for Key #1 was.  Examples:  4/4 DJI close was +59, but the day’s SELL signal called for minus;  3/31 close was –41, but day’s BUY signal called for plus. 

 

Now compare the Key #3 Gain to the losing DJI change, and see  Key #3 at work.  Using Key #1 and Key #3 as a combo has produced winning signals 94% of the time, see Combo column for Win:Loss ratio.  How does Key #3 get its revenge on behalf of Key #1?  It repeats the wrong-start signal from Key #1, within 3 days, and tries for a "triple", and usually gets more.  Examples:  after a 41 point Key #1 loss on the 3/31 buy signal, Key #3 gained 224.  After a 59 point Key #1 loss on the 4/4 sell signal, Key #3 took revenge gaining 277.  If the Key #3 gain is less than 3 times the Key #1 loss, the Combo column nearly always penalizes Key #3 with a "loss" as on the 3/28 signal:  Key #3 gained 224, but this was less than 3 x 96, therefore the Combo column shows a loss.  So as not to over penalize Key #3:  If the Key #1 loss was 200 or more, Key #3 has to make the loss good at least 2 to 1, rather than 3 to 1.

 

"5 Minute" Tool:  Intraday and Two-Way Profits   Note that a modest end-of-day change can hide a snappy move of  40 or more points during the day.  To illustrate the two-way profit power of Key #1 signals, the INDY (intraday) column shows those intraday moves which exceeded the closing loss in the opposite direction, or gained at least 40 pts in the signaled direction.  Thus while Key #1 was officially wrong, intraday exits produced greater than offsetting gains. Had we counted the intraday gains rather than the closing losses in the Key #1 wins column, the ratio would be boosted from 64% to above 80%.

 

Key #3: Entry & Exit Logic   We do not advise entry of Key #3 signals “at the market".  Our statistics from precedents suggest:  1. How many DJI points to subtract from a buy signal day's closing, or add to a sell signal day's closing, for initial entry.  2. How many points to subtract or add for occasional extra entry.  3. How many points of Key #3 “revenge” to try for.  For both entry and exit, we use theoretical DJI readings as triggers.  Users with no access to these can observe the actual lows and assume theoretical buy levels available 30 points lower;  likewise, 30 points above actual highs, theoretical sell targets can be assumed hit.  We have worked with theoretical DJI highs and lows for 36+ years:  they truly reflect overbought and oversold extremes.  To help you get Key #3 gains, the 5 Minute keys come with Key #3 entry & exit logic. Add a modest $70 surcharge to your order for an option system (Op40 or DTE 2006) or to a KVS (Key-Volume Strategies) subscription, and specify that you wish the keys of the “5 Minute” Tool.  Thanks again for choosing KVS systems and services!

     

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 10TH YEAR  -  2005 RECORD CONTINUES

WINNING TRADE RATIO:  PLANNED 75%,  ACHIEVED 79%

*******************************************************************

 

Already in its 10th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its performance goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

View Table

 

 

The 79% win ratio (1412 gains/1792 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +34% rise (60200/1792) exceeds the +24% goal.  So that results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit rises to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to under perform, limiting some periods to 10 or less trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Special for October! “9 to 1 Edge Finder”, soon to cost $350 by itself, in a two-system package with Op40 for only $645, less than the regular  $675 fee for Op40 alone.  And  receive besides:  Two months toll free voice, or Email  hotline package:  Separate messages for Op40, and “9 to 1” plus market timing,.  Hotlines are a daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge and the “9 to 1” Edge.  Hotlines compute the edges as well!

View Table

 

 

More Choices for Systematic Option Trading   In the Op40 record above, if a signal date is flagged + (plus):  Extra gains were available  via teamwork with another KVS option product:  the  “9 to 1 Edge Finder”, featured in Rel #938.  If you have yet to acquire Op40, see special offers on the previous page.  If you misplaced the Op40 charter offer, restored briefly from 1996, it’s on  our website www.key-volume.com or request by Fax:  877-350-3796.  Current special for Op40 without “9 to 1” :  $545 including 2 months Options Hotline. Our website is also a good source for recent KVS releases.  To receive KVS releases regularly every month, so we may cycle you thru our product line with features such as you found in #938 & 939, special rates are $279 for 6 months or $449 for a full year.  Subscriptions also include four mini market letters per week via Email hotline, teaching you how to work with Magnetic Bands,  Big One-Day Changes,  Key-Dates, and other KVS tools.  Order toll free:  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.  Welcome to KVS!.

 

Magnetic Bands Table  (page 2)target count sequence, particularly where two zones meet, as bands #90 & #91, and #97 & #98,  makes both bands stronger.  A sharp rise in target count, since the previous table, also makes a band extra strong.  The biggest rises in target counts have occurred in bands #95, 96 and 94, in that order.  We number 100 point bands low to high to give them an ID.  The 50 point bands inside are marked HI 50, the upper 50 point half,  and LOW 50, the lower 50 point half.  An especially strong magnetic band first pulls the market into it, then repels it back into the nearest strong band above or below.  Today's table is divided into these five investment zones:  Upside Blowoff (bands 98-101), Resistance (94-97), Transition (91-93), Short Term Support (88-90), and Long Term Support (87 and below).  Transition means:  repeating switching of the function of these bands between resistance and support.

Strongest band of each zone is flagged by double*.  Other strong ones are flagged by single *.  In bold you see the corresponding most influential focal numbers.  Each is the nucleus for target concentration in a given band.  Strongest band is now #95, with #94 & 96 in close pursuit.

 

With all 3 of the strongest bands pulling the market upward from short term support, an up trend is likely for the rest of 2005, with a late year high a few points from 10900. Right end of the table gives you timing detail about swings in both directions, numbered 1 to 9 for the most likely sequence of target achievement.  Trading Budget Allocation  This is how much of your trading budget should be in stocks, depending on the investment zone the DJI is in:  Upside Blowoff zone (11100-11499) 50%;  Resistance zone (10700-11099) 60%;  Transition zone (10400-10699) 70%;  Short Term Support (10300-10499) 75%;  Long Term Support (under 10100) 80%.  Rest should be in reserve (cash instruments), a portion of which can be put to work in index puts for portfolio protection.  That portion should not exceed 10% of your total reserve if you do not use an option system such as Op40 .  If  you do, the portion may be up to 20%.

 

Six Favored Stocks   Held up on recent market drop, buy for at least +25% gain, at or under:  INTERMUNE (ITMN) 15.60, NOVELL (NOVL) 7.70, INTEL (INTC) 23.80,  TENET HLTH (THC) 11, CLEAR CHANNEL (CCU) 32, CONVERGYS (CVG) 14.40.  We select our stocks based on two requirements:

1. Stock must give back at least one third of its recent gain, made on a rally  which included “Key-Volume”,  a very high volume seldom reached by the given stock.  After the required pullback, stock is considered attractively priced for a new rally of at least 25%.  2. Insider buying has been evident. 

 

 

 

KVS #938 AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2005:  A SYSTEM WITH 81% WINNERS

Yet we charge only $70, why?    Introduction expanded from #936

 

The “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (hereafter called by its nickname “9 to 1”) made its debut with its 2000-2001 version, with the purpose of giving trading signals only when there is a 90% probability of a quick gain: +25% or better within 4 days, normally in 2-3 days.  Too much to expect?  Admittedly, we did not get it perfect.  But the error margin has been rewardingly small.  Perfect achievement of the “9 to 1” goal would have produced winners 90% of the time.  The “real world” achievement has been winners 81% of the time.  More than 35 years of system production and pricing experience tell us:

 

That should easily justify 5 times our price, or $350 instead of only $70.  This is particularly so because we don’t mean an annual fee:  we mean a lifetime fee.  You pay it once and you own a copy!  We have kept the fee lower than practical because the stringent 90% probability requirement does make “9 to 1” a less busy signal generator than our most popular system “Op40” (Options 40 In 4).  However, with fresh emphasis on second trades with lower buys on single signals, plus no fewer than five 2005 innovations for more profit in less time, we do feel that the time is ripe for a price revision:

 

The fee for the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” will rise to $350 in October 2005

 

Meanwhile you have more time to acquire “9 to 1” for still only $70, a low enough price to consider it only a “bump” on Op40 for extra capability.  Two key benefits from the two-system combo:  1. When “9 to 1” favors the same direction as Op40, you may want to commit more dollars to a signal because of the 90% probability of profit.  2. When “9 to 1” buys into a signal a second time, do this buy to add to Op40 profits.  The 2005 record for “9 to 1”, continued from #936, has an extra POS 2 row for every second position.  In the Op40 performance record (p.4) note the significant  profit boost in period #129 from “9 to 1”.

 

Order the Current $70 Version, then Get the 2005 Version as a Bonus!  This bonus is a $280 immediate gain for you, the price difference between the two versions.  Give the 2005 table a  scan (next page), then we’ll complete the special offers:

 

Neither the trading signal logic, nor the signal decision table supported on the KVS hotlines, is changing from the 2000-2001 version, thus there is no need to wait and pay a higher price.  We still have room in the quota for the original version at the $70 fee that’s about to become obsolete.  Take advantage, it’s not obsolete yet!  The innovations that will first be available in the 2005 version have to do with more efficient buy & sell order pricing, and reduced holding time.  You’ll decide for yourself, after you’re acquainted with the detail, that in any event the higher fee is fully earned by “9 to 1”.  The 2005 version will:

 

1.      Lower the MAX buy (maximum buy price) so as to pay less than the next day’s opening price (NXOP) in many cases.

2.      Lower the MID buy (mid point of buying range between NXOP and best available) with new formulas able to estimate the best available price (BEST AVL) more closely.

3.      Narrow the gap between Best Sale and Targeted Sale prices.  Maximum target of the 2000-2001 version has been +57%, but note in the last row of the 2005 table:  average of best available gains has comfortably exceeded +70%.

4.      Use a 3 DAY time limit, infrequently 4.  If day # in the last column of any “9 to 1” table is flagged by * a larger gain was available later but “9 to 1” decided to forego it, for faster reuse of capital.  Up to 6 days have been allowed previously.

5.      Review as needed, at least quarterly, whether a market “personality change” is distorting opening prices, and share appropriate buy pricing changes with users.  More about this on page 4, including our latest experience.

 

How Does “9 to 1” Work?  After the close of each trading day the system checks the day’s prices, and 3 day price patterns, in a certain way, using two specific index options.  Formulas employ basic math to decide if there is a trading signal for a specific option, nearly always one of the two just evaluated.  Learn to determine the signal type on your own, or let the KVS Hotline do it for you.  Then simply look up the signal type in a Decision Table, and place your orders for next day to take the indicated action(s).  Entry & Exit prices are given in narrow ranges, often single prices for initial buy as well as possible second buy.  The KVS Hotline, your choice of voice or Email, makes special comments as needed, particularly to follow up open signals.

 

System Support  For your first two months the KVS Hotline is required:  it will help you till the rules become second nature, to avoid any misinterpretation and wrong option choices.  If you still have questions, you’ll have Email addresses and phone numbers for Q&A.  To continue with this convenience past the 2 months:  you’ll get special renewal offers for 6 months and 1 year.  Hotline subscribers also receive comprehensive short term market timing advice in the same messages, and in a 4-page feature on one or more systems or tools once or twice a month:  these are the “KVS  Releases”, now in their 36th year

View Table

 

 

Signals since 8/25  were not yet complete at the publication deadline for this table, they will be shown with full data in the next monthly table

 

How to Get Started with “9 to 1”  To get the rules and start the hotline, choose from:  A. “9 to 1” $70, Hotline 2 months $100, total $170.  B. “9 to 1” $70, Hotline 6 mos $279, total $349 (less than the system alone will cost soon).  C. “9 to 1” $70, Hotline 1 year $449, total $519.  No matter which package you choose, you’ll also get the 4 page special features described under System Support, and you’ll get a free upgrade to the 2005 version within 2 months.  Order toll free 800-334-0411 x12N or by Email to kvshotlines@aol.com.  Already have “9 to 1”, or you wish to order “Op40” for more trading action?  See p. 4. 

 

 

 

  

KVS #938 P. 3

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 10TH YEAR  -  2005 RECORD CONTINUES

WINNING TRADE RATIO:  PLANNED 75%,  ACHIEVED 79%

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Already in its 10th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its performance goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

View Table

 

The 79% win ratio (1399gains/1777 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +34% rise (59760/1777) exceeds the +24% goal.  So that results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit rises to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to under perform, limiting some periods to 10 or less trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Special for September!  The “9 to 1 Edge Finder”, soon to cost $350 by itself, in a two-system package with Op40 for only $645, less than the regular  $675 fee for Op40 alone.  And  receive besides:  Two months toll free voice, or Email  hotline package:  Separate messages for Op40, and “9 to 1” plus market timing,.  Hotlines are a daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge and the “9 to 1” Edge.  Hotlines compute the edges as well!

View Table

 

More Choices for Systematic Option Trading   In the Op40 record above, if a signal date is flagged + (plus):  Extra gains were available  via teamwork with other KVS option products such as the  “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see pp. 1, 2 and below),  and the “5 Minute Tool” featured in KVS #937.  If you have yet to acquire Op40, see special offers on the previous page, after the table, and also in KVS #937.  If you misplaced the Op40 charter offer, restored briefly from 1996, it’s on  our website www.key-volume.com or request it from KVS Systems Support:  877-350-3796.  Current special for Op40 without the “9 to 1” or

 “5 Minute Tool”:  $545 including 2 months Options Hotline. Our website is also a good source for recent KVS releases.  If a release is no longer posted, subscribers are welcome to request it as a Word file attachment or by Fax..  To receive KVS releases regularly (once or twice a month) so we may cycle you thru our product line with features such as you found in #937 & 938, special rates are $279 for 6 months or $449 for a full year.  Subscriptions also include four mini market letters per week (every night except Saturday and Monday) via Email hotline, teaching you how to work with Magnetic Bands,  Big One-Day Changes,  Key-Dates, and other KVS tools.  Order toll free:  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.  Welcome to KVS!

 

Market Personality Change?  How index option prices behave at the opening, the day after a “9 to 1” signal, becomes important input to the “9 to 1” buy pricing logic.  Since late June an unusual number of inflated openings caused missed trades for the 2005 test version.  Our logic building was focused on high profit potential trades with an estimated Mid-Buy price of 2.35 or less.  Mid-Buy is the average of Max-Buy and Best Available.  We underlined those cases in the Mid-Buy column (p.2) which show 2.35 barely available, or not available.  When 2.35 was missed, an inflated Max-Buy was usually responsible.  We underlined  Max-Buy prices of 2.60 or more on the same rows, for special attention. Remember that Max-Buy is always the …

 

Opening price, thus never missed by the current 2000 version, which buys at the opening rather than at a preset price.  But the 2005 version tries to do better, not just for sharp shooting but also to give users the fringe benefit of sometimes accomplishing in one trade what the 2000 version does in two.  Close look at a high opening handicap:  8/5 signal was followed by opening at 3.10,  requiring an almost 50% drop to enable Mid-Buy at 2.35, to outperform the 2000 version buys at 3.10 and 2.10, average 2.60.  Such sharp drops after strong openings are rare, suggesting further study  to produce the most effective buy formulas.  We’re also doing a pilot on what we call “Early Conviction Trading” to determine when a strong opening appears inflated, but it is actually safe to enter, as after the 7/11 and 7/12 signals. We’ll take the rest of September and early October to finalize the 2005 version, focusing on suspicious openings.  This gives the current low “9 to 1 Edge Finder” fee a  brief extension.

VOLUME 36, NO. 5, BOB CONRAD, EDITOR

 

Dear Current or Prospective KVS Subscriber or System User:  If you  received Release #932 a short time ago, note that the record herewith is for a full 6 months, and replaces the record in #932.  If you have not ordered PSF/EOP yet, be advised that the instruction memo series is not complete yet, therefore special prerelease offers will continue to be honored.  But little time remains, we advise you to take advantage without delay.  We’re pleased to offer this repeat opportunity.    KVS Staff

 

“EOP” (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS EXCEED GOAL:

+2376% ADDED TO “OP40” RECORD IN 6 MONTHS”

 

For 9 years a substantial amount of extra profit remained untapped for users of “Op40”, the Options “40 In 4” system.  All this time Op40 has been consistently averaging a win ratio of 79%, and the incentive to improve on this has been limited.  But as the number of users increased gradually, we felt a growing commitment to “enlarge the playing field”.  Mid year 2004:  we began a concentrated effort with this goal, and persisted until we could deliver a supplemental option product which can produce:

 

Profitable trades from most signals with a low “TE” (Trading Edge):  Too low for the basic Op40 rules to exploit.

 

What is “TE”, the Trading Edge?  It is an Op40 exclusive:  the bread and butter of the “Options 40 In 4” (Op40) system.  Each day after completion of trading on the CBOE (Chicago Board of Options Exchange), exclusive formulas using basic math go to work on the price action of index options in a certain range.  They narrow the large options population to just two options:  one call and one put.  From the relative price action of these two options “TE” (Trading Edge) is calculated.  It is normally a number from 0 to 12.  When TE is in the 5 to 9 range, trading the option with the edge has been reliably profitable, with never a losing year, to the tune of +40% or more in 4 sessions or less.  Therefrom the name:  “Options 40 In 4”.

 

This was easy to be comfortable with, and we just “let Op40 roll” while we redirected our system invention energy to other systems such as:  “9 to 1 Edge Finder”, “5 Minute Tool”, Natural Volatility (“NV1, NV2, AV1”), “ODA” (One Day Advantage), “SPP” (Sell Price Predictor) and others.  But our loyalty to Op40 kept reclaiming our attention like a magnet, with new bursts of fascination for the untapped profits from low Trading Edges.  Finally we simply “had to” produce new logic to explore the hidden treasure.  And we’ve done it!

 

The record on this page and next shows what the new “PSF/EOP” supplement has been capable of with TE = 1,2,3,4 signals in 6 months since September 2004.  “EOP” stands for Ease Of Profit formulas, which any user can calculate in 3 to 10 minutes a day.  “PSF” stands for Profit Size Forecaster, the logic that produces the trading signals, and entry and exit limits and ranges, using the EOP numbers.  The record intends to show you not only the outcome of the 42 signals (37 gains and 5 losses) but our originality and thoroughness as well, so be prepared for some short lived mystery as to the column content.  As soon as you become a user it will all be revealed to you, so just give it a scan and light study for now, to launch your acquaintance:

View Table

 

 

Time for a little more description, before we complete the table on the next page.  If you have Email, we just don’t have your address yet, 6 months of Email hotline will be included with what we think is an almost incredibly low priced early user offer: $410 if you already have Op40, otherwise $690 which includes Op40, a prerequisite, as well.  These fees have been superceded but are still honored   with the assumption that you have not received a PSF/EOP offer before.  Email Hotline Pinpoint Codes will enable you to trade with PSF/EOP even if you don’t learn all the rules for independent use.  Are you nervous that you haven’t seen losses yet?  You’ll find 5 as you go on to the next page.  Thinking about how much capital you’ll need?  As little as $3000.  Read on! (The TE=0 record will be released after there’s a loss;  so far 7 trades, 7 gains, +517% cumulative.)

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.             KVS/STOCK PERFORMER RELEASE #933                  March/April 2005

 

Just as the parent product “Op40”, the PSF/EOP supplement buys index options outright (no margin needed for hedges!), either calls or puts, infrequently both, nearly every day.  Most trades last 2 or 3 sessions  (see DAY column near right end of table), with a limit of 5.  After we complete the table, we’ll highlight additional introductory comments from our recent Q&A record.  You’ll learn from the Q&A that while our prime development thrust was directed to low TE (Trading Edge) signals, fringe benefits accrued to other system decisions as:  knowing when to buy “at” the market rather than try for less; when to stay with a suspiciously long same direction signal sequence and when to trade against it ; and when to buy more on a dip, and what size.

 

One more special insight for you:  scan the Early Goal & Response column.  PSF uses specific criteria to determine from the early response of an option, on its day of purchase (day 1) and at the opening of the next day (day 2), whether to adjust the initial profit % goal up or down, and by how much.  PSF rates the response Slow, Quick, Extreme or Danger.  And it judges the outcome of an apparent Whipsaw.  PSF is capable of some unexpectedly large gains by rarely advising sale on Day 1.

 

Step by Step Trading Rules:  How to Order   Please see the last page of this mail or Email, which also updates the performance of the parent product “Op40”.  An Op40 signal date flagged by + (plus) was not traded by Op40, but was traded by the new PSF/EOP logic:  look for those dates in the 6 month PSF/EOP record herewith.  A separate page summarizes the long term Op40 record since inception in 1996.  If you have yet to order Op40 and you misplaced the charter offer, briefly restored to enable an Op40/PSF/EOP package, go to our website for a refresher (www.key-volume.com) or call 800-334-0411 x12P and ask for a fax copy.  Thank you for choosing the KVS family of systems and services!    

View Table

 


Q: May I have a preview of the "Ease Of Profit" formula? And how does it relate to Profit Size Forecasting?

A: The magnitude of 2 and 3 day option price rises, measured separately for the put and call options used for daily Op40 signal determination, has substantial predictive value for optimal buy and sell prices, not only for options in the direction of the current signal(s) but in the opposite direction as well. Certain signals are reversed, to deliver "surprise" profits in the other direction. The remaining signals are left to the standard Op40 rules, most often if TE > 4, or they invoke the greater pricing precision of the new supplement.  "EOP" is the new formula for the measurements that make these improvements possible. EOP values are computed daily, and remain in use for 3 trading sessions. We call the body of existing rules and guidelines the Profit Size Forecaster: PSF. In other words, EOP provides the formula, and PSF uses it in actual trading. PSF decisions on trade direction, and on buy and sell targets, are made so as to achieve the optimal profit size under the given conditions concluded from an Op40 signal and its environment. That's why we chose the name: Profit Size Forecaster.

Q: In what ways does the greater precision of the new logic help Op40 users to more profit?
                         
1. Op40:  Prevents a number of trades because of low Trading Edge:  TE = 2, 3, 4

          PSF/EOP: Generates a trade in most cases, usually reversing the signal direction

2. Op40: Never trades TE = 1. PSF/EOP: Uses special logic to trade TE = 1, even TE = 0.

 

3. Op40: Not afraid to trade the same direction as long as signals persist. Overshoots the mark at times.

   PSF/EOP:  Has rules for reducing profit goal, or changing direction on N-th or later signal.

 

4. Op40: Guidelines favor buying under the previous close. Some upside runaways are missed.

   PSF/EOP: Has firm exception rules for timely buys on up gaps, with gains of 60% or more.
          

5. Op40: Has guidelines for advantageous buying under the signal close, but no predefined buy ranges.

   PSF/EOP: Has predefined buy ranges that vary with EOP values
            
6. Op40: No second buy on same signal.  PSF/EOP: Some second buys on dips

7. Op40: Becomes cautious as TE rises, particularly when TE reaches 10.

   PSF/EOP: Has special buy and sell rules for high TE signals:  TE = 8 or above.
            
8. Op40: Gains of 50% or more normally require sequence of 2 or more signals in same direction.

   PSF/EOP:  Has rules for aiming high, independent of same direction sequences
            

Full Method Review:  Big One Day Changes of 90 or more DJI Points   KVS has many original technical tools for Market Timers.  Learn one right here!  Is such a big up-day a message that a new uptrend is underway, or a one day wonder that improves prices for selling?  Is such a big down-day a message that we’re off on a new selling wave, or is it a trumpet call for bargain buying?  For the answer, each occurrence must be evaluated individually, using:  1. Direction, 2. Size, 3. Sequence, 4. “PDPS”.  Despite the appearance, we are not dealing with random swings: there is a clear message in each daily DJI closing that is down 90 or more points, or up 90 or more, from the previous day’s close.  Since 1998 there have been 625 such messages through Mar 22, 2005.  The table below presents the 10 signals from Big One Day Changes so far this year:

View Table

 

 Definitions:  1. Direction: big up or big down day?  We present rules separately for each direction.  2. Size: If the big change

 is in the 90-159 range, the size is moderate (M).  If the big change is 160-229 points, the size is large (L).  If the change is 230 or more, the size is extreme (X).  3. Sequence (SEQ): Looking at only days with big changes of 90 or more, SEQ = 1 if the change is in the opposite direction from the previous; SEQ = 2, 3, 4, etc. indicate the second, third, fourth or subsequent big change in the same direction.  Past SEQ = 9 sequence numbering restarts with 1 whether the signal is in the opposite direction or still the same.  4. PDPS: Points down since last previous sell signal, measured from the high on day of signal or even higher point if reached within the next 3 days, to the signal day low.  We use theoretical highs and lows for these measurements.  If the new signal is less than 3 days past the previous,  we measure points down from latest preceding signal, which occurred at least 3 days before the new signal, so the high is not in doubt. Rise or fall shown for each signal took place in 7 or fewer sessions.

                                                                                                                                                                                          

 sell signals from Big One-Day Changes:  From up days, #1 through #5 in a sequence (U1, U2 … U5), and again if  SEQ = 9 is reached (U9), the signal is sell if Size = M or Size = X.  -- From down days, if SEQ = 1 the signal is sell (D1) if Size = M and PDPS <500, or without regard to PDPS if Size = X.  If SEQ = 2 it’s a sell (D2) if Size = X and PDPS <500, or without regard to PDPS if Size = M.  BUY Signals:  From up days (U1 thru U9) the signal is buy if Size = L.  Should the up-sequence reach 6:  up to 3 signals may be buys (U6, U7, U8) even if Size = M or X, provided one of these conditions is met:  PDPS >349, or PDPS is in the 100 to 349 range, and signal day high exceeds the start of the drop from the last sell signal.  -- From down days, if SEQ = 1 signal is buy (D1) if Size = M and PDPS >499, or without regard to PDPS if Size = L.  SEQ = 2 is a buy (D2) if Size = X and PDPS >499, or without regard to PDPS if Size = L.  SEQ = 3 or more is unconditional buy (D3, D4, etc.).   

 

 KVS/Stock Performer Mar 24 Hotline Message  Prospective users of our market service, and option system buyers will be equally pleased to experience that the KVS “mini market letters” are frequent and specific.  Example follows.  One or two “market releases” a month, and educational supplements as in #933 herewith, introduce investors to our family of original technical tools now in their 36th year, as those highlighted in bold in the quoted hotline message.  Each message can be heard as a recording, or received in your designated Email box, by 11 PM, 4 nights a week. See next page for special offers.  

 

“A new comment about the Key-Date Reversal outlook, along with the highlighting of several stocks, is reserved for the Sunday Market Update. We now call your attention to the latest signals from the following:  Key #3 of the "5-Minute" Tool: No position was taken on the March 18th signal. A new buy signal was given today. Its entry point is DJI 10373, and its type is FX5 or FX7, depending on the number of positions taken.  Big One Day Changes: A new buy signal was given Wednesday. Its upside target is a minimum of 10787.  "9 to 1 Edge Finder": A new signal to buy the Apr570 call, OEBDN, at Monday's opening. Use condition code "A" for profit. The decision table code is W3SL1. The minimum target for the Apr550 put is 2.90, with a high-risk range of 3.60-3.90.

Two-Way Signals: A new buy alert for the market was given at Thursday's close, at DJI 10443. The maximum DJI buy target is 10379. “  Detailed signal and entry/exit rules, for any given highlighted tool,  are available for only a $70 surcharge with a market service subscription.

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 10TH YEAR UNDERWAY  -  MARCH/APRIL 2005

WINNING TRADE RATIO:  PLANNED 75%,  ACHIEVED 79%

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Already in its 10th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its performance goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

View Table

 

The 79% win ratio (1330 gains/1689 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +34% rise (57060%/1689) exceeds the +24% goal.  So that results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit rises to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to under perform, limiting some periods to 10 or less trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Special for 15 days only:  choose our 2005 innovation, the PSF (Profit Size Forecaster)/EOP (Ease Of Profit) supplement as a package with Op40 for only $690, just $15 more than the regular  $675 fee for Op40 alone.  And  receive besides:  Two months toll free voice, or Email "Op40" hotline:  Your daily price source and learning aid, gives you the open, high, low and close of the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline does the computation as  well.  See next page for a $545 package.

View Table

 

Q: What are my ordering choices for “Op40” and the 2005 Supplement? And what about your market and stock service?

 

A: If you do not have Op40 yet you’re welcome to this comprehensive package:  Op40 + 2005 Supplement (PSF/EOP) + 2 months options hotline by Email = $690.  If you do have Op40 but you have just learned about the 2005 Supplement, you’re welcome to the PSF/EOP pre release fee of only $155 in combination with a 6 month options hotline term for $255, total $410, although the fees have risen.  Hotline will not remain an ongoing requirement, but you’ll be welcome to continue at favorable rates because the hotline does report PSF/EOP signals daily, with action(s) to be taken, and references to rules for ease of learning and accuracy of interpretation.   For Op40 and 2 months hotline without the 2005 supplement the fee is $545.

 

36th Anniversary Specials for Market Timers   If your emphasis is on Market Timing and Stock Trading, we’re pleased to offer you special subscription rates to the KVS/Stock Performer service that recently began its 36th year:  $279/6 mos or $449/full year.  You receive one or two detailed presentations per month on our original technical systems and tools, as in Release #933, and 4 “mini market letters” per week by Email (or recorded if you prefer).  That’s more than 200 communications a year!  As a bonus choose the 2005 Stock Trader’s Almanac which focuses on seasonal market timing on 192 pages (value $40) or choose an extra subscription month.  800-334-0411 x12K or send Email to:   kvshotlines@aol.com.   Welcome!

 

 

========================================================

NEWSLETTER EXCERPT: SAMPLER FOR OUR MARKET AND STOCK TIMING

========================================================

 

                                            *****************************************

                                               OUR 1998 MODEL PINPOINTS 2002 BOTTOM

                                            *****************************************

 

Those who call our Market Hotline regularly heard our forecast for a July/August 2002 bottom at DJI 7487.  Our basis was:  similarities between the final stages of the 1998 and 2002 declines.  The bottom occurred on July 23 at 7490, just 3 points from our target.  What were our clues that similarities would give us a near bull's-eye?  1. The final stage of both declines produced 11 big single day changes, 90 points or more, within a month.  2. This wind-up period began, in both cases, after buying support at 9100 failed.  3. Both bottom formations included, just outside the wind-up period, 12 consecutive two-way signals, and this was a false indication of enduring day-to-day profitability in both directions, giving way to a one sided bearish resolution.  --  In 1998, as soon as 9100 was violated by100 points we observed the day's theoretical low, which was 8811.  This was within the first 2 big down days.  We measured the additional drop to the 7380 bottom:  8811 - 7380 = 1431.  In 2002 the matching low to 8811 was 8918.  We simply projected the same size drop for the 2002 wind-up:  8918 - 1431 = 7487.  We've had two confirmations that 7490 was indeed the bottom:  ...   (continued next page under stocks)

 

Magnetic Bands:  How Support & Resistance Are Built  The building blocks of the table, in use for 22 years, are 2147 short term DJI drops of 60 or more points, and corresponding rebounds of at least 60.  Here's how we get magnetic bands and focal numbers for forecasting:  When the starting level of a 60 point or larger DJI decline is revisited or passed on a rally, the formula gives us 4 target numbers.  We sort them into 50-point DJI bands, and keep a target count for each band.  The higher the count, the more magnetic the band.  We number 100 point bands low to high to give them an ID.  The 50 point bands inside are marked HI 50, the upper 50 point half,  and LOW 50, the lower 50 point half.  An especially strong magnetic band first pulls the market into it, then repels it back into the nearest strong band above or below.  Today's table segment is divided into 3 zones:  Resistance (bands 74-83), Trading/Transition (66-73), and Support (58-65).  Strongest band of each zone is flagged by a double*.  Other strong ones are flagged by *.  In bold you see the corresponding most influential focal numbers.  Each such number is the nucleus for target concentration in a given band.  All targets are intraday extremes, reported in financial statistics as theoretical highs & lows.  At the right end of the table you find timing detail about swings in both directions, numbered from 1 to 7 to give you the most likely sequence of target achievement.

View Table

 

  TRADING LIST AND BUY/SELL POINTERS         Since #873 we have had to lower the selling goals of most stocks because of a persistent bear trend that does not invite long holding periods. Reviewing the basics for new readers:all our selections meet the key-volume signal pattern requirement, and charts show insider buying.  For highlights and revisions call the Market Hotline regularly.  If you have no access, choose from offers at the end of this page.  Buy/Sell Pointers:  1. Always check the current goal for any stock bought from an earlier list.   2. Use this special sell tactic if potential exceeds +45%:  settle for two thirds the potential, but with a 60% limit, then rebuy on a one third to one half retracement.   3. Stocks that have risen enough to lower potential below +20% may be bought only on a dip.

-----------------------------------------          The list is in order high to low by Profit Potential (POTL).
|  SELECTION   SYM    7/26   GOAL  POTL |          So as not to expect too much too soon from any stock, use the
| ===========  ====  =====  =====  ==== |          Safe Selling then Rebuying tactic described above.  Call the
| QWEST        Q      1.50   5.85 +290% |          Index Hotline in addition to the Market Hotline regularly.
| CONSECO      CNC     .86   2.95 +269% |
| METRIS       MXT    2.85   8.60 +202% |          Several stocks on the list have listed call options.  For every
| CORVAS INT   CVAS   1.47   3.55 +141% |          $3 to $6 in a stock, consider committing $1 to its call
| STOCKERYALE  STKR   1.99   4.52 +127% |          option which is the least out of the money, and expires
| AM TOWER A   AMT    2.31   4.88 +111% |          no sooner than in 3 months.  Calls tend to gain at least
| CORNING      GLW    2.92   5.85 +100% |          3 times as much, in percent, as their underlying stocks.
| HANOVR COMPR HC     7.15  13.56  +90% |
| ALPHA TECH   ATGI   1.25   2.25  +80% |          Review "Magnetic Bands" on p. 1, do most buying under band
| FLEMING COS  FLM   15.00  26.42  +76% |          #74.  Keep in mind the necessity to protect stocks with puts.
| SOLUTIA      SOI    6.05  10.31  +70% |          Because we don't advise short sales, you need to position
| SCI ATLANTA  SFA   11.48  19.04  +66% |          yourself for downside market action through purchase of put
| AHL SVCS     AHLS   1.10   1.82  +65% |          options.  Our option systems guide you daily on puts and
| US BANCORP   USB   19.67  31.25  +59% |          calls.  See the feature on Options "40 In 4" on last 2 pages.
| GREKA ENGY   GRKA   5.01   7.72  +54% |
| HEI INC      HEII   5.50   8.28  +51% |          To learn how to select stocks to trade, the same way we do,
| IMC GLOBAL   IGL    9.75  14.29  +47% |          and to set buy and sell prices systematically, subscribers are
| AOL TIME W   AOL   10.90  15.70  +44% |          welcome to the chart and rule review in back issue #740.
| DIVERSA      DVSA   8.97  12.83  +43% |          You can apply these rules to stocks you're considering
| EXCO RES     EXCO  14.71  21.05  +43% |          from any source, and make your own trading decisions.
| For bargain buys, read from top down  |          A stock that has retraced at least one half of its recent
| For strong stocks read from bottom up |          Key-Volume signal-move has good downside protection
-----------------------------------------          and may be bought without waiting for a fixed DJI level

Bottom Confirmations   (from p. 1) ... 1. In 1998 the bottom occurred on a big up day:  up 288 after an initial slide.  Likewise in 2002 the bottom occurred on a big up day:  up 489 after an initial slide.  2. In both years, within a week after the bottom, a second big up day, near 400 points, followed.  In 1998 it was +381.  In 2002 it was +447.  Because the 2002 recovery is taking place at a much faster pace than was the case in 1998, we'll make no further near term forecasts using 1998 as a model.  We feel the best vehicle now to forecast both directions is the updated table of Magnetic Bands on page 1.

 

Short Term Market Swing Sequence   The subset of the Magnetic Bands table that we show today is what we called the Bargain Basement:  the confidence repair zone for jittery bulls, when in #874/875 we showed bands all the way up to #103:  DJI 11600-11699.  As we go to press, a giant rally penetrated into the Resistance zone, stopping in band #74.  Note in our swing sequence numbering at the right end of the table that crossing 8300 would have sufficed, then after a pullback under 8200 bulls could have tackled 8600-8700 with a cooler head, showing more conviction than impatience.  Instead, we had an encore on "too much too soon".  Thus, for the time being, the 1998 and 2002 parallels have parted ways.

 

"MRM":  Major Risk Measurement Gauge   A byproduct of the Op40 system featured on the next two pages, "MRM" signals only 2-3 times a month, when the profit opportunity in OEX put options is +100% to +200%.  We have just reported by hotline that MRM = 13 and the OEX Aug405 put is the MRM choice, max buy 2.35 (closed at 2.40 at MRM alert time), buying range suggested by MRM formulas is 1.80 to 1.35.  Sell 200% above the lowest price reached.  Because options move fast, best way to trade with MRM is by calling our hotlines regularly, or by catching signals on your own.

 

Anniversary Specials, Grace Period:  33rd Year Continues!   Start or extend a KVS/Stock Performer subscription, two mailings per month and multiple hotline updates, usually 4 each week.  Get the rules for trading signals from Big One Day Changes, or "MRM" as your subscription bonus, choose a full year for $449, or 6 months for $279.  With the full year term you're welcome to both tools:  a double bonus.  Phone us to subscribe, or purchase "Op40" or both:  800-334-0411 ext. 12M  or use  Email:  sterlingop40@aol.com.  Thank you for choosing our systems and services!

 

 

NEWSLETTER EXCERPT: SAMPLER FOR OUR MARKET AND STOCK TIMING

                                ******************************************************************

                        RALLIES COME AND RALLIES GO,  BUT THE KEYS OF THE

                                "5 MINUTE" TOOL OPEN THE PROFIT DOOR IN BOTH DIRECTIONS

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                                                                                                                    VOL. 34,  NO. 13    Bob Conrad - Editor

 

To combine day to day timing with large move signals, the "5 Minute" Tool has served investors with a high win ratio in uptrends, downtrends and choppy interludes alike, since 1999.  The tool has three keys.  How can you get them?  By making them a bonus choice with a subscription or an option system purchase, see offers on last page.  Key #1 is a simple mathematical observation of specific DJI values, just 5 minutes into the trading day, or as soon thereafter as you can take the readings.  Key #1 has foretold the direction for the day with an accuracy in the 64% to 85% range, giving buy signals for up days such as Mar 13 and 14 (DJI up 270 and 38), and sell signals for down days as Mar 4 and 6 (DJI down 133 and 102).

 

Key #2 is an equally easy observation for verification, and at times the reversal of the Key #1 direction.  This key is no longer a requirement because since the discovery of Key #3 traders who prefer to work with only the larger moves, averaging over 330 points, actually look forward to Key #1 being wrong!  This is because for Key #3 to have a job to do, Key #1 first has to be wrong for a day.  Now Key #3 steps in with the task of more than offsetting the Key #1 loss:  with a gain at least 3 times as large, and seldom less than 235 points, in usually 2 to 5 days.  Scan the table now, then return to study it later:  observe the entries under Key #3 and Gain.  Then look left to the DJI column:  when there's an entry in the Key #3 column, the DJI entry on the same row shows how much the one day loss for Key #1 turned out to be at the day's close.

 

Compare the Key #3 Gain to the DJI change in the "wrong" direction, and you'll see the revenge of Key #3 at work.  Using Key #1 and Key #3 as a team has produced winning signals 95% of the time, see the Combo column for the Win:Loss ratio.  If the Key #3 column is blank, the entry in the DJI column was a gain for Key #1.  The table which overflows to the next page, continues the record from #887 with daily data for close to 5 months.  Then your tutorial resumes, about this bonus tool.

View Table

 

 

How does Key #3 get its revenge?  It repeats the wrong-start signal from Key #1, starting within 3 days, and tries for a "triple".  Examples:  after a 65 point Key #1 loss on the 2/7 buy signal, Key #3 gained 395 points. After a 71 point Key #1 loss on the 3/5 sell signal, Key #3 took revenge with a 398 point gain.  If the Key #3 gain is less than 3 times the Key #1 loss, the Combo column nearly always penalizes Key #3 with a "loss" as on the 4/16 signal:  Key #3 gained 415, but this was less than 3 x 145, therefore the Combo column shows a loss.  Two exceptions, so as not to over penalize Key #3:  (1) If the gain is 500 points or more, it is an unconditional gain.  (2) If the Key #1 loss was 200 to 250, Key #3 has to make the loss good at least 2 to 1 rather than 3 to 1.  The table is completed from page 1 below, then your introduction continues.

View Table

 

 

"5 Minute" Tool:  Intraday and Two-Way Profits   Note that a modest end-of-day change can mask a move of  50 or more during the day.  The INDY column gives examples of maximum moves during the day, from previous close to actual best available exit for intraday traders:  May 1 sell signal, for instance, earned 26 pts if held to the close, but max intraday drop was a greater 140;  Jun 2 buy signal earned 48 if held to the close, but max intraday rise was 153.  For the two-way profit power of signals from Key #1, scan changes in the INDY column flagged by *:  each such change was a move supporting the Key #1 signal for a move during the day, which was reversed by the close.  Intraday exits produced profits, full day trades incurred losses.  Furthermore, these intraday gains for Key #1 were larger than the closing losses.  We counted these as wrong direction signals, so that Key #1 could pass along a "revenge" opportunity to Key #3.  Examples:  On 5/23 a 52 point down move, correctly predicted by a sell signal from Key #1, turned into a 7 point rise by the close.  On 4/11 a 117 point rise, correctly predicted by a buy signal from Key #1, gave way to a down closing of -18.  When a profit of  at least 50 was available on intraday exit, or the early supporting move exceeded the closing loss, the > (greater than) symbol before cumulative wins indicates that greater than that many wins (and fewer losses) rewarded intraday traders.  Win ratio for Key #1 rises to 781:133 from 585:329 after adjusting for intraday profits:  85% winners.

 

Key #3:  Entry and Exit Guidelines   We do not advise entry of Key #3 signals "at the market".  Our statistics from precedents suggest:  1. How many DJI points to subtract from a buy signal day's closing, or add to a sell signal day's closing, for initial entry.  2. How many points to subtract or add for occasional second entry.  3. How many to subtract or add for rare third entry.  Statistics also suggest profit goals, normally in excess of 3 times the Key #1 loss.  For both entry and exit, we use theoretical DJI readings as triggers.  Users with no access to these can observe the actual lows and assume theoretical buy levels available 30 points lower;  likewise, 30 points above actual highs, theoretical sell targets can be assumed hit.  We have worked with theoretical DJI highs and lows for 33+ years, as they truly reflect overbought and oversold extremes.

 

We are not revealing here the quantities of points to subtract or add, in using the entry and exit formulas.  We provide them together with the "5 Minute Tool" keys, if you choose this tool as a bonus with a subscription  or an option system purchase.  If you have already received the entry & exit guidelines through a prior order, continue to use them until we revise them by mail or Email.  If you have not yet given us an Email address to speed such updates, do so now with a brief request that includes your name, mailing address, phone number, and fax if any.  Email to sterlingop40@aol.com.

 

Major Risk Reviewed:  Should Bulls Rest Easy?   A rare warning pattern of "Two-Way" Signals (a regular Index Hotline topic) had been right 13 of 13 times since October 1999, when the pattern recurred abruptly on Apr 21 and May 1 this year.  Clearly, no win streak can last indefinitely.  Nevertheless we projected a 900 to 1100 point market fall:  a perfect record was suggesting it.  From 8173, which was then the recent low, we called for a rebound to 8533-8641, then a decline no less than 811 points, the smallest on record from 13 successful warnings.  The DJI did rebound, then hesitated near 8600 for about

3 weeks.  Then it suddenly took off again and crossed 9200 on June 6.  A shocker?  Not if you follow Magnetic Bands regularly.  Timely study in #893/894:  band #79 for a top, and bands #73 and #71 for most likely next bottom.  We do not expect warnings #14 and 15 to incur losses.  The DJI will return to near 8600, with a good chance for 8475.

 

Content that has been incorporated into the Op40 portion of our website and is not duplicated here.

 

 

System Support:  Answers to Users      Q:  "Op40" has just completed two more above average periods, and maybe it won't be such smooth going in the next two.  Should I use the "One Day Advantage" trading principle, to make trade outcomes more certain?   A:  Let's review the principle with excerpts from its charter invitation:  "Have you been frustrated by a habit of buying a little too high, or selling a little too soon, or too late?  It won't take you long to realize that the One Day Advantage principle may just be tailor made to help break such a habit:  Because the principle lets you wait an extra day before buying into a signal.  By then you'll know, unquestionably, what the best buy price has actually been. How to use this remarkable knowledge?  Unless the option has acted like a runaway rocket, what you'll be doing is buying the next day, using the "One Day Late" formulas."  Continuing:

 

Your "Marker" is The Secret   Your "marker" for the success of each trade is the best price at which you could have bought if acting on the signal without waiting an extra day.  That extra day is your day of advantage.  Let's look at the "One Day Late" formulas closer.  After the close of your day of advantage, you compute on your own or you get from one of our options hotlines a pair of momentum readings from the price action of the option that had given the signal.  The math is indeed simple:  compute the percent difference between two numbers.  The teamwork between your "marker" and the momentum readings decides how close to the marker, above or below, to place your buy order the next day.  At times the size of the Op40 "Trading Edge" is a factor.  The charter release of the principle advocates a straight 40% profit goal, nearly always achieved a single day later.

 

Put differently, the principle "coat tails" on Op40 signals.  If you use Op40 the standard way, you buy one day after a signal.  The principle lets you "sit out" this day, to observe how low you could have bought, then you buy near this already known price two days after the signal, nearly always beating the standard Op40 buy price.  After buying so advantageously, you'll find that your 40% gain will hardly ever miss.  The win ratio has been consistent near 90%.  We expect this to hold up even during below average performance periods for Op40.

 

Q:  How might I use both the standard Op40 rules and the advantage principle, together?   A: After your first day into a signal, use the "One Day Late" formulas of the principle for guidance on continuation:  you may exit early, or hold for more profit, or buy again lower and sell at the target of the  principle.

 

 

This completes your introduction to KVS/Stock Performer and "Op40".  We look forward to your joining us as a new user!  Thank you for choosing us.

 

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