KVS (Key-Volume
Strategies)
Short Term Market Services and Systems
Dear Trading Enthusiast:
Key-Volume Strategies Inc (KVS) is in its 42nd year of providing original systems, and related services, to active traders. We do not update our web site frequently because we are in daily contact with subscribers and system purchasers through email hotlines and feedback programs. Our web site serves the purpose of initial contact, so you know what we offer and how long we've been serving Wall Street.
As you become familiar with our work, you'll notice that through these many challenging and eventful years of market rises and declines, our main thrust has been technical innovation. What we offer is exclusive to our subscribers and system users. KVS products that have stood the test of time most notably, and remain popular in 2011, include:
1. Options "40 In 4", a system invented and launched in 1996, and used continuously since then. We nicknamed it Op40. It is a standalone product to trade SP100 (OEX) calls and puts regularly, with a remarkably small amount of daily attention. The trading edge formula of Op40 does not even require a computer, and no option watching during the day is called for! For those who prefer to trade SP500 (SPY) options, the correlation is high between similarly priced SP100 and SP500 options, expiring in the current or next month.
2. KVS Market Hotline: Nightly email service with specific short term market bottom and top predictions; support and resistance targets; and market cycle projections.
3. "9 to 1 Edge Finder": An option system similar to, but independent of, "Op40".
All KVS products just mentioned have nightly email services, that announce signals for specific options, and for the DJI (Dow). The emails track trades and market targets from recommendation to exit. Changes to targets are reported promptly.
You're welcome to browse KVS products and services under the ===== separator line, but do not take prices for granted: inquire about current availability and cost. We are easy to contact by email: kvshotlines@aol.com or toll free: 877-350-3796. Thank you for discovering KVS! Ben Sterling and the KVS Systems Staff.
======================================================================================
******************************************************************************************************
KVS
#957 FALL 2008: 1. AUTO TRADE THE KVS OPTION SYSTEM
DTE2008: DOWN MARKET TRADE AVERAGE
+26%; 2. SHORT TERM MARKET CYCLES: NEW
BEAR PHASE INEVITABLE; 3. OP40 YEAR
#13!
******************************************************************************************************
We have completed our last DTE2008 performance task, to maintain a +25% or better trade average in an environment of unpredictable whipsaws. The task was to recognize unusually high risk of loss in advance, and bypass the responsible signals. Period #16 in the 10 month summary below (Oct 2007 into Aug 2008) presented no fewer than 5 real life test cases for the inevitability of loss. Indeed, actual trades incurred losses, but our Loss Bypass Screen, developed and back tested as part of this last task, ignored these signals and bypassed the losses. Retroactive application to periods before #16 would have enhanced returns further, but we felt that period #16 by itself sufficed as a proving ground.
Your first Bonus as an Auto Trader will be a
detailed description of how inevitable loss can be recognized in advance, and
side stepped. In your auto trade
account, recognizing and side stepping such a high risk profile will be evident
from the absence of trade recommendations for certain days. Trade omission
rationale will be amplified by educational footnotes. You wont need to take
any special action, the auto trade process will simply not allow certain
signals to generate trades. But if you have one or more other trading accounts
that you manage yourself: then knowing the Loss Bypass Screen may
well become one of your most appreciated assets. --- Here is your 10 month DTE2008 snapshot: it was during this
period that the Dow fell 20% (even increased it to 25%), and thereby issued a
traditional Bear Market signal:
======
============= ======= ==== ==== ====== ===== ======== ========
1 OCT 31-NOV 14 11 +265 +295
+280% + 280% 11 + 25%
2 NOV 15-NOV 30 11 +139 +183
+161% + 441% 22 + 20%
3 DEC 3-DEC 17 11 +297
+183 +240% + 681% 33 + 21%
4 DEC 18-JAN 4 11 +241
+259 +250% + 931% 44 + 21%
5 JAN 7-JAN 22 11 +397
+889 +643% +1574% 55 + 29%
6 JAN 23-FEB 6 11 +551
+562 +556% +2130% 66 + 32%
7 FEB 7-FEB 22 11 +153 +
6 + 80% +2210% 77 + 29%
8 FEB 25-MAR 10 11 +310 +384
+347% +2557% 88 + 29%
9 MAR 11-MAR 26 11 +331 +404
+368% +2925% 99 + 30%
10 MAR 27-APR 16 11 +162 +625
+393% +3318% 110 + 30%
11 APR 17-MAY 2 13 +224
+563 +394% +3712% 123 + 30%
12 MAY 5-MAY 21 11 +168 +
84 +126% +3838% 134 + 29%
13 MAY 22-JUN 6 12 + 96
+326 +211% +4049% 146 +
28%
14 JUN 9-JUN 24 11 +152 -
41 + 56% +4105% 157 + 26%
15
JUN 25-JUL 14 11 +233 + 67
+150% +4255% 168 + 25%
16
JUL 15-AUG 7 12
+187 +535 +361% +4616% 180
+ 26%
The last entry
in the record, in the three right columns, shows that the cumulative gain on
180 traded signals was +4616%. The average gain was +26%: 4616 divided by 180.
If you trade index options systematically, with daily attention, this should
not surprise you. Anticipating your questions: How
long does a trade last? One to 4 sessions. How does KVS get a signal?
By analyzing price patterns and market movements daily, using original KVS
formulas. How does KVS share the signal with its system users? By email near
10PM ET. The email advises, for next day: specific option; specific buy price;
specific sell price. If the option is
still held at the end of the next day: that night's email advises a new
sell price, or stays with the previous.
Which
index and expiration month does KVS use? All signals
are for specific SP100 ("OEX") options, expiring in the current
month, unless the time left is less than 2 weeks; in that case the following
month is picked. "Can I substitute a different index, if I think it
will do better?" SP100 price action correlates well with the price
action of other indices. If KVS recommends a call, you buy a call as well, on
your chosen index. If KVS recommends a put, you buy a put as well,
on your chosen index. Track KVS results, and your own, for a few
days. Be satisfied that you're getting comparable gains. Typically:
The KVS option
choice achieves +30% to +40% on a winning trade. Losses are no more than 4 out
of 11. Average loss is less than average gain. These results should be
what you get from your chosen index as well, as a minimum. If your choice
under performs the KVS choice more often than not: raise or lower your
strike price, till your performance is on par. Or simply
trade the exact options KVS chooses: any stock broker can buy and sell OEX
options, and no margin is needed. Starting capital of $3000 to $5000 is common.
Why does KVS
measure its system performance in groups of 11 to 13 signals? It takes 2
weeks, sometimes an extra day or two, to get 11 trading signals. Summarizing
results for 2 weeks at a time enables frequent performance
comparisons, reflecting the system's ability to be
consistently profitable, ranging from highly profitable as periods 5 & 6,
to modestly or marginally profitable as periods 7 & 14.
What do the
headings mean for the 5 columns that track the percent achieved? Q% = Quick
Exits. These were sales within 5 sessions (commonly
within 3) at predetermined prices. R% = Relaxed Exits.
Slower sales, typically 1 day past quick exits, at the opening. Composite = Q%
and R% averaged. This is the key performance
measure. Cumulative = Composite results cumulated. Cum Avge = Cumulative
Average. Composite results divided by cumulated signals.
Do the results
for 10 months suggest a trend? Yes. Note in the last
column that the average exceeded +29% for 4 periods (#6, 9, 10, 11), then eased
down into the 20's, ending on an up tick with the current +26%. Since DTE2008
was designed to do particularly well in a recessionary or "Bear
Market" environment, the fact that results have moved beyond their
peaks indicates that the strong hold of the bear has been weakening. If you
prefer to trade call options to puts, to benefit from a rising market and
improving economy, you'll find that the daily signal mix will gradually shift
more and more to favor call options, and puts will return to their traditional
role of capitalizing on downside reactions.
Time to favor a
veteran "all weather" system like Op40 again, in its 13th year? We welcome new and renewing users to either
system. After the Short Term Market Cycles update,
youll find several pages on Op40, the do it yourself traders option system.
Should you prefer that a broker
familiar with KVS trade a system for you: choose DTE2008
because it is a specific entry & exit vehicle, thus
especially suitable for Auto Trading.
For details: send an email to kvshotlines@aol.com. Include your phone
number, and say you're interested in trading DTE2008. We'll
respond with the contact information, email and phone, for our Auto Trade broker. You make
your own contact for account setup, and information on rebates based on
trading frequency, to reduce or eliminate your
cost. These are pre-requisites, so that KVS
may provide the daily trading advice to the broker:
You need to be a current or new
KVS/DTE2008 subscriber. Choose from the special offers below. The $544 offer
for 6 months includes a $155 administrative fee. If youre a current
subscriber, with 6 or more months KVS/DTE2008 service left, then you can start
with the $155 administrative fee as your only expense. These fees are
exclusively for KVS, as provider of the daily advice by email. Same advice is
provided to our Auto Trade broker, the night before each trading
day, and to individual subscribers who do not Auto Trade.
After you have your response from our
Auto Trade broker: Decide
whether you wish an Auto Trade arrangement, and before
your trading account is set up, take care of your KVS subscription or
administrative fee by email: kvshotlines@aol.com. For those who also
wish to phone, our System Support number has 24 hour voice mail: 877-350-3796.
=================================================================
** What are the current special offers for Op40 and DTE2008, separately or together? If you are not a KVS system or email
hotline user yet: DTE2008 is $544 with 6 months nightly email. KVS Market Timing, with Dow (DJI) targets
in both directions, updated daily, is a separate extra
feature provided at no charge.
Op40 is $545 with 4 months nightly email. Longer term Op40 offers are not
available because of quota. You're welcome to both the $544 and $545
offers as a combo, with an 11% discount. Extra bonus with the combo:
2 more months of Op40 email, so you'll have the same duration for the
nightly email of both systems. Cost of this 6 month package: $969. Review above
whether youre eligible for the $155 fee only.
How to Order: Your choice of email to kvshotlines@aol.com or phone order:
877-350-3796 or 800-334-0411 x12D. Use Visa, Master Card or American Express.
Prefer to mail a check? Key-Volume Strategies Inc,
**
Introduction to KVS features, with Q&A: If you clicked on the Auto Trade link on
the KVS web site to get here, this took you on a shortcut past informative text
which we recommend that you read now, by scrolling back to the beginning of
"KVS #957 Fall 2008".
====================================================================
How to
Order: Your choice of email to kvshotlines@aol.com or phone
order: 877-350-3796 or 800-334-0411 x12D. Use Visa, Master Card or American
Express. Prefer to mail a check? Key-Volume Strategies Inc,
====================================================================
Short Term Market Cycles: New
Bear Phase Coming; Profits Taken on Previous Recovery
These cycles were discovered by KVS in early 2007. They are tracked on the nightly KVS Market Hotline: a second nightly email for DTE2008 subscribers and Auto Traders. This is a bonus in addition to the Loss Bypass Screen.
Each short term market cycle consists of three phases: 1. Bear Phase, 2. Turnaround Phase, 3. Recovery Phase. Next on the agenda is a new Bear Phase. It will be signaled by a 240 point or larger down closing by the Dow (DJI). Might you have to wait quite a while for that? Not likely. The average interval between Bear Phase signals has been 22 calendar days, and the last such signal occurred on July 28. What came next? The Turnaround Phase followed unusually quickly, the next day. Its entry formula suggested buying at DJI 11265. This was accomplished on August 1, and the Recovery Phase was in force. Its profit taking formula targeted 11681 for a gain of +416 points. Profits are normally in the 400 to 600 points range.
On Aug 6 the profit materialized, and an extended recovery followed. We needed to use other KVS market tools to project a goal above 11681. The KVS Market Hotline uses several such tools regularly. It announced that based on our special work with Big 1 Day Changes (DJI 90 points or more at the close), a further rise into the 11932-11947 range is justified. On Aug 11 this range was reached, with a theoretical high of 11934. Theoretical highs and lows on the Dow are more accurate measures of overbought and oversold extremes than the actual numbers that you see on computer and TV screens all day. Theoretical numbers become available shortly after the close. We get them from the CBOE, which is also our source for option prices.
Just two sessions past the 11934 high, the DJI was already back down to
11377, a substantial 557 points. This swift drop was punctuated by single day
down closings of -140 and -110 points. That was a total of -250. Are we in a
new Bear Phase? No, we did not get a single
day down closing of -240 or more negative. So the wait continues. Meanwhile the
KVS Market Hotline keeps
its users well supplied with market targets in both directions. And for option
traders, DTE2008 and Op40 leave little room for
inactivity. The balance of this report focuses on Options
40 In 4 (Op40), including a 13th anniversary
Q&A
***********************************************************************
"OPTIONS 40 IN 4" - 13TH YEAR CONTINUES - LONG TERM WIN RATIO
78%
OPTION BUYERS ADVANTAGE: ANY
KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!
***********************************************************************
Already in its 13th
year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed
both its long term goals: 1. A 75% win ratio: 3 of 4
trades producing gains. 2. An average
rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions. We set the second goal by targeting this
sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals: +40% ... +40% ... +40% ...
and -25% ... (+120 - 25 =
+95, and
+95/4 = +24). How goals have
been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all
performance periods to date. Each period
is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication
schedule.
--- TRADING --- WIN:LOSS
-- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE -- TOTAL
PERIOD SIGNALS RATIO TOT % RISE AVGE % RISE "RPS"
1-117
1605 1269:336 +54540% + 34%
1363.5
118 14 11: 3
+ 480% + 34% 12.0
119 11 7: 4
+ 160% + 15% 4.0
120 13 8: 5
+ 180% + 14% 4.5
121 11 10: 1
+ 500% + 45% 12.5
122 17 11: 6
+ 460% + 27% 11.5
123 13 11: 2
+ 740% + 56% 18.5
124 14 11: 3
+ 520% + 37% 13.0
125 14 12: 2
+ 680% + 48% 17.0
126 14 10: 4
+ 360% + 26% 9.0
127 12
9: 3 + 200% + 17% 5.0
128 15 11: 4
+ 520% + 34% 13.0
129 19 16: 3
+ 420% + 22% 10.5
130 15 13: 2
+ 440% + 29% 11.0
131 14 11:
3 + 400% + 29% 10.0
132 14 12: 2
+ 580% + 41% 14.5
133 14 11: 3
+ 560% + 40% 14.0
134 15 8: 7
+ 120% + 8%
3.0
135 15 11: 4
+ 420% + 28% 10.5
136 16 14: 2
+ 640% + 40% 16.0
137 13 10: 3
+ 280% + 22% 7.0
138 11 8: 3
+ 320% + 29% 8.0
139 15 12: 3
+ 640% + 43% 16.0
140 17 9: 8
+ 200% + 12% 5.0
141 16 12: 4
+ 420% + 26% 10.5
142 15 10: 5
+ 320% + 21% 8.0
143 15 10: 5
+ 440% + 29% 11.0
144 13
12: 1 + 700% + 54% 17.5
145 17 12: 5
+ 580% + 34% 14.5
146 12 9: 3
+ 460% + 38% 11.5
147 14 12: 2
+ 540% + 39% 13.5
148 13 9: 4
+ 360% + 28% 9.0
149 12 8: 4
+ 440% + 37% 11.0
150 12 8: 4
+ 260% + 22% 6.5
151 13 12: 1
+ 680% + 52% 17.0
152 13 11: 2
+ 300% + 23% 7.5
153 14 11: 3
+ 500% + 36% 12.5
154 14 11: 3
+ 420% + 30% 10.5
155 13 11: 2
+ 560% + 43% 14.0
156 13 9: 4
+ 280% + 22% 7.0
157 13 8: 5
+ 300% + 23% 7.5
158 14 12: 2
+ 540% + 39% 13.5
159 14 10: 4
+ 360% + 26% 9.0
160 12 8: 4
+ 240% + 20% 6.0
161 15
13: 2 + 680% + 45% 17.0
162 12 8: 4
+ 160% + 13% 4.0
163 13 10: 3
+ 400% + 31% 10.0
164 15 10: 5
+ 260% + 17% 6.5
165 9 6: 3
+ 300% + 33% 7.5
166 15 13: 2
+ 680% + 45% 17.0
167 11 9: 2
+ 420% + 38% 10.5
ALL
167 2298 1792:506 +75960% + 33%
1899.0
____________________________________________________________
The 78% win ratio (1792
gains/2298 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (75960/2298)
exceeds the +24% goal. So results are
not skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score) we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every
20%). The system prevents trades
likely to underperform, limiting some periods to 10 trades.
Next pages: recent record trade by trade. Anniversary Special! Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and receive besides: 3 months toll free voice,
or Email hotline. Special combo $545. To include 9 to 1 Edge Finder (see other
page) add only $130, total $675. Hotline is your daily price source
and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call,
one put) whose price action produces the
exclusive Trading Edge. Hotline computes the edge as well!
SIGNAL SEQ CHOICE EDGE
+20 +40 +60
+80 <20% -1 -40 60 RPS CUMUL
BUY TO
JAN31 1
FEB665C 7 ..
+40 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. + 1.0 + 1.0
2.70 3.80
FEB 1+ 2
8 ..
.. .. ..
.. -65 ..
.. - 1.5 - 0.5
2.07 0.65
4 3 FEB660C
4 .. ..
.. .. ..
-65 .. .. -
1.5 - 2.0 0.90
0.30
5 4 MAR530P
7 .. +55
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 - 1.0 2.55
4.00
6+ 5
10 +20 ..
.. ..
.. .. ..
.. + 0.5 - 0.5
3.17 3.80
7 6
6 +20 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 0.0 2.77
3.30
8 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
0.0
11 (C) 2 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. 0.0 0.0
12 7 MAR670C
5 .. ..
.. .. ..
-3 .. .. -
0.5 - 0.5 2.42
2.35
13+ 8
8 .. ..
.. .. ..
-6 .. .. -
0.5 - 1.0 2.50
2.35
14 9
7 .. +50
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 0.0 1.57
2.35
15 (C) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
0.0
19 (P) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
0.0
20 10 MAR660C
4 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 1.0 2.25
3.30
21 11 MAR560P
6 .. +40
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 2.0 2.20
3.10
22 (C) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0 +
2.0
25 12 MAR660C
8 .. ..
.. +85 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 4.0
*** PERIOD 162:
RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+ 4.0
*** SIGNALS FLAGGED + ENHANCED BY 9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER (more below)
FEB26 1
MAR660C 9 ..
.. +60 ..
.. .. ..
.. + 1.5 + 1.5
2.10 3.40
27+ 2
10 .. +40
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 2.5 1.89
2.70
28 (P) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 2.5
29 3 MAR565P
8 .. ..
.. +90 ..
.. .. .. +
2.5 + 4.5 2.15
4.10
MAR 3 4
3 ..
.. .. +100 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 6.5 2.05
4.10
4 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. ..
.. .. ..
0.0 + 6.5
5 (C) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 6.5
6 5 MAR565P
6 .. ..
+55 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 7.5 2.47
3.90
7 6
6 .. ..
+50 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 8.5 2.55
3.90
10 7 APR510P
10 .. ..
.. +80 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 +10.5 1.48
2.70
11 8 APR660C
4 .. ..
.. .. +12
.. .. ..
0.0 +10.5 1.97
2.20
12 (P) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+10.5
13+ 9 APR660C
5 .. ..
+65 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 +12.0 1.33
2.20
14 10 APR510P
5 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. -70 - 1.5
+10.5 3.00 0.80
17 11
7 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. -65
- 1.5 + 9.0 1.27
0.40
18 12 APR550P
4 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+11.0 2.25 4.70
19 13 APR530P
6 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. -55 .. -
1.0 +10.0 1.75
0.75
20 (C) 6
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+10.0 [2.50] ....
*** PERIOD 163:
RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+10.0
MAR24 1
APR660C 7 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. -60
- 1.5 - 1.5 2.25
0.80
25 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
- 1.5
26 2 APR570P
4 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 - 0.5 2.35
3.40
27 3
5 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 0.5 2.30
3.40
28+ 4
7 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. -65 - 1.5
- 1.0 2.45 0.80
31 5
7 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. -45 .. -
1.0 - 2.0 1.00
0.55
APR 1 6
APR655C 6 ..
.. .. ..
+18 .. ..
.. 0.0 - 2.0
2.45 2.90
2+ 7
4 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 - 1.0 1.97
2.90
3 8
7 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 0.5 1.55
2.50
4 (C) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 0.5
7 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 0.5
8 (P) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. .. .. ..
0.0 + 0.5
9 9 MAY570P
4 .. ..
.. +90 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 2.5 2.53
4.90
10 (C) 4
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 2.5
11 10 MAY550P
6 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. -65 - 1.5
+ 1.0 2.28 0.80
14 11
6 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. -50 .. -
1.0 0.0 1.07
0.50
15 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
0.0
16 12 MAY655C
2 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 2.0 2.32 6.40
17+ 13
6 .. +40
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 3.0 4.60
6.40
18+ 14 MAY665C
7 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 4.5 1.92
3.10
21 15
4 .. ..
.. +95 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 6.5 1.58
3.10
*** PERIOD 164:
RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+ 6.5
Companion System to Op40: 9 to 1 EdgeFinder: While the 9 to 1 Edge
Finder (called 9 to 1 for short) has its own trading rules and can be traded
as an independent system, it gives relatively few signals, and is most suitable
as an enhancer for Op40. When both systems give a trading signal for the same
option, consider investing a larger amount than youd commit typically. Signals flagged by + (plus sign) qualified
for this technique in the 3 periods above, and more on the next pages. In
total, the last 6 of 7 performance periods are final, and the 7th
(#168) is previewed, incomplete as we write this.
Total
RPS points for the flagged signals were 8.5, counting Op40 signals alone.
Committing 1.5 times the usual capital, to utilize Op40 and 9 to 1 teamwork,
increased RPS points to 13.0. Each RPS point represents a 40% to 59% gain.
Counting the minimum 40%: Total Op40
percent result for the flagged signals was +340%. Total from
Op40/9 to 1 teamwork for the same signals was +520%.
The
previous page gives long term results and includes a special offer for the
two-system combo. Notice that the difference is modest: $545 for Op40 with 3
months nightly email hotline (comes by 8:30PM ET before each trading day), and
$675 including the 9 to 1 Edge Finder with its own email hotline the same
days. The remaining two pages, which complete Rel #957, include additional
insights into 9 to 1, see Q9 of the Anniversary Q&A.
SIGNAL SEQ CHOICE EDGE
+20 +40 +60
+80 <20% -1 -40 60 RPS CUMUL
BUY TO
APR22+ (P) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
0.0
23+ 1 MAY665C
3 +100 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 2.0 1.62
3.10
24 2
3 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 4.0 2.02 4.70
25 3
4 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 6.0 2.03 4.70
28 4
4 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 8.0 1.57 4.70
29+ (P)
4 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
0.0 + 8.0
30+ 5 MAY605P
4 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. -40 .. -
1.0 + 7.0 1.07
0.60
MAY 1 (C) 4
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.0
2+ (P)
1 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
0.0 + 7.0
5+ 6 JUN590P
4 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 8.0 2.57
3.80
6 7 JUN690C
6 .. ..
.. .. ..
-16 .. .. -
0.5 + 7.5 0.89
0.75
7 8 JUN590P
7 .. ..
.. .. ..
-19 .. .. -
0.5 + 7.0 3.20
2.60
8 (P) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.0 [3.20]
9+ NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0 +
7.0
12+ (C) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.0
13 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.0
14 (C) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.0
15 9 JUN675C
6 +30 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 + 7.5 2.75
3.60
16 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.5
*** PERIOD 165:
RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+ 7.5
*** SIGNALS FLAGGED + ENHANCED BY 9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER (more below)
MAY19 1
JUN675C 3 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. -50
.. - 1.0 - 1.0
0.91 0.45
20 2 JUN605P
6 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0 +
1.0 2.30 5.00
21 3 JUN595P
7 .. +55
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 2.0 2.25
3.50
22+ 4
4 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 3.0 2.42
3.50
23 5
7 .. .. ..
.. + 6 ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 3.0 2.35 2.50
27 6 JUN660C
6 .. ..
+70 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 4.5 1.52
2.60
28 7
4 .. ..
+70 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 6.0
29 8
9 ..
.. .. ..
.. -35 ..
.. - 0.5 + 5.5
1.97 1.20
30 (C) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 5.5
JUN 2 9
JUN600P 5 ..
.. .. +100 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 7.5 1.67
5.20
3+ 10
7 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 9.5 2.35 5.20
4 11
4 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+11.5 1.52 5.60
5 12 JUN615P
4 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+13.5 3.05 10.30
6 13 JUN590P
4 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 +15.0 2.07
3.30
9 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+15.0
10+ (C) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+15.0
11 14 JUL550P
4 +25 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 +15.5 2.75
3.45
12 15
6 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 +17.0 1.87
3.00
13 (9) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+17.0
*** PERIOD 166: RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+17.0
JUN16 1
JUL650C 2 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. -65
- 1.5 - 1.5 1.77
0.60
17 2 JUL555P
4 ..
.. +60 ..
.. .. ..
.. + 1.5 0.0
2.13 3.50
18 3
8 .. ..
+65 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 1.5 2.07
3.50
19 4
4 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 3.0 2.77
4.50
20
5 6
.. .. +75
.. .. ..
.. .. + 1.5
+ 4.5 2.55 4.50
23 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 4.5
24 (C) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0 +
4.5
25 6 JUL625C
5 .. ..
.. .. - 8
.. .. .. -
0.5 + 4.0 0.60
0.55
26 7 JUL540P
6 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 5.0 1.87
2.55
27 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. .. ..
.. 0.0 + 5.0
30 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 5.0
JUL 1 8
JUL610C 6 +35
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. + 0.5 + 5.5
0.95 1.50
2 9 JUL540P
6 .. ..
+60 .. .. .. ..
.. + 1.5 + 7.0
1.60 2.55
3 (P) 1
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.0
7 10 AUG500P
3 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 8.5 1.47
2.40
8 (C) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 8.5
9 11 AUG510P
6 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+10.5 2.75 6.50
10 (C) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+10.5
***
PERIOD 167: RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+10.5
Preview of Period #168, into August: Our next report will begin with period #168 and end with #170. Meanwhile, the bulk of period #168 is already behind us, so we can give you preliminary statistics now.
When period #168 is finished, we expect its results to be very close to this:
Number of signals = 16 or 17. Winning signals = 10 or 11. Total RPS = 9 to 11. Total % achieved = +380 to +440. To learn more about RPS, review Q4 thru Q6 and their answers, in the Anniversary Q&A on the final page of Rel #957.
Long term win ratio will
remain 78%. Long term average per trade
will remain +33%. Thank you
for choosing KVS products.
ANNIVERSARY
Q&A: OP40 IN ITS 13TH YEAR! (KVS Release #957 concludes
with this page)
Q1: What determines the option choice? A1: TE the Trading Edge. It does double duty. The same time it tells you whether the signaled direction favors a call or a put, it names exactly which call or put. KVS knows from many years of experience that SP100 (OEX) options, that last closed in the 1.50-3.50 range, and expire in the current month with at least 2 weeks left to expiration, are the best candidates for 1 to 4 day trades for 40% profit or more.
Q2: Can you go a little further into computing TE ? What data does the formula need? A2: Two options in the price range just mentioned, a call and a put, are handed over every evening to the TE formula, for a few price comparisons. Only the days open, high, low, and closing prices are used. Percent differences, between certain prices in this data base of only 8 prices, are converted by the formula into values normally in the 0 to 10 range. Values are summed separately for the call and the put. The option with the higher sum has the edge. In case of a tie: TE = 0 and theres no trading signal for next day.
Q3: If Id rather not compute the TE myself, can I get it already computed, from the hotline? A3: Yes, you can. The most liked feature of the hotline, your choice of voice or Email, is that it gives you already determined values and decisions.
Q4: The Performance columns, on the signal summary pages, show two values. Do these numbers evaluate the performance of each signal? Are they like a report card for the system? A4: A good name! The left number is the grade that Op40 gets for handling the signal, profitably or not. We call this grade RPS (Rated Performance Score): it rates Op40 performance with a score. The right number CUMUL cumulates the individual scores for a full performance period, commonly 4 weeks.
Q5: Can you give an example or two for the scoring? A5: For every 20% the option rises, RPS =0.5. For a 40% rise, on up to 59%, RPS = 1. For a 60% rise, on up to 79%, RPS = 1.5. For an 80% or larger rise, RPS = 2. With RPS values included, the signal tracking format not only shows the price advances (and occasional declines), but a report card for Op40 as well.
Q6: Where do you measure the price rises from? A6: From the average buy price for the given signal. It is the mid point between the next days opening, which is your first opportunity to act, and the days low, the best available price.
Q7: If I recall right from previous Op40 descriptions: you chose the full name Options 40 In 4 because the system objective is a 40% or larger gain within 4 sessions? A7: Yes, exactly. Relatively few gains turn out to be less than 40%, and theres an occasional loss. Per trade average over the long run has been +33%, see the summary for 168 periods on previous pages.
Q8: I see a percent size breakout of the results. Why not show it all in one column? A8: Most system users like to see how the small, medium, and large returns are distributed, for an easy scan of relative frequency. The RPS numbers are all in a single column: multiply by 40, and thats the percent Op40 gets credit for, not to exceed 80%. Thats the practical limit, because traders seldom try for more, with such quick turnaround, 4 days or less. We do show rises up to 100%, but RPS =2 is max.
Q9: The
record shows Op40 doing quite well, and for a long time now. Why use a second
system to enhance Op40? A9: The 9 to 1 Edge Finder (short
name 9 to 1) started in 2000. It uses the same options as Op40 in its signal
logic and buy/sell formulas, but with different emphasis: accept fewer signals,
but each with a 90% probability of profit within 3 sessions. Teamwork has been beneficial for both systems, heres an excerpt from
previous summaries for the 5 ways it has worked:
There have been 5 ways for teamwork to enhance
results: 1. Op40 paused, TE (Trading Edge) was low, but 9 to 1 traded. 2. Op40
had a signal in one direction, 9 to 1 had one in the other direction. To
assure sufficient volatility for profit in both directions: 9 to 1 checks how
high TE is, and if its 7 or above it yields to Op40 without trading its own
signal. 3. 9 to 1
bought twice. 4. Op40 loss prevented or
offset by9 to 1. 5. Both systems chose the same option, suggesting
higher $ commitment.
Q10: I misplaced the 1996 charter offer. Am I still entitled to it to get your lowest rate? A10: Were celebrating the 39th year for KVS (Key-Volume Strategies) and 13th year for Op40. Youre welcome to the 1996 charter offer, restored for 15 days. Review the Op40 introduction, which includes the charter offer, on our web site: www.key-volume.com.
Q11: How do I get started? A11: Each offer includes system instructions, step by step: choosing your option, buying your option, selling your option. You also get nightly hotline for 3 months, your choice of voice or email. Order with credit card for fastest start (Visa, Master Card, American Express), or mail a check. Specify A or B, or if you already have Op40: C or D.
Choose from the special offers below, by email to kvshotlines@aol.com or by calling
800-334-0411 x12K. Well be prompt! Mail orders: Key-Volume Strategies Inc,
Offer A: Op40 system + 3 months nightly email which we call the hotline, total
$545.
Offer B: Op40 and 9 to 1 Edge Finder (9 to 1) with 3 months nightly email
hotline for both, total $675.
Offer C: If you already have the Op40
system: 9 to 1 system, with 3 months hotline for both systems, $395.
Offer D: If you already have both systems: 3 months hotline for both systems
(extension or renewal) $265.
Anniversary Bonus! Add 1 month
to the offer of your choice. To assure this bonus, do order within 10 days .
Thank you!
KVS #955 review
*********************************************************************
"OPTIONS 40 IN 4" - 13TH YEAR BEGINS - LONG TERM WIN RATIO 78%
OPTION BUYERS ADVANTAGE: ANY
KIND OF MARKET IS OK FOR OP40!
*********************************************************************
Already in its 13th
year, Options "40 In 4" ("Op40") continues to exceed
both its long term goals: 1. A 75% win ratio: 3 of 4
trades producing gains. 2. An average
rise of +24% per option, within 4 sessions. We set the second goal by targeting this
sequence for 4 consecutive, representative signals: +40% ... +40% ... +40% ...
and -25% ... (+120 - 25 =
+95, and
+95/4 = +24). How goals have
been surpassed is shown below and on the next page, summarizing all
performance periods to date. Each period
is normally 25 calendar days but may vary slightly with our publication schedule.
--- TRADING --- WIN:LOSS
-- SIGNAL PERFORMANCE -- TOTAL
PERIOD SIGNALS RATIO TOT % RISE AVGE % RISE "RPS"
1-109
1517 1205:312 +52340% + 34%
1308.5
110 11 9: 2
+ 440% + 40% 11.0
111 10
8: 2 + 280% + 28% 7.0
112 10 6: 4
+ 280% + 28% 7.0
113 10 8: 2
+ 180% + 18% 4.5
114 11 9: 2
+ 360% + 33% 9.0
115 16 10: 6
+ 180% + 11% 4.5
116 8 7: 1
+ 240% + 30% 6.0
117 12 7: 5
+ 240% + 20% 6.0
118 14 11: 3
+ 480% + 34% 12.0
119 11 7: 4
+ 160% + 15% 4.0
120 13 8: 5
+ 180% + 14% 4.5
121 11 10: 1
+ 500% + 45% 12.5
122 17 11: 6
+ 460% + 27% 11.5
123 13 11: 2
+ 740% + 56% 18.5
124 14 11: 3
+ 520% + 37% 13.0
125 14 12: 2
+ 680% + 48% 17.0
126 14 10: 4
+ 360% + 26% 9.0
127 12 9: 3
+ 200% + 17% 5.0
128 15
11: 4 + 520% + 34% 13.0
129 19 16: 3
+ 420% + 22% 10.5
130 15 13: 2
+ 440% + 29% 11.0
131 14 11: 3
+ 400% + 29% 10.0
132 14 12: 2 + 580% + 41% 14.5
133 14 11: 3
+ 560% + 40% 14.0
134 15 8: 7
+ 120% + 8%
3.0
135 15 11: 4
+ 420% + 28% 10.5
136 16 14: 2
+ 640% + 40%
16.0
137 13 10: 3
+ 280% + 22% 7.0
138 11 8: 3
+ 320% + 29% 8.0
139 15 12: 3
+ 640% + 43% 16.0
140 17 9: 8
+ 200% + 12% 5.0
141 16 12: 4
+ 420% + 26% 10.5
142 15 10: 5
+ 320% + 21% 8.0
143 15 10: 5
+ 440% + 29% 11.0
144 13 12: 1
+ 700% + 54% 17.5
145 17 12: 5
+ 580% + 34% 14.5
146 12 9: 3
+ 460% + 38% 11.5
147 14 12: 2
+ 540% + 39% 13.5
148 13 9: 4
+ 360% + 28% 9.0
149 12 8: 4
+ 440% + 37% 11.0
150 12 8: 4
+ 260% + 22% 6.5
151 13 12: 1
+ 680% + 52% 17.0
152 13 11: 2
+ 300% + 23% 7.5
153 14 11: 3
+ 500% + 36% 12.5
154 14 11: 3
+ 420% + 30% 10.5
155 13 11: 2
+ 560% + 43% 14.0
156 13 9: 4
+ 280% + 22% 7.0
157 13 8: 5
+ 300% + 23% 7.5
158
14 12: 2 + 540% + 39% 13.5
ALL 158 2182 1705:477 +72460% + 33% 1811.5
The 78% win ratio (1705
gains/2182 signals) exceeds the 75% goal. Average +33% rise (72460/2182)
exceeds the +24% goal. So results are not
skewed by very large rises, we limit them to +100%, and in computing RPS (Rated Performance Score) we make +80% the max (RPS = 0.5 for every
20%). The system prevents trades
likely to underperform, limiting some periods to 10 trades.
Next page: recent record trade by trade. Anniversary Special! Order Op40 at the 1996 Charter rate and receive besides: 3 months toll free voice,
or Email hotline. Special combo $545. To include 9 to 1 Edge Finder (see other
page) add only $130, total $675. Hotline is your daily price source
and learning aid, with complete price data for the two SP100 options (one call,
one put) whose price action produces the
exclusive Trading Edge. Hotline computes the edge as well!
SIGNAL SEQ CHOICE EDGE
+20 +40 +60
+80 <20% -1 -40 60 RPS CUMUL
BUY TO
AUG14 1
SEP560P 6 ..
.. .. +100 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 2.0 2.10
6.30
15 2
5 .. ..
.. .. ..
-22 .. .. -
0.5 + 1.5 3.35
2.60
16 3
4 .. ..
+60 .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.5 + 3.0 1.60
2.60
17 (C) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 3.0
20+ 4 SEP715C
4 +37 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 + 3.5 1.82
2.50
21+ 5
2 +33 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 + 4.0 1.88
2.50
22+ 6
4 +22 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 + 4.5 1.76
2.15
23+ 7 SEP610P
5 .. ..
.. +90 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 6.5 1.75
3.40
24 8 SEP715C
7 .. +45
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
1.0 + 7.5 1.92
2.80
27 (P) 4
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 7.5
28 9 SEP600P
8 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. -60 - 1.5
+ 6.0 1.75 0.70
29 10 SEP625P
4 +20 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 + 6.5 2.65 3.20
30 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 6.5
31+ (C) 3
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 6.5
SEP 4
11 SEP715C 8
.. .. ..
.. .. .. -45 .. -
1.0 + 5.5 1.92
1.00
5 (P) 2
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 5.5 1.93 2.30
6 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 5.5
7 OCT560P 2
.. .. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. 0.0 + 5.5
10 12
2 .. ..
.. .. ..
-33 .. .. -
0.5 + 5.0 1.35
0.90
11 13 OCT730C
6 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 7.0 2.60 5.50
*** PERIOD 156:
RATED PERFORMANCE MONITOR
+ 7.0
*** SIGNALS FLAGGED + ENHANCED BY 9 TO 1 EDGE FINDER, NEW SUM
+10.5
SEP12 1
OCT730C 10 ..
.. +60 ..
.. .. ..
.. + 1.5 + 1.5
3.40 5.50
13+ 2
10 ..
.. .. +100 ..
.. .. .. +
2.0 + 3.5 3.23
7.60
14+ NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 3.5
17+ NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 3.5
18+ 3 OCT740C
6 .. ..
.. .. ..
-39 .. .. -
0.5 + 3.0 3.12
1.90
19 4
8 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. -40 .. -
1.0 + 2.0 2.35
1.35
20 5
4 +36 ..
.. .. ..
.. .. .. +
0.5 + 2.5 2.02
2.75
21 NONE 0
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 2.5
24 6 OCT660P
7 .. ..
.. .. ..
.. -40 .. -
1.0 + 1.5 2.42
1.40
25+ 7
6 .. ..
.. .. ..
-31 .. .. -
0.5 + 1.0 1.45
1.00
26+ (C) 4
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. 0.0
+ 1.0
27+ 8 OCT735C
6 .. ..
.. +100 .. ..
.. .. + 2.0
+ 3.0 1.95 4.30