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KVS (Key-Volume Strategies)

Short Term Market Services and Systems

1734 Brevard Highway   Suite 180

Hendersonville NC 28791

 

 

Dear Trading Enthusiast:



You have probably just browsed "Op40", one of the two most popular investment products of Key-Volume Strategies Inc (KVS).  We are in our 39th year of publication. We do not update our web site frequently because we are in daily contact with subscribers and system purchasers through telephone and email hotlines, thus our subscribers and system users are updated continuously.  Our web site serves the purpose of initial contact, so you know what we offer and how long we've been serving Wall Street.  We also publish the KVS Market Releases every 4 to 6 weeks, mainly for technical education and timing, and special features on systems and tools.  More about them below.

The other of our two most popular products is the just mentioned KVS Market Service which produces our Market Releases and special features. Projected market tops and bottoms are coordinated with the trading of index options.  After you finish this introductory letter and browse further, you'll see several full recent market releases, as well as excerpts from earlier releases thru the years, so you may get a seasoned feeling of confidence.  Once a month the second part of the release features an Op40 performance update, and Q & A for system users.

As you gradually become familiar with our work, you'll notice that through these many challenging and eventful years of market rises and declines, our main thrust has been technical innovation.  What we offer is exclusive to our subscribers and system users.  Options "40 In 4" which we nicknamed Op40 is a standalone product to trade SP100 (OEX) calls and puts regularly, with a remarkably small amount of daily attention.  The trading edge formula of Op40 does not even require a computer, and no option watching during the day is called for!

 

"Op40" has started its 13th year!  Because of this milestone event, the first release we're displaying below is #955, an early copy soon to be supplemented with an update on Magnetic Bands.  The table of these bands enables users to do their buying in the strongest support bands, and their selling in the strongest resistance bands. --- As you go through the Anniversary Q&A you'll find 4 special offers. They're presented in Q&A pair #11. Add 1 month to the offer of your choice as a bonus for ordering Op40, or an extension of your current KVS services, on the occasion of our anniversary.

 

PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS:

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       KVS  #957  FALL 2008:  1. AUTO TRADE THE KVS OPTION SYSTEM “DTE2008”:  DOWN MARKET TRADE AVERAGE +26%;  2. SHORT TERM MARKET CYCLES: NEW “BEAR PHASE” INEVITABLE;  3. “OP40” YEAR #13!

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We have completed our last DTE2008 performance task, to maintain a +25% or better trade average in an environment of “unpredictable” whipsaws. The task was to recognize unusually high risk of loss in advance, and bypass the responsible signals. Period #16 in the 10 month summary below (Oct 2007 into Aug 2008) presented no fewer than 5 real life test cases for the “inevitability” of loss. Indeed, actual trades incurred losses, but our Loss Bypass Screen, developed and back tested as part of this last task, ignored these signals and bypassed the losses. Retroactive application to periods before #16 would have enhanced returns further, but we felt that period #16 by itself sufficed as a proving ground.

 

Your first Bonus as an Auto Trader will be a detailed description of how “inevitable” loss can be recognized in advance, and side stepped.  In your auto trade account, recognizing and side stepping such a high risk profile will be evident from the absence of trade recommendations for certain days. Trade omission rationale will be amplified by educational footnotes. You won’t need to take any special action, the auto trade process will simply not allow certain signals to generate trades. But if you have one or more other trading accounts that you manage yourself: then knowing the Loss Bypass Screen may well become one of your most appreciated assets. --- Here is your 10 month DTE2008 snapshot: it was during this period that the Dow fell 20% (even increased it to 25%), and thereby issued a traditional Bear Market signal:

 

 

PERIOD SIGNAL RANGE  #OF SIG  Q%   R%  COMPOS CUMUL CUM SIGS CUM AVGE

====== ============= ======= ==== ==== ====== ===== ======== ========

   1   OCT 31-NOV 14    11   +265 +295  +280% + 280%    11    + 25%

   2   NOV 15-NOV 30    11   +139 +183  +161% + 441%    22    + 20%

   3   DEC  3-DEC 17    11   +297 +183  +240% + 681%    33    + 21%

   4   DEC 18-JAN  4    11   +241 +259  +250% + 931%    44    + 21%

   5   JAN  7-JAN 22    11   +397 +889  +643% +1574%    55    + 29%

   6   JAN 23-FEB  6    11   +551 +562  +556% +2130%    66    + 32%

   7   FEB  7-FEB 22    11   +153 +  6  + 80% +2210%    77    + 29%

   8   FEB 25-MAR 10    11   +310 +384  +347% +2557%    88    + 29%

   9   MAR 11-MAR 26    11   +331 +404  +368% +2925%    99    + 30%

  10   MAR 27-APR 16    11   +162 +625  +393% +3318%   110    + 30%

  11   APR 17-MAY  2    13   +224 +563  +394% +3712%   123    + 30%

  12   MAY  5-MAY 21    11   +168 + 84  +126% +3838%   134    + 29%

  13   MAY 22-JUN  6    12   + 96 +326  +211% +4049%   146    + 28%   

  14   JUN  9-JUN 24    11   +152 - 41  + 56% +4105%   157    + 26%

  15   JUN 25-JUL 14    11   +233 + 67  +150% +4255%   168    + 25%

  16   JUL 15-AUG  7    12   +187 +535  +361% +4616%   180    + 26%

 

The last entry in the record, in the three right columns, shows that the cumulative gain on 180 traded signals was +4616%. The average gain was +26%: 4616 divided by 180. If you trade index options systematically, with daily attention, this should not surprise you.  Anticipating your questions:   How long does a trade last? One to 4 sessions. How does KVS get a signal? By analyzing price patterns and market movements daily, using original KVS formulas. How does KVS share the signal with its system users? By email near 10PM ET. The email advises, for next day: specific option; specific buy price; specific sell price. If the option is still held at the end of the next day: that night's email advises a new sell price, or stays with the previous.

 

Which index and expiration month does KVS use? All signals are for specific SP100 ("OEX") options, expiring in the current month, unless the time left is less than 2 weeks; in that case the following month is picked. "Can I substitute a different index, if I think it will do better?" SP100 price action correlates well with the price action of other indices. If KVS recommends a call, you buy a call as well, on your chosen index.  If KVS recommends a put, you buy a put as well, on your chosen index. Track KVS results, and your own, for a few days. Be satisfied that you're getting comparable gains. Typically: 

 

The KVS option choice achieves +30% to +40% on a winning trade. Losses are no more than 4 out of 11. Average loss is less than  average gain. These results should be what you get from your chosen index as well, as a minimum. If your choice under performs the KVS choice more often than not: raise or lower your strike price, till your performance is on par. Or simply trade the exact options KVS chooses: any stock broker can buy and sell OEX options, and no margin is needed. Starting capital of $3000 to $5000 is common.

 

Why does KVS measure its system performance in groups of 11 to 13 signals? It takes 2 weeks, sometimes an extra day or two, to get 11 trading signals. Summarizing results for 2 weeks at a time enables frequent performance comparisons, reflecting the system's ability to be consistently profitable, ranging from highly profitable as periods 5 & 6, to modestly or marginally profitable as periods 7 & 14.

 

What do the headings mean for the 5 columns that track the percent achieved?  Q% = Quick Exits. These were sales within 5 sessions (commonly within 3) at predetermined prices. R% = Relaxed Exits. Slower sales, typically 1 day past quick exits, at the opening. Composite = Q% and R% averaged. This is the key performance measure. Cumulative = Composite results cumulated.  Cum Avge = Cumulative Average. Composite results divided by cumulated signals.

 

Do the results for 10 months suggest a trend?  Yes. Note in the last column that the average exceeded +29% for 4 periods (#6, 9, 10, 11), then eased down into the 20's, ending on an up tick with the current +26%. Since DTE2008 was designed to do particularly well in a recessionary or "Bear Market" environment, the fact that results have moved beyond their peaks indicates that the strong hold of the bear has been weakening. If you prefer to trade call options to puts, to benefit from a rising market and improving economy, you'll find that the daily signal mix will gradually shift more and more to favor call options, and puts will return to their traditional role of capitalizing on downside reactions.

 

 

Time to favor a veteran "all weather" system like Op40 again, in its 13th year?  We welcome new and renewing users to either system. After the Short Term Market Cycles update, you’ll find several pages on “Op40”, the “do it yourself” trader’s option system.

Should you prefer that a broker familiar with KVS trade a system for you: choose DTE2008 because it is a specific entry & exit vehicle, thus especially suitable for Auto Trading.  For details: send an email to kvshotlines@aol.com. Include your phone number, and say you're interested in trading DTE2008. We'll respond with the contact information, email and phone, for our Auto Trade broker. You make your own contact for account setup, and information on rebates based on trading frequency, to reduce or eliminate your cost.  These are pre-requisites, so that KVS may provide the daily trading advice to the broker:

You need to be a current or new KVS/DTE2008 subscriber. Choose from the special offers below. The $544 offer for 6 months includes a $155 administrative fee. If you’re a current subscriber, with 6 or more months KVS/DTE2008 service left, then you can start with the $155 administrative fee as your only expense. These fees are exclusively for KVS, as provider of the daily advice by email. Same advice is provided to our Auto Trade broker, the night before each trading day, and to individual subscribers who do not Auto Trade.

After you have your response from our Auto Trade broker:  Decide whether you wish an Auto Trade arrangement, and before your trading account is set up, take care of your KVS subscription or administrative fee by email:  kvshotlines@aol.com. For those who also wish to phone, our System Support number has 24 hour voice mail: 877-350-3796.

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** What are the current special offers for Op40 and DTE2008,  separately or together?   If you are not a KVS system or email hotline user yet: DTE2008 is $544 with 6 months nightly email. KVS Market Timing, with Dow (DJI) targets in both directions, updated daily, is a separate extra feature provided at no charge.  Op40 is $545 with 4 months nightly email. Longer term Op40 offers are not available because of quota. You're welcome to both the $544 and $545 offers as a combo, with an 11% discount. Extra bonus with the combo: 2 more months of Op40 email, so you'll have the same duration for the nightly email of both systems. Cost of this 6 month package: $969. Review above whether you’re eligible for the $155 fee only.

 

How to Order:  Your choice of email to kvshotlines@aol.com or phone order: 877-350-3796 or 800-334-0411 x12D. Use Visa, Master Card or American Express. Prefer to mail a check? Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E Lincoln Ave , White Plains NY 10604 . Early response gets an unadvertised bonus. Thank you for choosing KVS systems and services, our 39th year.

** Introduction to KVS features, with Q&A:  If you clicked on the Auto Trade link on the KVS web site to get here, this took you on a shortcut past informative text which we recommend that you read now, by scrolling back to the beginning of "KVS #957 Fall 2008".

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How to Order:  Your choice of email to kvshotlines@aol.com or phone order: 877-350-3796 or 800-334-0411 x12D. Use Visa, Master Card or American Express. Prefer to mail a check? Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E Lincoln Ave , White Plains NY 10604 . Early response gets an unadvertised bonus. Thank you for choosing KVS systems and services, our 39th year.

 

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Short Term Market Cycles: New “Bear Phase” Coming; Profits Taken on Previous Recovery

 

These cycles were discovered by KVS in early 2007. They are tracked on the nightly KVS Market Hotline: a second nightly email for DTE2008 subscribers and Auto Traders. This is a bonus in addition to the Loss Bypass Screen.

 

Each short term market cycle consists of three phases:  1. Bear Phase,  2. Turnaround Phase,  3. Recovery Phase.  Next on the agenda is a new Bear Phase. It will be signaled by a 240 point or larger down closing by the Dow (DJI). Might you have to wait quite a while for that?  Not likely. The average interval between Bear Phase signals has been 22 calendar days, and the last such signal occurred on July 28. What came next? The Turnaround Phase followed unusually quickly, the next day. Its entry formula suggested buying at DJI 11265. This was accomplished on August 1, and the Recovery Phase was in force. Its profit taking formula targeted 11681 for a gain of +416 points. Profits are normally in the 400 to 600 points range.

 

On Aug 6 the profit materialized, and an extended recovery followed. We needed to use other KVS market tools to project a goal above 11681. The KVS Market Hotline uses several such tools regularly. It announced that based on our special work with Big 1 Day Changes (DJI 90 points or more at the close),  a further rise into the 11932-11947 range is justified. On Aug 11 this range was reached, with a theoretical high of 11934. Theoretical highs and lows on the Dow are more accurate measures of overbought and oversold extremes than the actual numbers that you see on computer and TV screens all day. Theoretical numbers become available shortly after the close. We get them from the CBOE, which is also our source for option prices.

 

Just two sessions past the 11934 high, the DJI was already back down to 11377, a substantial 557 points. This swift drop was punctuated by single day down closings of -140 and -110 points. That was a total of -250. Are we in a new Bear Phase? No, we did not get a single day down closing of -240 or more negative. So the wait continues. Meanwhile the KVS Market Hotline keeps its users well supplied with market targets in both directions. And for option traders, DTE2008 and Op40 leave little room for inactivity. The balance of this report focuses on Options “40 In 4” (Op40), including a 13th anniversary Q&A

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 13TH YEAR CONTINUES - LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

OPTION BUYER’S ADVANTAGE: ANY KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!

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Already in its 13th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-117   1605    1269:336    +54540%        + 34%    1363.5

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

  150      12       8: 4      + 260%        + 22%       6.5

  151      13      12: 1      + 680%        + 52%      17.0

  152      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  153      14      11: 3      + 500%        + 36%      12.5

  154      14      11: 3      + 420%        + 30%      10.5

  155      13      11: 2      + 560%        + 43%      14.0

  156      13       9: 4      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  157      13       8: 5      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  158      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  159      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  160      12       8: 4      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  161      15      13: 2      + 680%        + 45%      17.0

  162      12       8: 4      + 160%        + 13%       4.0

  163      13      10: 3      + 400%        + 31%      10.0

  164      15      10: 5      + 260%        + 17%       6.5

  165       9       6: 3      + 300%        + 33%       7.5

  166      15      13: 2      + 680%        + 45%      17.0

  167      11       9: 2      + 420%        + 38%      10.5

 ALL 167 2298    1792:506    +75960%        + 33%    1899.0

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The 78% win ratio (1792 gains/2298 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (75960/2298) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next pages:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 

KVS #957,”Op40” periods #162-168

 

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

JAN31     1    FEB665C    7    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 1.0   2.70  3.80

FEB 1+    2      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -65   ..  ..  - 1.5  - 0.5   2.07  0.65

    4     3    FEB660C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -65   ..  ..  - 1.5  - 2.0   0.90  0.30

    5     4    MAR530P    7    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  - 1.0   2.55  4.00

    6+    5      “”      10   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  - 0.5   3.17  3.80

    7     6      “”       6   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5    0.0   2.77  3.30

    8            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   11            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   12     7    MAR670C    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -3   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 0.5   2.42  2.35

   13+    8      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   -6   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 1.0   2.50  2.35

   14     9      “”       7    ..  +50   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0    0.0   1.57  2.35

   15            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   19            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   20    10    MAR660C    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 1.0   2.25  3.30

   21    11    MAR560P    6    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.0   2.20  3.10

   22            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.0

   25    12    MAR660C    8    ..   ..   ..  +85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0

***   PERIOD 162:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 4.0

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER” (more below)

               

FEB26     1    MAR660C    9    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.5   2.10  3.40

   27+    2      “”      10    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.5   1.89  2.70

   28            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5

   29     3    MAR565P    8    ..   ..   ..  +90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.5  + 4.5   2.15  4.10

MAR 3     4      “”       3    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   2.05  4.10

    4           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5

    5            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5

    6     5    MAR565P    6    ..   ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 7.5   2.47  3.90

    7     6      “”       6    ..   ..  +50   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 8.5   2.55  3.90

   10     7    APR510P   10    ..   ..   ..  +80   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +10.5   1.48  2.70

   11     8    APR660C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..  +12   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.5   1.97  2.20

   12            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.5

   13+    9    APR660C    5    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +12.0   1.33  2.20

   14    10    APR510P    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -70  - 1.5  +10.5   3.00  0.80

   17    11      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  + 9.0   1.27  0.40

   18    12    APR550P    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.0   2.25  4.70

   19    13    APR530P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -55  ..  - 1.0  +10.0   1.75  0.75

   20            (C)      6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.0  [2.50] ....

        ***   PERIOD 163:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………        +10.0

 

MAR24     1    APR660C    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -60  - 1.5  - 1.5   2.25  0.80

   25            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 1.5

   26     2    APR570P    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  - 0.5   2.35  3.40

   27     3      “”       5    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 0.5   2.30  3.40

   28+    4      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  - 1.0   2.45  0.80

   31     5      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -45  ..  - 1.0  - 2.0   1.00  0.55

APR 1     6    APR655C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..  +18   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 2.0   2.45  2.90

    2+    7      “”       4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  - 1.0   1.97  2.90

    3     8      “”       7    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 0.5   1.55  2.50

    4            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

    7            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

    8            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 0.5

    9     9    MAY570P    4    ..   ..   ..  +90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.5   2.53  4.90

   10            (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5

   11    10    MAY550P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  + 1.0   2.28  0.80

   14    11      “”       6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0    0.0   1.07  0.50

   15           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   16    12    MAY655C    2    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   2.32  6.40

   17+   13      “”       6    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 3.0   4.60  6.40

   18+   14    MAY665C    7    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.5   1.92  3.10

   21    15      “”       4    ..   ..   ..  +95   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   1.58  3.10

***   PERIOD 164:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 6.5

 

Companion System to “Op40”: “9 to 1 EdgeFinder”:  While the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (called “9 to 1” for short) has its own trading rules and can be traded as an independent system, it gives relatively few signals, and is most suitable as an enhancer for Op40. When both systems give a trading signal for the same option, consider investing a larger amount than you’d commit typically.  Signals flagged by + (plus sign) qualified for this technique in the 3 periods above, and more on the next pages. In total, the last 6 of 7 performance periods are final, and the 7th (#168) is previewed, incomplete as we write this.

 

Total “RPS” points for the flagged signals were 8.5, counting Op40 signals alone. Committing 1.5 times the usual capital, to utilize Op40 and “9 to 1” teamwork, increased RPS points to 13.0. Each RPS point represents a 40% to 59% gain. Counting the minimum 40%:  Total Op40 percent result for the flagged signals was +340%. Total from Op40/9 to 1 teamwork for the same signals was +520%.

 

The previous page gives long term results and includes a special offer for the two-system combo. Notice that the difference is modest: $545 for Op40 with 3 months nightly email hotline (comes by 8:30PM ET before each trading day), and $675 including the “9 to 1 Edge Finder” with its own email hotline the same days. The remaining two pages, which complete Rel #957, include additional insights into “9 to 1”, see Q9 of the “Anniversary Q&A”.

KVS #957 continued

 

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

APR22+           (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

   23+    1    MAY665C    3                 +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   1.62  3.10

   24     2      “”       3    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0   2.02  4.70

   25     3      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.0   2.03  4.70

   28     4      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 8.0   1.57  4.70

   29+           (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 8.0

   30+    5    MAY605P    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  ..  - 1.0  + 7.0   1.07  0.60

MAY 1            (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

    2+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

    5+    6    JUN590P    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 8.0   2.57  3.80

    6     7    JUN690C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -16   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 7.5   0.89  0.75

    7     8    JUN590P    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -19   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 7.0   3.20  2.60

    8            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0  [3.20]

    9+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   12+           (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   13           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   14            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

   15     9    JUN675C    6   +30   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 7.5   2.75  3.60

   16           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

***   PERIOD 165:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER” (more below)

               

MAY19     1    JUN675C    3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0  - 1.0   0.91  0.45

   20     2    JUN605P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 1.0   2.30  5.00

   21     3    JUN595P    7    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.0   2.25  3.50

   22+    4      “”       4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 3.0   2.42  3.50

   23     5      “”       7    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 6   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.0   2.35  2.50

   27     6    JUN660C    6    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.5   1.52  2.60

   28     7      “”       4    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 6.0

   29     8      “”       9    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -35   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 5.5   1.97  1.20

   30            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5

JUN 2     9    JUN600P    5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.5   1.67  5.20

    3+   10      “”       7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 9.5   2.35  5.20

    4    11      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.5   1.52  5.60

    5    12    JUN615P    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +13.5   3.05 10.30

    6    13    JUN590P    4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +15.0   2.07  3.30

    9            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +15.0

   10+           (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +15.0

   11    14    JUL550P    4   +25   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  +15.5   2.75  3.45

   12    15      “”       6    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +17.0   1.87  3.00

   13            (9)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +17.0

        ***   PERIOD 166: RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +17.0

 

JUN16     1    JUL650C    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -65  - 1.5  - 1.5   1.77  0.60

   17     2    JUL555P    4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5    0.0   2.13  3.50

   18     3      “”       8    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.5   2.07  3.50

   19     4      “”       4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 3.0   2.77  4.50

   20     5      “”       6    ..   ..  +75   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.5   2.55  4.50

   23            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.5

   24            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.5

   25     6    JUL625C    5    ..   ..   ..   ..  - 8   ..   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 4.0   0.60  0.55

   26     7    JUL540P    6    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 5.0   1.87  2.55

   27            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0

   30            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0

JUL 1     8    JUL610C    6   +35   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 5.5   0.95  1.50

    2     9    JUL540P    6    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 7.0   1.60  2.55

    3            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0

    7    10    AUG500P    3    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 8.5   1.47  2.40

    8            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 8.5

    9    11    AUG510P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +10.5   2.75  6.50

   10            (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +10.5

 ***  PERIOD 167: RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………          +10.5

 

 

Preview of Period #168, into August:   Our next report will begin with period #168 and end with #170. Meanwhile, the bulk of period #168 is already behind us, so we can  give you preliminary statistics now.

 

When period #168 is finished, we expect its results to be very close to this:

 

Number of signals = 16 or 17.  Winning signals = 10 or 11.  Total RPS = 9 to 11.  Total % achieved = +380 to +440.  To learn more about “RPS”, review Q4 thru Q6 and their answers, in the Anniversary Q&A on the final page of Rel #957.

 

Long term win ratio will remain 78%.  Long term average per trade will remain +33%.  Thank you for choosing KVS products.

 

ANNIVERSARY Q&A:  “OP40” IN  ITS 13TH YEAR!   (KVS Release #957 concludes with this page)

 

Q1: What determines the option choice?  A1: “TE” the Trading Edge. It does double duty. The same time it tells you whether the signaled direction favors a call or a put, it names exactly which call or put. KVS knows from many years of experience that SP100 (OEX) options, that last closed in the 1.50-3.50 range, and expire in the current month with at least 2 weeks left to expiration, are the best candidates for 1 to 4 day trades for 40% profit or more.

 

Q2: Can you go a little further into computing “TE” ? What data does the formula need?  A2: Two options in the price range just mentioned, a call and a put, are handed over every evening to the “TE” formula, for a few price comparisons. Only the day’s open, high, low, and closing prices are used. Percent differences, between certain prices in this “data base” of only 8 prices, are converted by the formula into values normally in the 0 to 10 range. Values are summed separately for the call and the put. The option with the higher sum has the edge. In case of a tie: TE = 0 and there’s no trading signal for next day.

 

 Q3: If I’d rather not compute the TE myself, can I get it already computed, from the hotline?  A3: Yes, you can.  The most liked feature of the hotline, your choice of voice or Email, is that it gives you already determined values and decisions.

 

Q4: The Performance columns, on the signal summary pages, show two values. Do these numbers evaluate the performance of each signal? Are they like a “report card” for the system?  A4: A good name! The left number is the grade that Op40 gets for handling the signal, profitably or not. We call this grade “RPS” (Rated Performance Score): it rates Op40 performance with a   score. The right number “CUMUL” cumulates the individual scores for a full performance period, commonly 4 weeks.

 

Q5: Can you give an example or two for the scoring? A5: For every 20% the option rises, RPS =0.5. For a 40% rise, on up to 59%, RPS = 1. For a 60% rise, on up to 79%, RPS = 1.5. For an 80% or larger rise, RPS = 2. With RPS values included, the signal tracking format not only shows the price advances (and occasional declines), but a  report card  for Op40 as well.

 

Q6: Where do you measure the price rises from?  A6: From the average buy price for the given signal. It is the mid point between the next day’s opening, which is your first opportunity to act, and the day’s low, the best available price.

 

Q7: If I recall right from previous Op40 descriptions: you chose the full name “Options 40 In 4” because the system objective is a 40% or larger gain within 4 sessions?  A7: Yes, exactly. Relatively few gains turn out to be less than 40%, and there’s an occasional loss. Per trade average over the long run has been +33%, see the summary for 168 periods on previous pages.

 

Q8: I see a percent size breakout of the results. Why not show it all in one column?  A8: Most system users like to see how the small, medium, and large returns are distributed, for an easy scan of relative frequency. The “RPS” numbers are all in a single column: multiply by 40, and that’s the percent Op40 gets credit for, not to exceed 80%. That’s the practical limit, because traders seldom try for more, with such quick turnaround, 4 days or less.  We do show rises up to 100%, but RPS =2 is max.

 

Q9: The record shows Op40 doing quite well, and for a long time now. Why use a second system to enhance Op40? A9: The  “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (short name “9 to 1”) started in 2000. It uses the same options as Op40 in its signal logic and buy/sell formulas, but with different emphasis: accept fewer signals, but each with a 90% probability of profit within 3 sessions. Teamwork has been beneficial for both systems, here’s an excerpt from previous summaries for the 5 ways it has worked:

 

There have been 5 ways for teamwork to enhance results:   1. Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but “9 to 1” traded. 2. Op40 had a signal in one direction, “9 to 1” had one in the other direction. To assure sufficient volatility for profit in both directions: “9 to 1” checks how high TE is, and if it’s 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own signal.  3. “9 to 1” bought twice.  4. Op40 loss prevented or offset by“9 to 1”. 5. Both systems chose the same option, suggesting higher $ commitment.

 

Q10: I misplaced the 1996 charter offer. Am I still entitled to it to get your lowest rate?  A10: We’re celebrating the 39th year for KVS (Key-Volume Strategies) and 13th year for Op40. You’re welcome to the 1996 charter offer, restored for 15 days. Review the Op40 introduction, which includes the charter offer, on our web site: www.key-volume.com.

 

Q11: How do I get started?  A11: Each offer includes system instructions, step by step: choosing your option, buying your option, selling your option. You also get nightly hotline for 3 months, your choice of voice or email. Order with credit card for fastest start (Visa, Master Card, American Express), or mail a check. Specify A or B, or if you already have Op40: C or D.

 

Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling 800-334-0411 x12K. We’ll be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E. Lincoln Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Thank you for choosing KVS!  We’re proud of  39  years of systems and services.  

 

Offer “A”: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call “the hotline”, total $545.

Offer “B”: Op40 and “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (“9 to 1”) with 3 months nightly email hotline for both, total $675.

Offer “C”:  If you already have the Op40 system: “9 to 1” system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.

Offer “D”: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems (extension or renewal) $265.

 

Anniversary Bonus!  Add 1 month to the offer of your choice. To assure this bonus, do order within 10 days . Thank you!


KVS #955 review

*********************************************************************

"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 13TH YEAR BEGINS -  LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

OPTION BUYER’S ADVANTAGE: ANY KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!

*********************************************************************

 

Already in its 13th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-109   1517    1205:312    +52340%        + 34%    1308.5

  110      11       9: 2      + 440%        + 40%      11.0

  111      10       8: 2      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  112      10       6: 4      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  113      10       8: 2      + 180%        + 18%       4.5

  114      11       9: 2      + 360%        + 33%       9.0

  115      16      10: 6      + 180%        + 11%       4.5

  116       8       7: 1      + 240%        + 30%       6.0

  117      12       7: 5      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

  150      12       8: 4      + 260%        + 22%       6.5

  151      13      12: 1      + 680%        + 52%      17.0

  152      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  153      14      11: 3      + 500%        + 36%      12.5

  154      14      11: 3      + 420%        + 30%      10.5

  155      13      11: 2      + 560%        + 43%      14.0

  156      13       9: 4      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  157      13       8: 5      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  158      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

 ALL 158 2182    1705:477    +72460%        + 33%    1811.5

 

The 78% win ratio (1705 gains/2182 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (72460/2182) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Anniversary Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

AUG14     1    SEP560P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 2.0   2.10  6.30

   15     2      “”       5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -22   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 1.5   3.35  2.60

   16     3      “”       4    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 3.0   1.60  2.60

   17            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.0            

   20+    4    SEP715C    4   +37   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 3.5   1.82  2.50

   21+    5      “”       2   +33   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 4.0   1.88  2.50

   22+    6      “”       4   +22   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 4.5   1.76  2.15

   23+    7    SEP610P    5    ..   ..   ..  +90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 6.5   1.75  3.40

   24     8    SEP715C    7    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 7.5   1.92  2.80

   27            (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5            

   28     9    SEP600P    8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -60  - 1.5  + 6.0   1.75  0.70

   29    10    SEP625P    4   +20   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 6.5   2.65  3.20

   30           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5            

   31+           (C)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.5            

SEP 4    11    SEP715C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -45  ..  - 1.0  + 5.5   1.92  1.00

    5            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5   1.93  2.30

    6           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5

    7          OCT560P    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.5

   10    12      “”       2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -33   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 5.0   1.35  0.90

   11    13    OCT730C    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.0   2.60  5.50

***   PERIOD 156:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.0

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +10.5

               

SEP12     1    OCT730C   10    ..   ..  +60   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 1.5   3.40  5.50

   13+    2      “”      10    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.5   3.23  7.60

   14+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.5

   17+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.5            

   18+    3    OCT740C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -39   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 3.0   3.12  1.90

   19     4      “”       8    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  ..  - 1.0  + 2.0   2.35  1.35

   20     5      “”       4   +36   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 2.5   2.02  2.75

   21           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5

   24     6    OCT660P    7    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -40  ..  - 1.0  + 1.5   2.42  1.40

   25+    7      “”       6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -31   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 1.0   1.45  1.00

   26+           (C)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 1.0            

   27+    8    OCT735C    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.0   1.95  4.30

   28+           (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.0

OCT 1     9    OCT740C    6    ..  +40   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 4.0   1.53  2.15

    2            (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.0            

    3+   10    OCT690P    3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -38   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 3.5   1.29  0.80

    4+   11    OCT735C    4    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 4.5   2.92  4.30

    5    12      “”       8    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 6.0   2.55  4.30

    8+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 6.0            

    9    13    NOV760C    7    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 7.5   1.73  2.90

   10           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5            

***   PERIOD 157:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +20.5

 

OCT11            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0             

   12     1    NOV760C    2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -50  ..  - 1.0  - 1.0   1.20  0.60

   15     2    NOV660P    7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 1.0   2.57  5.20

   16+    3      “”       5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 3.0   1.95  5.20

   17+    4      “”       3    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 5.0   2.10  5.20

   18+           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0             

   19+    5    NOV635P    5    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 5   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 5.0   2.37  2.50

   22     6      “”       4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.0   1.23  2.50

   23            (C)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0            

   24            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.0            

   25+    7    NOV735C    5    ..   ..   .. + 85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 9.0   2.75  5.20

   26+    8    NOV740C    6    ..   ..   ..   ..  +15   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 9.0   2.60  3.00

   29+    9      “”       7   +28   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 9.5   2.35  3.00

   30    10    NOV675C    4    ..   ..   .. + 90   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.5   1.42  2.70

   31    11    NOV740C    5    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -70  ..  - 1.5  +10.0   0.87  0.25

NOV 1    12    NOV660P    7    ..   ..  +65   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  +11.5   2.00  3.30

    2+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +11.5            

    5            (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +11.5            

    6    13    DEC750C    6    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  +12.5   1.72  2.55            

    7            (P)      4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +12.5            

    8    14    DEC580P    1    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  +13.5   2.75  4.00

***   PERIOD 158:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +13.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +24.5

 

 

Anniversary Q & A   Q1: In all your record updates you stress that “Op40” has been the most popular KVS option system, since it started in 1996. What accounts for this?  A1: The main reason has been the accuracy of the plain math that gives you the Trading Edge (“TE”) every day. Scan the TRDG EDGE column of the record (the 4th column above).  If TE=0, there’s no signal to trade. If TE=5 or above (seldom higher than 10), you trade the current option choice (to the left of TE). If TE is in the 1 to 4 range, additional logic determines whether to trade or not.  Q2: What determines the option choice?  A2: See next page.

 

ANNIVERSARY Q&A:  “OP40” STARTS ITS 13TH YEAR!  (Continued from previous page)

 

Q2: What determines the option choice?  A2: “TE” the Trading Edge. It does double duty. The same time it tells you whether the signaled direction favors a call or a put, it names exactly which call or put. KVS knows from many years of experience that SP100 (OEX) options, that last closed in the 1.50-3.50 range, and expire in the current month with at least 2 weeks left to expiration, are the best candidates for 1 to 4 day trades for 40% profit or more.

 

Q3: Can you go a little further into computing “TE” ? What data does the formula need?  A3: Two options in the price range just mentioned, a call and a put, are handed over every evening to the “TE” formula, for a few price comparisons. Only the day’s open, high, low, and closing prices are used. Percent differences, between certain prices in this “data base” of only 8 prices, are converted by the formula into values normally in the 0 to 10 range. Values are summed separately for the call and the put. The option with the higher sum has the edge. In case of a tie: TE = 0 and there’s no trading signal for next day.

 

 Q4: If I’d rather not compute the TE myself, can I get it already computed, from the hotline?  A4: Yes, you can.  The most liked feature of the hotline, your choice of voice or Email, is that it gives you already determined values and decisions.

 

Q5: The Performance columns, on the signal summary pages, show two values. Do these numbers evaluate the performance of each signal? Are they like a “report card” for the system?  A5: A good name! The left number is the grade that Op40 gets for handling the signal, profitably or not. We call this grade “RPS” (Rated Performance Score): it rates Op40 performance with a   score. The right number “CUMUL” cumulates the individual scores for a full performance period, commonly 4 weeks.

 

Q6: Can you give an example or two for the scoring? A6: For every 20% the option rises, RPS =0.5. For a 40% rise, on up to 59%, RPS = 1. For a 60% rise, on up to 79%, RPS = 1.5. For an 80% or larger rise, RPS = 2. With RPS values included, the signal tracking format not only shows the price advances (and occasional declines), but a  report card  for Op40 as well.

 

Q7: Where do you measure the price rises from?  A7: From the average buy price for the given signal. It is the mid point between the next day’s opening, which is your first opportunity to act, and the day’s low, the best available price.

 

Q8: If I recall right from previous Op40 descriptions: you chose the full name “Options 40 In 4” because the system objective is a 40% or larger gain within 4 sessions?  A8: Yes, exactly. Relatively few gains turn out to be less than 40%, and there’s an occasional loss. Per trade average over the long run has been +33%, see the summary for 158 periods on a previous page.

 

Q9: I see a percent size breakout of the results. Why not show it all in one column?  A9: Most system users like to see how the small, medium, and large returns are distributed, for an easy scan of relative frequency. The “RPS” numbers are all in a single column: multiply by 40, and that’s the percent Op40 gets credit for, not to exceed 80%. That’s the practical limit, because traders seldom try for more, with such quick turnaround, 4 days or less.  We do show rises up to 100%, but RPS =2 is max.

 

Q10: The record shows Op40 doing quite well, and for a long time now. Why use a second system to enhance Op40? A10: The “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (short name “9 to 1”) started in 2000. It uses the same options as Op40 in its signal logic and buy/sell formulas, but with different emphasis: accept fewer signals, but each with a 90% probability of profit within 3 sessions. Teamwork has been beneficial for both systems, here’s an excerpt from previous summaries for the 5 ways it has worked:

 

There have been 5 ways for teamwork to enhance results:   1. Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but “9 to 1” traded. 2. Op40 had a signal in one direction, “9 to 1” had one in the other direction. To assure sufficient volatility for profit in both directions: “9 to 1” checks how high TE is, and if it’s 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own signal.  3. “9 to 1” bought twice.  4. Op40 loss prevented or offset by“9 to 1”. 5. Both systems chose the same option, suggesting higher $ commitment.

 

Q11: I misplaced the 1996 charter offer. Am I still entitled to it to get your lowest rate?  A11: We’re celebrating the start of the 39th year for KVS (Key-Volume Strategies) and 13th year for Op40. You’re welcome to the 1996 charter offer, restored for 15 days. Review the Op40 introduction, which includes the charter offer, on our web site: www.key-volume.com.

 

Q12: How do I get started?  A12: Each offer includes system instructions, step by step: choosing your option, buying your option, selling your option. You also get nightly hotline for 3 months, your choice of voice or email. Order with credit card for fastest start (Visa, Master Card, American Express), or mail a check. Specify A, B, C, or if you already have Op40: C or D.

 

Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling 800-334-0411 x12K. We’ll be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E. Lincoln Ave, White Plains NY 10604. Thank you for choosing KVS!  We’re proud of  39  years of systems and services.  

 

Offer “A”: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call “the hotline” (shorter version available by phone) total $545.

Offer “B”: Op40 and “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (“9 to 1”) with 3 months nightly email hotline for both, total $675.

Offer “C”:  If you already have the Op40 system: “9 to 1” system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.

Offer “D”: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems (extension or renewal) $265.

 

Anniversary Bonus!  Add 1 month to the offer of your choice. To assure this bonus, do order by Nov 30. Thank you.

 

Our other timing and trading products are taught in our releases and special supplements, with hotlines to keep you current.  Here's a preview, you are welcome to the keys to any named tool, one per 6 subscription months, for only a $70 surcharge per tool.  Your subscription term choices are:   6, 12 or 18 months.  With the 18 month term you're welcome to an extra tool, your choice, as a bonus, without surcharge.  See rates further down.

 

"One Day Advantage" Trading Principle "ODA":  Recent innovation, first available in 2002, allows you to trade Op40 signals with a one day delay, taking advantage of the fact that the best buy price is already known.

 

"MRM":  Major Risk Measurement Gauge:  Byproduct of Op40, in use since 1998, gives 1 or 2 signals in most months, to trade specific index puts with a 100% or larger profit potential.  Nearly 90% of signals have been profitable.

 

"5 Minute" Tool:  Just 5 minutes into any trading day you can make a quick test on the DJI to learn:  will this be an up day or a down day?  Minimum intraday gain is typically 70 points when the tool is correct.  When the tool is wrong, a second rule tells you how to make up the loss in a ratio of at least 3 to 1, example:  if you lost 100 points, you gain 300 or more.  The combined accuracy of the 1 day indication and the "make good 3 to 1" rule has been over 90% since 1999.

 

Two-Way Signals:  Frequent signals, in use since 1991, confirm that natural volatility is present, and traders have the odds in their favor to profit in either direction or both.  Absence of Two-Way signals in 5 or more consecutive sessions constitutes a major downside alert, for normally a 400 to 600 point DJI fall, with an occasional even larger one of  800 to 1000 points.  Since we discovered this major warning feature in 1999, there have been an average of 5 such signals a year.

 

"9 to 1" Edge Finder:  Discovered in 2000, this tool has the prime role to enhance returns from any option system.  A signal occurs only when there is a 90% (9 to 1) probability for a quick profit of up to 60% in 1 or 2 days.  Nearly 9 in 10 signals have indeed been accurate.  The tool can also be used as a standalone index option trading system, but signals are relatively infrequent, sometimes only 6 to 8 in a month.

 

Big One Day Changes:  Since 1998 we have used a set of simple rules for treating every 90 point or larger DJI closing change (up or down) as a signal for a move of about 600 points.  Some big up days are buy signals, others are sell signals.  Likewise, some big down days are buy signals, others are sell signals.  The trading logic decides direction, entry, and exit.

 

Natural Volatility Products:  NV1 (formulas) or NV2 (full system).   We discovered the underlying logic near the end of 2002.  Learn how to measure volatility and profitability by easy math, using only a day's prices for a given index option.  Catch trading signals for options several times a month for 60% gains within 3 days.  Use specific rules for adjusting your original exit goal when the gain does not come quickly enough.  NV signals have been profitable slightly over 80% of the time.

"SPP":  Sell Price Predictor:  Before you accept a loss on any index option which you bought thru any source, consult the Rebound Profiles of SPP,  introduced in August 2004.  The profiles tell you clearly whether to accept a loss, or if not:  how many more days to hold for, and for what size rebound.  The surcharge for SPP is $175, rather than the $70 that applies to other methods.
 

Other investment aids, which you learn automatically through a subscription to the KVS releases include: Key-Dates for market turns;  Magnetic Bands for support and resistance;  and the Key-Volume concept for stock trading. 

 

HOW TO ORDER   The one-time fee for Options "40 In 4" is $675, but you can save through the Anniversary Special fee of only $545.  You may even be eligible for the super saver charter rate from 1996, mentioned in the 15 day time limit offer you've browsed up front.  Higher rates of $495 to $545 include two months hotline by voice ($495) or email ($545), the choice is yours.  The highest fee of $675 includes "ODA" (described above) plus 3 months hotline, voice or email.  If you wish to renew the hotline later, rates start at $135 for 3 months.  Use the hotline as your data source, learning aid, or shortcut.

 

KVS  subscriptions bring you 14 to 20 features a year on systems, tools and techniques, numbered as "releases" (plus educational back issues) and four email or recorded updates (your choice) per week, two on market timing and stocks and two on the large potential (100%+) option trading outlook.  Special rates for web site browsers are $279 for 6 months, $449 for a full year, or $579 for 18 months.  Bonus and surcharge choices were described above.  If you already have all the listed  tools from an earlier subscription, you're welcome to one of the following as a bonus with a 1 year or 18 month order: 2008 Stock Trader's Almanac, hardcover 180+ pages, focusing on seasonal opportunities and dangers, with daily calendar timing help and a variety of record keeping forms;  and/or Extra Hotline Time, 1 month.  Email address for our System Support staff:  kvshotlines@aol.com


Call 800-334-0411 ext. 12-E to order:  Use Visa, MasterCard or American Express.  This is a 24 hour number.  If you prefer to mail a check, ask to speak to someone on the KVS staff for the fastest service mailing address, and for a code to be written on your mailing envelope to assure your special rate.  From outside the USA call 828-692-3401.  If you prefer to order by Email:  info@key-volume.com.  Be sure to include your telephone number with your order.  If you have a Fax number, please provide it as well.    Thank you, we appreciate your joining us, we fill all orders by 2 day priority mail; auxiliary material is sent by Email.

 

**************************************************************************************************************************

 

PSF (PROFIT SIZE FORECASTER) / EOP (EASE OF PROFIT) FORMULAS:

KEY-VOLUME STRATEGIES INC.                    RELEASE #952 JULY/AUG/SEPT 2007                            VOL. 38, NO. 4

 

Hello again from your KVS support staff:  Welcome to the new world of DJI 13000-14000, and the DTE 2007 system! You may have been on an early distribution list for this milestone report in July, with special offers, because of your past orders. If not, this web site copy will bring you current. This can mean important savings for you, because some fees are scheduled to double.  Thank you very much for choosing the KVS family of investment products and services!  KVS Systems Support

 

KVS #952 SUMMER  2007:  MESSAGE FROM THE DOW: “I HAVE JUST CHANGED 55 OR

MORE POINTS FROM YESTERDAY. TAKE THIS AS A CLUE TO PROFIT 50% FROM OPTIONS.”  

 

When the Dow starts talking to you, perhaps you’ve been working too hard, and you need a rest. But then again, this could be special reward time if you accept a challenge. This is our 38th year in the market, and our experience tells us that there’s always another challenge. Stay alert, recognize what it is, and do something about it. It’s too soon to rest!

 

A system we call simply “DTE” for Daily Trade Email, has been the work horse for our specific entry/exit logic for trading index options. The SP100 (OEX) index is our preferred vehicle. If it’s not yours yet, we’re confident that it will be. Because DTE wants to trade almost every day, and we want to minimize open positions, we have a not-so-fantastic 30% quick profit goal per signal. We’ve been getting it more than two thirds of the time, for going on 3 years. What about unused potential?

 

DTE does have a way to score occasional large gains, even in excess of 100%. But what if we could score frequent large gains, not necessarily triple digits, but realistically: how many traders would object to +50% to +75% gains, let’s say 6 to 10 times a month? What could make that happen? Something as simple as 55 point or larger moves by the Dow (DJI), in either direction, from one day’s closing to the next. Continue to use the established DTE quick gain logic, but when the Dow gives a large gain alert: boost the 30% target to the 50% to 75% range, even higher at times, with some added logic.

 

You’ll be pleased to know that such added logic is no longer tentative: it has been applied to DTE signals, and Dow signals, since the start of 2007. We designated the 6 month period through June as the pre-release test period, then extended it by 2 months through August, to give “Murphy’s Law” more than a fair chance to make its move. We’ve all had experience with this troublesome “law”: “If something can go wrong, it will.”

 

What the new logic has accomplished so far, as you’re about to see, leaves us confident that “DTE 2007” is not about to present unpleasant surprises. Therefore the upgraded DTE, with large gain capability, is available now at a discounted early release fee. After August the fee will rise considerably, so for the “daring” among you the opportunity is here right now to get a head start, and save a significant amount. Scan the record, then we’ll tell you more. If it’s past August when you read this: see extra 5th page with track record addendum, and grace period special into September.

 

---- DTE 2007 ACHIEVED BY SIGNAL TYPE ----

SIGNAL  %OF ALL  TOTAL   AVERAGE      WIN

 TYPE   SIGNALS  %GAIN  PER SIGNAL   RATIO

  1N      44     + 823%   + 46%       83%

  5,6     15     + 432%   + 72%      100%

  2N      12     + 423%   + 85%      100%

  1       12     + 373%   + 75%       80%

  3N      10     + 153%   + 38%       75%

  4N       7     + 171%   + 57%      100%

  ALL    100     +2375%   + 58%       87%

 

 

Specific Option, with Entry & Exit Prices, In a Nightly Email, Directly to You  The nightly email hotline content, to which current DTE users are accustomed, will be extended by a few lines starting July 31, to include Large Gain advice. To quantify the new large gain capability, we gave you a summary above, based on the last 50 times the DJI changed 55 or more points, close to close, and a DTE 2007 signal resulted. About 2 in 10 signals permit no action, because other signal components cancel them, or the buy price is not available. The table on page 2 expands the summary into trade by trade detail.

 

Do you need to learn the signal logic? No, you do not. The nightly email tells you exactly which option to buy, at what price, and what your sell target is as a minimum, commonly 50%. Thus, as soon as your email subscription starts, you can begin trading. Even with the decisions made for you, you’ll probably like some insight into the system foundation and logic structure:  So we’re adding a description of signal components to the trade by detail on the next page. When the DJI changes 55 or more in a single day, that is a trading alert, not a signal yet.  One or more of the other signal components need to confirm the alert. Altogether there are 6 components, each one a KVS “in house” technical invention, ranging in experience from 38 years to one year. They have been specially put together for DTE 2007 and stand ready to serve you. Meet the team:

 

 

DTE 2007 SIGNAL COMPONENTS    1. DJI Closing Change: At Least 55 points above or below the previous day’s.

 2. Magnetic Bands: Used for support and resistance in market timing for 28 years. Recently enhanced with day to day option trading capability.  3. “2 Day Magnet” and “EOP” (Ease of Profit): These formulas have generated the 30% quick profit signals for DTE since 2005. 4. Natural Volatility: Upgraded from 2003 to recognize when it’s OK to buy an option at next day’s opening for a 50 to 60% rise. Signal types ending with N are supported by the smart second screen we call NV3.

 

5. “Two-Day Swing”: Measurement of full DJI 2 day move size, using intraday extremes, from low to high, and also high to low. Used since KVS started in 1970. 6. Trading Edge “TE”as computed daily by the Op40 system:  Whether the direction of the DJI move (component #1) agrees or disagrees with the “TE” direction determines most signal types. For traders who prefer to learn a system in detail, then have a role in decision making,”Op40” is the recommended alternative to DTE 2007. Works well together with the “9 to 1 Edge Finder”. These two systems are featured on the last 2 pages today.   

 

Now see what the team has been capable of, and how to order the DTE 2007 service. Thank you for choosing a KVS product!

 

                        SIGNAL    OPTION   BUY   TARGETS AND DAYS TO ACHIEVE THEM

DATE  TYPE  CHOICE  PRICE  ORIG DAYS  HIGH DAYS  NORM %GAIN

3/ 2   4N   MAR650C  1.80  2.70   0   2.80   0   2.75 + 53%

3/ 5   4N   APR660C  2.90  4.30   X   4.20   3   4.20 + 45%

3/ 6   3N   APR580P  1.85  2.75   X   2.25   4   2.05 + 11%

3/13   3N   APR580P  2.25  3.40   0   3.40   0   3.40 + 51%

3/14   1N   APR655C  3.10  4.60   X   4.00   3   4.00 + 29%

3/19   1N   APR600P  1.85  2.75   X   1.90   0   1.25 – 32%

3/20   1    APR660C  2.15  3.20   0   6.80   1   5.00 +132%

3/21   1N   APR665C  3.00  4.30   1   4.40   1   4.35 + 45%

3/21   2N   APR635P  2.40  3.60   2   4.90   4   4.25 + 77%

3/23   5    APR635P  2.60  3.90   0   4.90   2   4.40 + 69%

3/28   1N   APR625P  1.70  2.55   0   3.10   0   2.83 + 66%

 

4/ 3   1N   APR665C  2.25  3.40   0   3.50   2   3.45 + 53%

4/11   2N   MAY675C  2.50  3.70   1   7.00   2   5.35 +114%

4/12   1N   MAY675C  3.20  4.80   1   8.50   2   6.65 +108%

4/16   3N   MAY685C  2.40  3.60   1   5.90   3   4.75 + 98%

4/20   1    MAY695C  1.85  2.75   2   3.30   2   3.03 + 64%

4/25   1N   MAY695C  3.00  4.50   X   2.95   2   2.95 -  2%

4/27   5    MAY665P  1.90  2.85   0   3.40   1   3.13 + 64%

5/ 2   1N   MAY695C  2.50  3.70   1   4.50   2   4.10 + 64%

5/11   1N   JUN710C  2.05  3.10   1   4.10   4   3.60 + 75%

5/16   1N   JUN710C  2.90  4.30   2   4.40   2   4.35 + 50%

5/22   5    JUN675P  1.80  2.70   1   3.10   1   2.90 + 61%

5/24   2N   JUN710C  1.85  2.75   2   4.20   4   3.48 + 88%

5/30   1N   JUN710C  3.00  4.20   1   4.20   1   4.20 + 40%

5/30   4N   JUN690P  1.90  2.60   0   4.00   4   3.30 + 73%

 

6/ 6   1    JUL650P  2.65  4.00   0   4.20   1   4.10 + 55%

6/ 7   3N   JUL630P  2.10  3.10   X   1.95   2   1.95 -  7%

6/ 8   1N   JUL715C  3.30  4.60   3   6.40   4   5.50 + 67%

6/13   1N   JUL715C  3.50  5.20   1   6.40   1   5.80 + 66%

6/15   1    JUL725C  2.45  3.70   X   2.40   2   2.35 -  4%

6/19   5    JUL670P  1.50  2.25   0   4.00   1   3.13 +109%

6/20   1N   JUL670P  3.20  4.80   1   6.60   3   5.70 + 78%

6/21   2N   JUL670P  2.75  4.10   0   6.60   2   5.35 + 94%

6/22   1N   JUL655P  2.30  3.40   1   4.10   2   3.75 + 63% 

6/26   6    JUL710C  2.00  3.00   0   3.70   1   3.35 + 67%

6/27   1N   JUL710C  2.75  4.00   3   4.10   3   4.05 + 47%

6/27   2N   JUL655P  1.50  2.20   1   2.30   1   2.25 + 50%

6/29   5    JUL710C  2.50  3.70   1   4.40   4   4.05 + 62%

 

7/ 2   1N   JUL710C  2.80  4.20   2   4.40   3   4.30 + 54%

7/10   1N   AUG640P  2.30  3.40   X   1.10   3   1.10 – 52%

7/11   1    AUG730C  2.10  3.10   0   6.40   1   4.75 +126%

 

Notes on column content, more detail when you subscribe:  SIGNAL TYPE is determined by which components played a role. BUY PRICE is specified in daily email. ORIGINAL TARGET (sell) is specified in daily email. X indicates the target was not reached and needed to be lowered in follow-on email. DAY 0 means the day of purchase, 1 is a day later, etc. NORM is the average gain, halfway between minimum (original) and high, you get guidelines up front, then comments in daily email.

 

How to order the Early Release at Lowest Price:  Cost is $409 including the current DTE 2006 system, with rules for 30% gains and new guidelines for larger gains, also including 3 months daily email, with quick gain entry & exit, as well as large gain entry & exit. On Aug 31, 2007 the fee will approximately double. Order with credit card by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling toll free: 800-334-0411 x12D. All system user questions are answered same day or next. Renewal fees are $219 for 3 months or $389 for 6. Mail orders: call or send email to say this is your preference, and you’ll get a code and address.

KVS #952 page 3

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"OPTIONS 40 IN 4"  - 12TH YEAR, 2007 -  LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%

OPTION BUYER’S ADVANTAGE: ANY KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!

*********************************************************************

 

Already in its 12th year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed both its long term goals:  1. A 75% win ratio:  3 of 4 trades producing gains.  2. An average rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions.  We set the second goal by targeting this sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals:   +40% ... +40% ... +40% ... and -25% ...  (+120 - 25 = +95,  and  +95/4 = +24).   How goals have been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all performance periods to date.  Each period is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule. Update coming late September.

 

 --- TRADING ---  WIN:LOSS  -- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE --  TOTAL

 PERIOD  SIGNALS   RATIO    TOT % RISE   AVGE % RISE  "RPS"

 1-104   1458    1159:299    +50480%        + 34%    1262.0

  105      11       7: 4      + 140%        + 13%       3.5

  106      14      12: 2      + 740%        + 53%      18.5

  107      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  108       9       6: 3      + 160%        + 18%       4.0

  109      12      10: 2      + 520%        + 43%      13.0

  110      11       9: 2      + 440%        + 40%      11.0

  111      10       8: 2      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  112      10       6: 4      + 280%        + 28%       7.0

  113      10       8: 2      + 180%        + 18%       4.5

  114      11       9: 2      + 360%        + 33%       9.0

  115      16      10: 6      + 180%        + 11%       4.5

  116       8       7: 1      + 240%        + 30%       6.0

  117      12       7: 5      + 240%        + 20%       6.0

  118      14      11: 3      + 480%        + 34%      12.0

  119      11       7: 4      + 160%        + 15%       4.0

  120      13       8: 5      + 180%        + 14%       4.5

  121      11      10: 1      + 500%        + 45%      12.5

  122      17      11: 6      + 460%        + 27%      11.5

  123      13      11: 2      + 740%        + 56%      18.5

  124      14      11: 3      + 520%        + 37%      13.0

  125      14      12: 2      + 680%        + 48%      17.0

  126      14      10: 4      + 360%        + 26%       9.0

  127      12       9: 3      + 200%        + 17%       5.0

  128      15      11: 4      + 520%        + 34%      13.0

  129      19      16: 3      + 420%        + 22%      10.5

  130      15      13: 2      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  131      14      11: 3      + 400%        + 29%      10.0

  132      14      12: 2      + 580%        + 41%      14.5

  133      14      11: 3      + 560%        + 40%      14.0

  134      15       8: 7      + 120%        +  8%       3.0

  135      15      11: 4      + 420%        + 28%      10.5

  136      16      14: 2      + 640%        + 40%      16.0

  137      13      10: 3      + 280%        + 22%       7.0

  138      11       8: 3      + 320%        + 29%       8.0

  139      15      12: 3      + 640%        + 43%      16.0

  140      17       9: 8      + 200%        + 12%       5.0

  141      16      12: 4      + 420%        + 26%      10.5

  142      15      10: 5      + 320%        + 21%       8.0

  143      15      10: 5      + 440%        + 29%      11.0

  144      13      12: 1      + 700%        + 54%      17.5

  145      17      12: 5      + 580%        + 34%      14.5

  146      12       9: 3      + 460%        + 38%      11.5

  147      14      12: 2      + 540%        + 39%      13.5

  148      13       9: 4      + 360%        + 28%       9.0

  149      12       8: 4      + 440%        + 37%      11.0

  150      12       8: 4      + 260%        + 22%       6.5

  151      13      12: 1      + 680%        + 52%      17.0

  152      13      11: 2      + 300%        + 23%       7.5

  153      14      11: 3      + 500%        + 36%      12.5

 ALL 153 2115    1654:461    +70360%        + 33%    1759.0

 

The 78% win ratio (1654 gains/2115 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (70360/2115) exceeds the +24% goal.  So results are not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score)  we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every 20%).  The system prevents trades likely to underperform, limiting some periods to  10 trades.  Next page:  recent record trade by trade.  Milestone Special!  Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and  receive besides:  3 months toll free voice, or Email  hotline.  Special combo $545. To include “9 to 1 Edge Finder” (see other page) add only $130, total $675.  Hotline is your daily price source and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call, one put) whose price action produces the exclusive Trading Edge.  Hotline computes the edge as well!

 OP40  TRADE   OPTION   TRDG    % RISE AT LEAST   RISE   MIN % LOSS   PERFORMANCE   AVG   ROSE

SIGNAL  SEQ    CHOICE   EDGE  +20  +40  +60  +80  <20%  -1  -40 –60   RPS   CUMUL   BUY    TO

APR 27           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0    0.0

    30    1    MAY665P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -55  ..  - 1.0  - 1.0   2.45  1.10

MAY 1+           (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  - 1.0

    2     2    MAY695C    6    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 0.5   2.62  4.50

    3+    3      “”       8   +27   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 1.0   3.30  4.50

    4     4    MAY700C   10    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -27   ..  ..  - 0.5  + 0.5   2.05  1.50

    7+    5    JUN715C    4   +28   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 1.0   1.60  2.05

    8     6      “”       4   +21   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 1.5   1.70  2.05

    9+    7      “”       6    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 2.5   1.35  2.00

   10+    8    JUN650P    6    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 2   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 2.5   1.87  1.90

   11     9    JUN710C    7    ..   ..  +70   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 4.0   2.37  4.10

   14            (P)      2    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 4.0

   15    10    JUN710C   10    ..   ..  +75   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.5  + 5.5   2.52  4.40

   16    11      “”       8    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 6.5   2.85  4.40

   17    12      “”       5   +28   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 7.0   3.45  4.40

   18+   13    JUN715C    4   +21   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 7.5   1.93  2.30

   21+           (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

   22            (P)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

   23+           (C)      1    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 7.5

***   PERIOD 152:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         + 7.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +16.0

               

MAY24+    1    JUN675P    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -21   ..  ..  - 0.5  - 0.5   1.78  1.40

   25     2    JUN710C    5    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 1.5   1.92  4.20

   29           NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 1.5

   30     3    JUN710C    7   +35   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 2.0   3.12  4.20

   31     4    JUN690P    6    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 4.0   1.70  4.00

JUN 1     5    JUN715C    5    ..  +45   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 5.0   1.30  1.90

    4+    6    JUL735C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   .. -60  - 1.5  + 3.5   1.55   .60

    5            (P)      3    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 3.5

    6+    7    JUL650C    5    ..  +55   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 1.0  + 4.5   2.67  4.20

    7+    8    JUL630P   10   +30   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 0.5  + 5.0   1.50  1.95

    8     9    JUL715C    4    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 7.0   3.20  6.40

   11    10      “”       7    ..   ..   .. +100   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  + 9.0   2.30  6.40

   12+          NONE      0    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ..    0.0  + 9.0

   13    11    JUL715C    7    ..   ..   ..  +80   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +11.0   3.50  6.40

   14+   12    JUL720C    8    ..   ..   ..   ..  + 3   ..   ..  ..    0.0  +11.0   3.70  3.80

   15+   13    JUL725C    4    ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  -35   ..  ..  - 0.5  +10.5   2.27  1.45

   20    14    JUL670P    6    ..   ..   ..  +85   ..   ..   ..  ..  + 2.0  +12.5   2.71  5.00

***   PERIOD 153:  RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR   ……………………………………………………         +12.5

***  SIGNALS FLAGGED +  ENHANCED BY “9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER”, NEW SUM ……        +19.0

 

 

Teamwork: Op40 with “9 to 1 Edge Finder”  Options“40 In 4”, better known by its nick name “Op40”, has been our most popular option system since its first year. We bring you a monthly update of both the long term (previous page) and short term records (see two latest  periods above).  Major appeal of Op40 to option traders is that you learn the system, then maintain a measure of control:   you have elbow room to make your own decisions whether to trade or not – depending on size of “TE” (Trading Edge) – and whether to settle for a smaller profit quicker, or try for a  “home run”.  Note in the performance periods above:  no fewer than 11 opportunities for gains of +55% or better.  Different size profits are in different columns, for an easy scan of the distribution of smaller and larger gains. What the Op40 logic has not favored is buying at the market. Buy orders 5 to 30 cents under the previous close work the best.

 

A companion system from 2000, the “9 to 1 Edge Finder”, does buy at the next opening after a signal. What if the price gaps up, and leaves small room for profit? The “9 to 1” logic sets a limit price for a second buy a certain % under the first. If an up gap whipsaws back down, making it look like the buy was too high, buying again nearly always turns a paper loss into one or two actual gains.  Every signal flagged by + in the signal column invoked teamwork between the two systems. The foundation for both is simple math, comparing certain option prices to others, and using the percent differences for trading decisions.

 

There are 5 ways for teamwork to enhance results:  review below, then spot them in the record. For an easy scan of signal performance we have used the “RPS” (Rated Performance Score) method since the 1996 charter offer, which remains on our website www.key-volume.com.  The 5 ways, with examples:

 

1.        Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but “9 to 1” traded.  May 1, 21, 23; Jun 12. Example 6/12:  “9 to 1” Jul715C doubled 2.35 to 4.70.

2.        Op40 had a signal in one direction, “9 to 1” had one in the other direction: May 7, 9, 10; Jun 6, 15. To assure that there’s enough volatility for profit in both directions: “9 to 1” checks how high the TE is, and if it’s 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own signal.

3.        “9 to 1” bought twice. May 18, 21. Example 5/21: “9 to 1” Jun675P bought 2.35 and 1.60, then profited twice on rise to 3.10.

4.        Op40 los prevented or offset by“9 to 1”:  May 24; Jun 4,15. Example 6/15: call lost, but “9 to 1” choice Jul670P more than doubled from 2.25.

5.        Both systems chose the same option, suggesting higher $ commitment: May 3, 18, 21; Jun 7, 14.

 

Option Buyer’s Advantage: Daily Market Timing is Built In!  It’s a good idea to time your larger option purchases near our projected market bottoms and tops, but for daily action simply trade the signals of “Op40” and “9 to 1”.

 

Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling 800-334-0411 x12K. We’ll be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc, 46 E. Lincoln Ave, White Plains